The Q. and A.’s and cocktail parties are a wrap. The votes have been cast. And on Tuesday, we’ll find out which movies and artists will have a chance at Academy Awards when the Oscar nominations are announced.
It was an unusually strong year for films, meaning that members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences had some hard choices to make by the time voting closed last week. As I have written throughout this awards season, this year, there are simply more good movies and great performances than there are awards to honor them. When I came up with predictions, I was tied up in knots trying to narrow down the list. But that also means I have some ideas about the names and titles Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid will announce when they reveal the nominees at 8:30 a.m. on ABC and Oscars.com. Here’s what to expect:
“Barbenheimer”: The juggernaut made up of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” dominated the box office last summer and has continued to be a force when it comes to prizes. Both films made strong showings last week when the acting, directing and producing guilds released their nominations, and spots for both on the best picture list are all but guaranteed. For the biopic “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan is now the presumed front-runner for a directing nod, and it’s a good bet you’ll see Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. among the acting nominees. For “Barbie,” the picture is a little less clear in the individual categories. Director Greta Gerwig and star Margot Robbie are likely, but not assured, of spots while Ryan Gosling should be guaranteed a supporting-actor slot.
Double-Digit Nominations: I expect “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer” and the historical-crime tale “Killers of the Flower Moon” to each score double-digit nominations. Thanks to the short lists that the academy released last month, we already know that these movies have a good chance of competing in technical categories like score and sound. Still, there’s one race where “Barbie” can’t max out: Though three songs from the film — “I’m Just Ken,” “Dance the Night” and “What Was I Made For?” — all advanced to the short-list phase, only two songs per film are allowed in the final five.
“The Holdovers”: Alexander Payne’s dramedy about a history teacher, a cook and a student forced to stay behind at a boarding school over winter break has been coming on strong all awards season long. Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, who play the adults on campus, have won key prizes already; look for their names to show up on Tuesday. And besides a likely best picture nod, there could be ones for directing and screenplay as well.
Acting categories: The two Golden Globe winners Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) are strong locks for best actress; the question will be who fills out the rest of the category. Besides Giamatti and Murphy for best actor, expect Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”), leaving just one spot a question mark. In the supporting categories, Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) will probably join Downey and Gosling, while Jodie Foster (“Nyad”), Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”) and Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) will probably line up next to Randolph.
The Best Picture Outlook: The safest bets are “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” “The Holdovers” and “Poor Things” are secure, too. I’m projecting that “Past Lives” and “American Fiction” will make it in as passion picks, and that there’s room for the ambitious biopic “Maestro.”
Foreign-Language Surprises: For best picture, I’m also betting that the French courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall” and the German-language Holocaust drama “The Zone of Interest” will catch the attention of the academy’s increasingly international voting body.
On the Bubble: “The Color Purple,” “May December,” “Society of the Snow” and “Origin” are also hoping for the big prize, but they’ve been slow starters.