\n<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary pledged on Wednesday to push legislators to vote for Sweden\u2019s admittance into NATO, as he faced mounting pressure as the last holdout blocking its entry to the military alliance.<\/p>\n
But Mr. Orban\u2019s intervention, which offered no timeline for a vote and repeated a longstanding assertion that a final decision is not his to make, even though he essentially controls Parliament, left unanswered a question that has shadowed Hungary\u2019s long foot-dragging over NATO\u2019s expansion.<\/p>\n
Why \u201care we messing with the Swedes?\u201d an opposition legislator, Tamas Harangozo, asked nearly a year ago when Mr. Orban\u2019s <\/span>party, whose large majority in Parliament invariably follows his instructions, abruptly dropped plans to vote on Sweden\u2019s NATO membership.<\/p>\n That question took on urgent relevance this week when Turkey\u2019s Parliament voted to accept Sweden into NATO<\/a>. That left Hungary as the last big obstacle impeding efforts to boost Europe\u2019s security in response to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Mr. Orban has often said he wanted Sweden to join NATO, but that his legislators were \u201cnot enthusiastic,\u201d blaming Hungary\u2019s repeated delays in accepting Sweden on lawmakers\u2019 right to make their own decisions.<\/p>\n It was unclear whether Mr. Orban\u2019s remarks Wednesday, posted on social media,<\/a> meant that the Parliament \u2014 which is in recess and not scheduled to return until Feb. 15 \u2014 would swiftly vote on Sweden\u2019s membership.<\/p>\n Hungary\u2019s tough stand on Sweden, up to now, echoes a position it took last month at a gathering of European leaders in Brussels to discuss Ukraine. Mr. Orban stood alone<\/a> to torpedo an aid package for Ukraine worth $52 billion. Leaders will take another run at convincing Mr. Orban to fall into line when they reconvene on Feb. 1.<\/a><\/p>\n Hungarian officials have insisted all along that they would not block Sweden, but have offered different, sometimes contradictory reasons for delays. These include claims of scheduling hiccups, a desire to avoid isolating Turkey, complaints about a Swedish video that casts Hungary in a bad light, and quibbles over remarks that Stockholm officials made years ago, while they were in opposition.<\/p>\n Lurking in the background has been Mr. Orban\u2019s determination to stay on good terms with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and keep Russian natural gas and oil flowing to Hungary. While other European leaders have kept their distance from Mr. Putin and slashed Russian imports, Mr. Orban in October assured Mr. Putin that Hungary \u201cnever wanted to confront Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While Turkey made clear, if shifting, demands, like demanding that Sweden crack down on Turkish dissidents there, or linking NATO accession to a Turkish weapons deal with the United States, Hungary has been unclear on what it wants.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The only constant feature of Hungary\u2019s stalling, according to some analysts, is that it has put Mr. Orban, the leader of a small Eastern European country, where he likes to be: the center of attention as a combative defender of national sovereignty, and courted rather than pushed around by more powerful nations.<\/p>\n Just hours after Turkey indicated Tuesday it would approve Sweden\u2019s bid, Mr. Orban issued a curt \u201cinvitation\u201d to Sweden\u2019s prime minister<\/a> to visit Budapest and \u201cnegotiate\u201d over the future of the military alliance, led by the United States and including significant military powers like France and Britain.<\/p>\n That drew a swift rebuff from Sweden\u2019s foreign minister, Tobias Billstrom, who said he saw \u201cno reason to negotiate\u201d with Hungary, one of the alliance\u2019s least consequential members in military terms but one that is now holding membership effectively ransom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Admission of a new member requires the unanimous support of NATO\u2019s members, and all but Hungary and Turkey granted approvals more than a year ago. Finland\u2019s admission last April<\/a> delivered a strategic defeat for Mr. Putin. But the blow to Russia was softened by Hungary and Turkey scuppering plans that Sweden and Finland would join \u201chand-in-hand.\u201d<\/p>\n That Hungary, a military minnow, would block Sweden, which has a highly developed weapons industry and a modern navy and air force, vital for the defense of the Baltic Sea, has caused widespread dismay and even led to calls in some quarters for Hungary\u2019s expulsion from NATO.<\/p>\n Hungary shares a border with Ukraine and could have played a significant role in Western efforts to help it resist Russian forces. But it refused to follow Poland in offering a transit route for weapons, and has consistently undermined other support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n Peter Kreko, director of Political Capital, a Budapest research group critical of Mr. Orban, said Hungary\u2019s defiance was baffling given its past subjugation by Moscow, and its hard-fought efforts to join the West. Geopolitical interests, Mr. Kreko said, have perhaps played a role \u2014 Hungary under Mr. Orban has long cultivated close ties with Russia and Turkey<\/a> \u2014 but \u201cthis strange saga is also partly about Orban\u2019s ego and his own political narcissism.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cIf you are the troublemaker you have to be taken seriously,\u201d Mr. Kreko said. \u201cThis is a typical feature of authoritarianism: you have to pay theatrical respect to the strongman.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Szabolcs Pany, a Hungarian investigative journalist, said he doubted the \u201cego theory\u201d and was perplexed by Mr. Orban\u2019s goals. A more plausible theory, he added, is \u201csome sort of deal with Russia,\u201d though that, he conceded, is not supported by hard evidence. \u201cIt is all a mystery unless you believe conspiracy theories,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Given that Hungary\u2019s Parliament is in recess, and assuming Turkey does not delay filing its formal approval, Hungary has already broken a promise made last summer by its foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, that \u201cwe will not be the last one to ratify. This is a promise that we will keep for sure.\u201d He repeated that promise <\/span>in December.<\/p>\n The constant chopping and changing has infuriated even Hungary\u2019s closest friends. Poland, governed until an October election by a nationalist party that saw eye-to-eye with Mr. Orban on most issues, was among those left feeling betrayed.<\/p>\n After a meeting with Mr. Orban<\/a> in November 2022, Poland\u2019s then conservative prime minister, Mateus Morawiecki, declared that the Hungarian leader had given a firm commitment to ratify the NATO membership of both Finland and Sweden \u201cas soon as possible.\u201d That, Mr. Morawiecki said, was a \u201cpromise.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Four months later, Hungary accepted Finland but left Sweden in the cold \u2014 and embarrassed Mr. Morawiecki, who has since been replaced as by Donald Tusk, a centrist politician highly critical of what he sees as Hungary\u2019s democratic backsliding.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Mr. Orban sees time on his side, looking to June elections for the European Parliament, which could boost nationalist forces that share his wariness of Ukraine and sympathy for Russia. The Parliament, currently dominated by mainstream groups hostile to Mr. Orban and Mr. Putin, last week adopted a resolution condemning<\/a> what it described as the \u201cdeliberate and systematic efforts of the Hungarian government to undermine the E.U.\u2019s founding values.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Orban has long delighted in playing a scourge of what he derides as the \u201cwoke globalist elite.\u201d His terrible relations with much of Europe, and the Biden administration, only buttress his main selling point at home as an indefatigable champion of Hungarian national interests.<\/p>\n