Our top tipster Jones Knows unleashes his final best bets column of the season as he goes hunting a 7/1 treble on the final day of the Premier League.
How did we get on last weekend?
Ouch. This one hurt.
Luton did their bit, winning five or more corners on Saturday. Arsenal and Manchester United did their bit, putting on a low-scoring affair where we were on under 3.5 goals. And then Liverpool, who we were on to beat Aston Villa and over 2.5 goals. At 3-1 up with seven minutes to go and Villa looking exhausted and out of ideas, the 6/1 winner was there in the palm of our hands and then Jhon Duran spoiled it. He was hungry like the wolf. I was sick as a parrot. It ended 3-3.
This means we’ve ended the season with a whimper, having now been let down by one leg in six of the last seven weeks for the treble. Arsenal fans will tell you it’s fine margins in this sport.
Profit has been made but it’s admittedly a disappointing return with our old friend variance working in his not-so mysterious ways. One last roll of the dice then to end the season. It’s been a pleasure as always.
P+L = +12.5
1pt treble on both teams to score in Man City vs West Ham, seven or more Brighton corners vs Man Utd and Nottingham Forest to beat Burnley (7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham look a fine bet to score at Man City with the both teams to score option at 4/5 with Sky Bet hard to ignore.
West Ham are an excellent counter-attacking side with Mohamed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen exceptional in transition and City are vulnerable to that style of play. Clean sheets have been hard to come by this season anyway for City, having conceded at least once in 33 of their 46 games across the Premier League and Champions League.
Manchester United have conceded the most corners of any team in the Premier League this season (272), yes – more than Sheffield United. Brighton’s corner line has been set at seven or more corners won at 10/11 with Sky Bet which looks very fair to me considering United conceded eight in the meeting between the two at Old Trafford and have conceded at least seven corners in 13 of their last 17 matches.
And finally, Nottingham Forest look a great price to beat Burnley. Forest have been posting some impressive metrics for a while. If you collate their expected goals for and expected goals against difference since February 1, it comes out at +3.55 which is actually the sixth best record of any team in the Premier League. Burnley sit second bottom on that front at -12.32. At odds-against, they should be capable of swatting aside Vincent Kompany’s men.