Fall Of Key Ukrainian City To Russia Could Be An “Operational Catastrophe”

In the most heavily contested region of Ukraine, Russian troops are now less than eight miles from the key Ukrainian logistics hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. Its capture would set off a myriad of problems for Ukraine, ranging from severed supply lines to potentially allowing Russia to advance across an even greater swath of the eastern portion of the country. Its fall could be “a serious operational catastrophe,” noted one well-known Ukrainian military observer.

The Russians, who say they captured several small towns near Pokrovsk today, are closing in on the embattled city across a seven-mile salient. It is backed by an even larger thrust as its forces continue to capture more territory, according to the Ukrainian DeepState investigative group and Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels.

Bisected by a major rail line and nestled in the middle of three highways with others branching out in several directions, Pokrovsk is a critical bulwark against a large-scale collapse in the region.

Pokrovsk “has become a key distribution hub, supporting Ukrainian forces along a broad frontline from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond,” Tatarigami, a military observer, OSINT and GEOINT analyst and founder of Frontelligence Insight, wrote on Twitter. “Currently, only two places in the Donbas serve this vital function – Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk. The significance of Pokrovsk extends beyond its rail connections – it is also located at a key road juncture, serving a similar role in the transportation and distribution of supplies.”

In particular, the H20 Highway, linking Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka, “has long been a Russian target. Cutting it off would worsen the resupply of troops in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector. The potential loss of Pokrovsk poses an operational threat to logistics in the region, from Vuhledar to Horlivka.”

A little more than 12 miles east of the Dnipro Oblast border, Pokrovsk’s capture could have a regional domino effect, Tatarigami suggested.

“Given Russia’s re-entry into Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024, there’s little reason to think Putin will stop at Donetsk and Luhansk borders,” he explained.

War veteran, activist and lawyer Oleg Symoroz offered a similar take about the importance of Pokrovsk, telling the Ukrainian Obozrevatel news outlet that it must be defended at all costs.

“There is still time to prepare the city for defense,” Symoroz said. “Pokrovsk must be defended, it is of strategic importance.”

“The road to the [Dnipro] region passes through the city of Pokrovsk, so the enemy here must be restrained,” he urged.

Ukraine is trying to do just that, the commander-in-chief of its Armed Forces claimed.

“Battles are extremely tough,” Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday on Telegram. “The enemy throws into battle everything that can move and advance, trying to break through the defense of our troops.”

“The most intense battles,” he added, “are taking place on the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka, further along the border of the Kamiany and Krasny ravines, directly in Novorhodivka, below, in the area of ​​the eastern outskirts of Mykhailivka, which is located in front of Selidovo.”

Pokrovsk is the hottest place on the battlefield, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said on Telegram.

“Since the beginning of the day, the occupiers have already made 34 attempts to dislodge our defenders from their occupied positions in the districts of 11 different settlements,” it claimed. “Almost half of all clashes took place near Selidovoy and Novogrodivka. The defense forces, restraining the enemy onslaught, have already repelled a total of 23 enemy attacks in that direction. Others continue. The enemy suffers significant losses in manpower.”

However, some Russian and Ukrainian sources say Moscow’s forces are advancing with little resistance toward Pokrovsk, something that has raised concerns in Ukraine.

Novohrodovka, a small town a little more than eight miles from Pokrovsk, “was taken by 30 Russians almost without a fight,” the Russian Operation Z Telegram channel claimed. Selidovo, about 10 miles away, “is already half under Russian control!”

An image emerging on social media shows the Russians raising their flag on a building there.

A video shows a Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drone attacking a Russian flag on a high ground near Selidovo. While there are no Russian troops or equipment seen, the fact that the flag is there indicates Ukraine no longer controls that location.

There was also video taken of Russian soldiers planting flags in other parts of the salient.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces hastily built several large strongholds in this area, but they did not help them in any way,” the Russian Military Chronicle Telegram channel reported. “Krutoy Yar and Krasny Yar were liberated earlier.”

Several Russian Telegram channels suggested that the Ukrainian retreat from the area has been so rapid that it is either a ruse or politically motivated.

“The Ukrainian Armed Forces are luring the Russian army, and they themselves are preparing flank attacks on the communications of the advancing group,” the Markov Logic Telegram channel posited as one possibility. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr “Zelensky is preparing another major offensive in the Kursk or Bryansk or Belgorod regions. And he sent reserves there, because it is politically more important.”

One of Ukraine’s most well-known voices, drone innovator Serhii Sternenko, blasted efforts to defend Pokrovsk.

“The defense in the Pokrovsky direction is so disorganized that the Russians themselves do not believe in their advances,” he said in a Twitter rant. “Unfortunately, the higher command is still receiving reports about the ‘controlled situation,’  which is far from being controlled.”

“Poor interaction between brigades and smaller adjacent units,” are among the biggest problems he said.

There is “a shortage of people and their disproportionate distribution in defensive positions,” he continued. “Our EW suppresses our drones better than enemy EW.”

In addition, there is a “disorganization of brigade rotations. One can leave before the other has entered. The enemy uses this and strikes right there. The command does not actually manage the troops, has not established interaction and does not have information about our real positions. There are often cases of units being sent to positions that are already in the rear of the Russians because the [command] thinks that they are behind us. – lies, lies and lies again.”

Meanwhile, inside Pokrovsk, there is an impending sense of doom mixed with the stubbornness of many people who seem to want to stay.

Once a city with about 60,000 people, officials want those remaining to leave. However, there were still “38,000 people and 1,900 children” in the city as of Wednesday, Donetsk Gov. Vadym Filashkin said on Telegram. “All of them must evacuate to safer regions of Ukraine.”

Banks will stop working at the end of the week, he added and only ATMs will be operating starting on Monday.

Despite all the problems, the fall of Pokrovsk may be looming, but might not be immediate, said Tatarigami.

“Does this mean that the loss of Pokrovsk is imminent?” he asked rhetorically. “No, but the likelihood is increasing due to the balance of forces. Despite Ukrainian efforts to draw Russian forces away with the Kursk incursion, Russian leadership is hesitant to redeploy significant forces from Pokrovsk.”

It would be impossible to examine the real possibility that a strategically important town in Ukraine may pass into Russians hands without factoring in the Kursk operation to the discussion. Thousands of troops and their equipment have been committed to that offensive, and the idea that those resources could have been used better to defend Ukrainian territory will only be subject to a growing debate if Pokrovsk falls.

One reason Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk Oblast with about 10,000 troops, including some of its best units and vehicles, was to draw troops out of the Pokrvosk area. However, that did not seem to happen, a former high-ranking Ukrainian officer told us.

“Kursk did not work well regarding this direction,” he said. “The Russians have probably read us.”

Still, Ukraine “has options to stabilize the line, including deploying new brigades, repositioning forces from Kursk and Kharkiv, or reallocating battalions from more stable fronts,” Tatarigami concluded. “However, time is against the defenders, and there is a risk of a serious operational catastrophe.”

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com