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The food basket tracked by the Portuguese Association for Consumer Protection (DECO) reached €254.12, an all-time high.
According to the institution, the price rose by €12.30, an increase of over 5%, compared to the first week of this year. Additionally, the hike represents €66.42, or more than 35% than the price in first week of 2022, when the monitoring of these essential goods began.
“At this point, we can’t attribute the cause to what is happening in the Middle East,” explained Nuno Pais de Figueiredo, DECO’s spokesperson.
“We can’t assign a specific origin becausewe’ve already had peaks of comparable increases during our monitoring. Since the beginning of 2026, the basket has risen to unprecedented levels,” he explained to Euronews.
Among the products analysed, the biggest hikes this month were tuna in vegetable oil, up 33%, frankfurters, which rose 20%, and spiral pasta which increased 12%.
The Iran war continues to cause shocks throughout the global economy.
On Thursday, oil prices rose above $100 dollars again and not even the record release of reserves has brought any relief, which consequently has increased the price of petrol too.
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According to DECO, in Portugal, besides the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, the damage caused by the storms in the last two months has also caused uncertainty.
“We can’t quantify the degree of the increase that can be attributed to the bad weather, because not all crops are grown at the same time, but gradually prices may increase as the stock available to meet the needs that exist phases out,” explained Nuno Pais de Figueiredo.
“In a week’s time, the €50 you used today won’t bring the same products. This means that we can’t predict what will happen the following week and the increase in food prices doesn’t happen in the same proportion as our salaries,” he added.
In times of uncertainty, the most important variable seems to be time. The duration of the conflict is fundamental to concisely assessing its impact. So far, there is nothing to justify the rise in product prices.
“The effects are very short-term, there is no shortage of anything at this time, even transport resources themselves, which are only now starting to increase,” Filipe Garcia, an economist at Financial Market Information (MFI), explained to Euronews.
“Any price increase at the moment is speculative, in the sense that there is no reason to justify it at the moment. Of course, if this continues, the situation could be different,” the economist pointed out.
However, Garcia also clarified that the prospect of a shortage of fertilisers and more expensive fuel could lead to further price increases in the future.
“The vast majority, more than 90%, of the transport of goods in Portugal, both imports and exports, is done by lorry and, naturally, if these prices remain high, this will have an impact.”
In energy terms, the impact of the Iran war on natural gas prices can be felt among families, but it mainly impacts companies.
“When Portugal needs to produce electricity that isn’t renewable, it normally burns natural gas, which means that in the production mix, if we incorporate more gas, it becomes more expensive to produce electricity directly affecting companies,” he stated.
FILE. Aerial view of Serpa solar power plant in Portugal, Mar. 2008 – AP Photo/António Luís Campos
For the expert, depending on the duration of the conflict, the economic impacts could also be felt onPortuguese exports “especially in areas related to construction materials” and also in terms of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
“If all this results in a surge in inflation, the ECB could interpret it as necessary to raise interest rates,” explains Filipe Garcia.
However, there is at least one aspect in which Portugal could benefit from the current situation: tourism.
The realisation that destinations such as Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and Egypt may have security concerns could benefit Portugal, particularly in terms of prices.
“It’s not a question of having many more customers, but of being able to charge more,” Garcia explained.
The rise in prices is reminiscent of the not-so-distant aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when an inflationary effect took Europe and the world by surprise.
“In terms of oil, to have the same kind of reference, there was a preemptive climb here since the beginning of 2022, a bit like waiting for something to happen,” explained the economist regarding the scenario that preceded the war in Ukraine.
“The same thing happened this year, because when the war started, oil was already up 15%. At the beginning of February 2022, we had oil at around $90 and we went up to $130, which is a figure we haven’t reached yet.”
“Now we started from a lower base and went to $120, we’re currently at $100, so here I think it’s comparablem and I realise it is comparable because we’re talking about an absolutely critical area from the point of view of oil worldwide,” Garcia stated.
Although the parallel is inevitable, for the economist it’s important to learn from experience and avoid the mistakes of the past.
“At the time in Portugal, there were price rises that were not backed up by reality. In other words, we started to see warnings of wheat shortages and things like that, which never materialised or were not even expected to materialise.”
“The atmosphere of war, of uncertainty, allowed prices to rise in a way that I would class as unjustified,” explained Garcia while also advocating for “vigilance on the part of consumers and competition authorities” in order to realise whether price rises are “justified or just opportunistic”.
“We know very well thatwhen prices go up, they hardly ever come down. There’s a certain rigidity to the fall and so this can generate a more delicate inflationary effect,” he emphasised.
