Israeli security forces seen during a military operation in the West Bank city of Jenin, February 25, 2025. (photo credit: NASSER ISHTAYEH/FLASH90)
The West Bank and the Egyptian border have the potential to boil over if certain threats are not addressed – and the issues are different in each place.
While Israel has been fighting in Gaza for more than 23 months, other borders and areas have grown increasingly unstable and pose a threat. This is particularly true when it comes to the West Bank and Egyptian border.
Both areas have the potential to boil over if certain threats are not addressed. The issues are different in each place.
In the West Bank, the challenge is keeping a low level insurgency weakened. Israel has successfully checked the attempt by groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad to carve out a zone of control in the northern West Bank. This took several years to accomplish, from roughly 2021 to early 2025.
The attacks by groups in Jenin and Nablus and other places were fueled by illegal arms that have been flowing the West Bank. Large numbers of M-4 or M-16 type rifles as well as modern handguns have been moving into the hands of terrorist groups.
A new phenomenon in the West Bank is the attempt by terrorist groups to build small rockets. This is a new problem and one that mirrors what happened in Gaza in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As such it is clear that the terrorists are seeking to innovate and change. In the early 2000s the main threat in the West Bank came from suicide bombers and some guns.
Joint police-IDF operation foils smuggling of over 30 weapons (credit: IDF SPOKESMAN’S UNIT)
Now, things are changing. The enemy is changing and seeking to find ways to outsmart Israel. Recent attacks all show this to be the case. They usually involve several terrorists who are armed.
Threat of weapons smuggling across Egyptian border rises
While the West Bank is going to need continuous monitoring, a related threat comes from smuggling across the Egyptian border. Recent reports indicate that the size of the smuggling effort has increased and it relies on things such as drones to smuggle guns or parts of guns.
The number of incidents is growing and it appears to mean that there are numerous incidents daily. The full size of this elephant is probably not known, because any one smuggling attempt that is prevented may only be part of the larger problem. In essence, it’s possible we are only seeing the proverbial elephant legs and not the whole animal.
Egypt has been focused on getting a Gaza deal. It also doesn’t want Gazans being pushed into Sinai. It has deployed more forces but it is focused on Gaza. It’s possible that smuggling networks that once sought to help Hamas in Gaza are now shifting operations. This is fueling gun violence in Israel. Most of the killings are in the Arab community but this will one day boil over.
Israel thus faces other threats closer to home. Israel was focused for many years on “third circle” threats such as Iran. Israel prided itself on precision airstrikes and also its ability to try to prepare for dealing with Iran. Gaza was neglected and Hamas was underestimated. Now Hamas is largely weakened in Gaza.
However, as Israel fought in Gaza for 23 months and poured resources into the fight there, it is possible other areas closer to the center are being ignored. What this means, is perhaps the Egyptian border and the West Bank and weapon smuggling networks that feed weapons into Arab communities in Israel and the West Bank, are a serious problem.