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President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldives appeared headed for defeat in the presidential runoff on Saturday, according to initial results of a race that was proving to be as much a referendum on the competition between India and China for influence as it was a chance to determine the small island nation\u2019s next leader.<\/p>\n
Mohamed Muizzu, the mayor of the capital, Mal\u00e9 City, who has pushed for stronger ties with China, had a nearly 10-point lead over Mr. Solih with about half of the votes counted, according to the election commission\u2019s website.<\/p>\n
News outlets in the Maldives, based on their own tally of nearly 100 percent of the votes, declared Mr. Muizzu the winner with a seven-point lead. Mr. Muizzu\u2019s aides began celebrating on social media, although there was no official declaration from the country\u2019s election commission or a message of concession from Mr. Solih.<\/p>\n
When neither managed a first-round victory with half of the vote early this month, the race was pushed into a runoff.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The campaign season has focused on a range of issues, including a housing crisis in the overcrowded capital, which is scarce on land, and the country\u2019s dwindling dollar reserves. That problem has prompted parties to offer competing \u201cde-dollarization\u201d proposals relating to trade.<\/p>\n
But none of the issues have hung as heavily as the influence of the two Asian giants over the future of the Maldives, a nation of about a half-million people that lies 450 miles south of India. The Maldives is particularly important because it sits along busy shipping routes in the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe fact is, either of them will try to control the Maldives \u2014 it is inevitable,\u201d Mohamed Rauhan Ahmed, 27, a political science student, said of China and India on Saturday outside a polling station in Mal\u00e9 City. <\/p>\n
While his preferred candidate was not in the runoff, he said, \u201cFor a change, we experienced peace and freedom in the last five years\u201d under Mr. Solih.<\/p>\n
For China and India, the jostling for influence among their neighbors is nothing new. China enjoyed an early advantage because of its deep pockets and the development loans it brought as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, but India has asserted itself more in the region in recent years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
New Delhi stepped in to assist Sri Lanka with billions of dollars when the country\u2019s economy crashed last year<\/a>. It has also expanded its presence and projects in the Maldives since Mr. Solih won the presidency<\/a> in 2018, ending the five-year tenure of the pro-Beijing Abdulla Yameen, who is now in prison for corruption.<\/p>\n Outside a voting site in the Hulhumal\u00e9 district of the capital, Ahmed Rassam, 36, complained of government graft and a lack of a promised judicial overhaul. \u201cBut mostly, we sensed the unpleasant feeling of losing our nation\u2019s sovereignty to India,\u201d he said in explaining his support for Mr. Muizzu. \u201cHe can bring progressive change.\u201d<\/p>\n As the election race heated up, the main opposition coalition, which includes Mr. Muizzu\u2019s People\u2019s National Congress, made maligning the current government\u2019s growing relations with India a main focus. Using slogans like \u201cIndia Out,\u201d it has denounced Mr. Solih\u2019s government for bringing a small contingent of Indian military personnel to the island.<\/p>\n While Mr. Solih has embraced his ties to India, inviting investment from its companies and development aid from its government, he has denied that it has been at the cost of relationships with other countries. During one election debate, Mr. Solih also rejected the opposition\u2019s assertion about the nature of foreign troops\u2019 activity, saying, \u201cThere is no Indian military personnel conducting military work in the Maldives.\u201d<\/p>\n In the initial round of voting early in September, which featured eight candidates, Mr. Solih got 39 percent, trailing Mr. Muizzu\u2019s 46 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The incumbent was undermined by a messy public split in his Maldivian Democratic Party, with Mr. Solih\u2019s childhood friend Mohamed Nasheed, a former president, parting ways before the election to create his own party. Mr. Nasheed, who helped Mr. Solih become president, had felt increasingly marginalized.<\/p>\n The candidate put forward by Mr. Nasheed\u2019s new party received 7 percent of the vote, making it a potential kingmaker in the runoff. But Mr. Nasheed, now the speaker of Parliament, has found himself in a difficult spot, torn between his longtime closeness to India and the breakdown of his relationship with the president, which he has said cannot be surmounted.<\/p>\n Mr. Nasheed\u2019s party announced that it would \u201crefrain from supporting either candidate\u201d in the runoff, results of which were expected on Saturday evening.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n