There is growing, but still circumstantial evidence that a Syrian Airlines Il-76 Candid cargo plane currently at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria is one that appeared to go missing in the final chaotic moments of Bashar Al Assad’s regime. Rumors and claims swirled that the aircraft had been carrying Assad and was shot down after it disappeared from online flight tracking sites. The Syrian dictator fled the capital Damascus for Khmeimim, and then to Moscow, according to the first statement attributed to him in more than a week that was put out earlier today.
A Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen at Khmeimim Air Base on December 15, 2024. Izzettin Kasim/Anadolu via Getty Images
The statement said to have been from Assad was posted through a channel on the Telegram social media network linked to the now-defunct Syrian regime earlier today, but it is unclear whether or not he actually drafted it and/or put it online. The deposed Syrian dictator has not been seen publicly in more than a week, despite Russian officials saying they have offered him asylum. You can read more about the overall current situation in Syria, which remains very fluid, in our past reporting here.
Assad relocated to Khmeimim via unspecified means and with Russia’s assistance on December 8, according to the statement. It also claims the Syrian strongman had initially intended to continue commanding the fight against rebel forces from the Russian base. So far there is no independent corroboration of this assertion. The War Zone has noted in the past that the Russian air base would be the safest place in the country for Assad in a crisis.
“With no viable means of leaving the base, Moscow requested that the base’s command arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia on the evening of Sunday 8th December,” the statement adds. “This took place a day after the fall of Damascus, following the collapse of the final military positions and the resulting paralysis of all remaining state institutions.”
The basic timeline outlined in the statement aligns with online flight tracking data that showed a Syrian Airlines Il-76 with the Syrian registration YK-ATA fly north from the Damascus area early on December 8. The tracking data for that flight cut out just after it passed the city of Homs, which rebel forces had taken control of on December 7. That, combined with data showing a pronounced left turn and a precipitous drop in speed and altitude, all the way down to 1,625 feet and 130 knots, had quickly sparked rumors that the aircraft had been shot down.
Last night we tracked a Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.
The flight took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.
* We can confirm that flight took place.
* The aircraft was old with an older transponder generation, so some data might be bad or… pic.twitter.com/uCGUnVeug0— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024
Publicly available data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), which is primarily intended to help monitor wildfires and other blazes sparked by natural disasters, had also shown a ‘hot spot’ exactly in the area where the aircraft dropped off radar. The War Zone has been working to obtain high-resolution imagery of this location, but we have not received a clear picture yet. No imagery has otherwise emerged to date showing any apparent Il-76 wreckage in Syria.
Last night we tracked a Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria.
The flight took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs.
* We can confirm that flight took place.
* The aircraft was old with an older transponder generation, so some data might be bad or… pic.twitter.com/uCGUnVeug0— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 8, 2024
FIRMS (NASA’s space-based fire/thermal anomaly tracking system) got a hit early this morning right where the IL-76 disappeared on radar between the Lebanese border and Homs. pic.twitter.com/XQDGR2yLEw
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) December 8, 2024
“The area in which the aircraft was flying, especially the area of Syria between Homs and the coast, is regularly subject to GPS interference—including spoofing and jamming,” a post on December 12 from the official blog for online flight tracking site Flightradar24 says. “With that in mind, analyzing the raw ADS-B data received from YK-ATA shows positional and speed data that strains credulity.”
It’s also worth noting here that YK-ATA’s trip north was unusual, to begin with, based on flight tracking data from ADS-B Exchange that The War Zone reviewed. In the months leading up to Assad’s fall, the plane was very active, but was observed flying routes to and from locations in Africa. Flightradar24‘s December 12 blog post also says that “in recent months the aircraft has visited Benghazi, Libya on a regular basis.” There are now reports that Russia may be looking to make any losses to its presence in Syria by expanding its posture in Libya, though there are no indications that is tied to YK-ATA recent flight history.
An example of a typical flight track for YK-ATA in the months leading up to the fall of Assad’s regime. This particular flight occurred on December 3. ADS-B Exchange
Furthermore, it has now been confirmed that a Syrian Airlines Il-76 is parked in one corner of an open apron at the northeast end of Khmeimim. Satellite imagery The War Zone has reviewed from Planet Labs show the Candid at its current position by December 9. An Il-76 was seen parked between the runways the day before and was not there on December 7.
A Syrian Airlines Yak-40, a passenger plane that is between a large business jet and a small airliner size-wise, also appeared at the base on December 8. The Yak-40 was initially parked on a different apron, but was moved next to the Il-76 by December 13.
The video in the social media post below, which was taken via a drone and that Turkey-based Syria TV put out last week, clearly shows a Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim at multiple points in its runtime.
A satellite image of Khmeimim taken on December 13 showing the Syrian Airlines Il-76 and Yak-40, at left, and a Russian An-124 cargo plane, at right. Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
The Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen at left in this December 10 satellite image of Khmeimim. A Russian Il-76 is also seen on the apron to the right. Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
In addition, a Russian Il-76 was tracked leaving Khmeimim for Moscow on December 8, which further aligns with the timeline in the new statement attributed to Assad.
Altogether, there are signs that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim is YK-ATA and that Assad used that aircraft or the Yak-40 as part of his ultimate flight from the country on December 8. The Il-76 could have been used to help spirit other assets, including regime riches, to Khmeimim and then out of the country. It would have been a top priority for Assad to get physical assets, including gold and currency reserves, to a safe place. The Assad family has already been reportedly squirreling away vast wealth overseas for years. There are reports that other former regime officials have been fleeing to the Russian base in order to get out of the country with the Kremlin’s help, as well.
However, it remains unknown for sure whether or not it is YK-ATA at the Russian base. Syrian Airlines has four Il-76s in its inventory and no imagery has emerged so far clearly showing the registration on the example at Khmeimim. There is still a possibility that YK-ATA went elsewhere or came down.
Questions very much remain about what might happen to the Khmeimim Air Base, including the Syrian Airlines aircraft there, as well as Russia’s naval base at Tartus. The air and naval facilities are highly strategic facilities for the Kremlin that support operations beyond Syria. A substantial withdrawal of Russian forces from the country is underway, but it remains unclear whether or not they are leaving for good. Russian officials insist that they are still trying to hold on to their two prized bases, but there are unconfirmed reports that they could be ordered to vacate the country within a month. You can read more about what is known now about these deliberations in reporting here.
The end of Assad’s regime has already provided the opportunity for unprecedented views of Khmeimim. Maybe now clearer imagery will emerge showing the Syrian Airlines Il-76’s registration code to settle the question of whether this is the ‘missing’ jet for good.
Contact the author: joe@twz.com