Here we go. Or should we say: Here we go again.<\/p>\n
Saturday in that feverish baseball hotbed of Atlanta, Ga., it\u2019s the National League Division Series rematch we\u2019ve been waiting for the last 355 days. It\u2019s Braves<\/a> versus Phillies<\/a> in the finals of the NL East October Madness Regional.<\/p>\n And while it\u2019s mostly true that the sequel is never as good as the original, are we sure that\u2019s going to apply to Braves-Phillies 2.0?<\/p>\n Let\u2019s go with no, because A) this isn\u2019t \u201cReturn to the Blue Lagoon,\u201d and B) that was clearly how the occupants of a beer-soaked clubhouse in Philadelphia were voting Wednesday night.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s gonna be a war,\u201d said Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm<\/a>, looking as if he\u2019d just completed swimming 800 meters in an Olympic-sized pool filled with Budweiser.<\/p>\n Minutes earlier, the Phillies had finished sweeping another NL East rival, the Marlins<\/a>, in the Wild Card Series, with a 7-1 thrashing<\/a> in front of an announced crowd of 45,738 roaring humans whose vocal cords may not be the same for six months. Bryson Stott squashed the first grand slam<\/a> of his big-league life. Aaron Nola spun seven shutout innings<\/a>. The sounds of the local baseball anthem, \u201cDancing on My Own,\u201d rocked the South Philadelphia night, in 45,000-part harmony.<\/p>\n And when the music finally died down, the Phillies were still dancing, all right, onward to Atlanta, where the best team in baseball awaits.<\/p>\n No one has to explain to the Phillies that the Braves are\u00a0the\u00a0<\/i>powerhouse in this sport<\/a>. Those Braves won 104 games. They finished the season with the same Weighted Runs Created Plus (125) as the mighty 1927 Yankees. They broke more records than Michael Phelps.<\/p>\n But none of that is a secret to the NL East runners-up. These two teams have played each other 36 times in the last two seasons. But the four they each remember most are the four games of the 2022 NLDS, when an 87-win Phillies team upset a 101-win Braves juggernaut, in a series that has reverberated through the baseball bloodstreams of both teams and fan bases ever since.<\/p>\n In Philadelphia, it was a series that ignited a love story between a city and its baseball team that is still raging. In Atlanta, it\u2019s a memory the Braves would love<\/em> to extinguish next week. So what might it bring us? Before we get into that, how \u2019bout a little history lesson?<\/p>\n Has any two-time division champ ever been ousted from the postseason by the same division rival two years in a row?\u00a0<\/b>I asked that question to my friends from STATS Perform late Wednesday night. The answer will rekindle some memories.<\/p>\n Only twice in the wild-card era have any two division rivals met in the postseason two Octobers in a row. See if you can guess which ones:<\/p>\n 2003-04 Yankees<\/a>\u2013Red Sox<\/a>:\u00a0<\/b>In 2003, Aaron Bleeping Boone happened, and the Yankees<\/a> broke New England\u2019s hearts one more time. In 2004, the most shocking baseball comeback of all time happened, and the Red Sox finally stomped out the Curse of the Bambino. Epic.<\/p>\n 2004-05 Astros<\/a>\u2013Cardinals<\/a>:\u00a0<\/b>In 2004, the Cardinals survived the greatest seven-game series nobody remembers (because the Red Sox and Yankees cast a giant eclipse over the rest of the postseason). In 2005, the Astros survived Albert Pujols\u2019 breathtaking Game 5 lead-flipping, ninth-inning homer off Brad Lidge, and went on to play in their first World Series.<\/p>\n But what\u2019s the lesson there?\u00a0<\/b>That never has\u00a0any\u00a0<\/i>team succeeded in doing what the Phillies will attempt to do in the next round: topple the first-place team in their own division in two postseasons in a row. So does that history matter? Well, we\u2019re about to find out.<\/p>\n So now what?<\/b> Let\u2019s begin with an impartial observer, Marlins<\/a> manager Skip Schumaker. His team showed up in Philly this week with big dreams of doing to the Phillies what Arizona did to Milwaukee<\/a>. Then something very different happened \u2014 by which he means Zack Wheeler<\/a> and Aaron Nola<\/a> happened. The Marlins scored one run off them in 13 2\/3 innings of ace-esque mastery, and that was that.<\/p>\n \u201cWheeler and Nola,\u201d Schumaker said. \u201cThose guys are going to haunt my dreams. Last year they kicked us out (when he was the bench coach) in St. Louis. And this year they kicked us out here in Miami.\u201d<\/p>\n But next week, they\u2019re the Braves\u2019 problem, not his. At least not anymore. The Marlins played the Phillies and Braves 28 times combined this year. So how do they stack up? Schumaker has some thoughts.<\/p>\n On how they match up:\u00a0<\/b>\u201cThey are two of the best teams in the major leagues that we face. Incredibly tough to navigate a lineup, as far as bullpen matchups. There are no holes. There\u2019s star power up and down the lineup that are postseason-tested.\u201d<\/p>\n On whether the Phillies\u2019 pitching can shut down the Braves\u2019 thumpers: \u201c<\/b>The Nola-Wheeler combo right there was as good as you\u2019re going to find in the major leagues. And their back-end bullpen, with (Jos\u00e9) Alvarado and a playoff-tested (Craig) Kimbrel \u2014 and (Gregory) Soto was throwing 102 mile an hour sinkers, whatever it was. They are really tough, and they\u2019re coached really, really well.\u201d<\/p>\n On the terrifying Braves offense<\/b>: \u201cObviously the Braves are \u2026 we didn\u2019t really know how to pitch them, honestly. I don\u2019t think the league did. We were trying everything, and it starts with, obviously, the top and that middle of the order. \u2026 They make you pay when you make a little bit of a mistake.\u201d<\/p>\n So this will be awesome, Schumaker said. So awesome, in fact, that even after spending the last seven months getting bludgeoned by both of them, \u201cI\u2019m looking forward to watching it,\u201d he said, and promised he meant every word of that. But if you haven\u2019t paid as close attention as the Marlins manager has, perhaps you\u2019re asking another question:<\/p>\n Why would this even be close?\u00a0<\/b>After all, the Braves finished 14 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East standings. The Braves also scored 151 more runs (947-796), whomped 87 more homers (307-280) and topped the Phillies in OPS by an eye-popping 80 points (.845-.765).<\/p>\n But maybe, Phillies manager Rob Thomson suggested, this is one time when looking at the totality of that six-month season might not paint an accurate picture.<\/p>\n \u201cThe one thing the Braves did,\u201d Thomson said Wednesday night, \u201cis they played consistent baseball all year long. I mean, from day one, they really didn\u2019t go into any large losing streak that I know of. And we struggled getting out of the gate, so that\u2019s something we\u2019ve got to work on in spring training. But I think we\u2019re playing very good baseball right now. And I think it\u2019s going to be a really good series.\u201d<\/p>\n So what Thomson and those players he manages would like to do is imagine that the season actually started on June 3, which is about when\u00a0these\u00a0<\/i>Phillies finally showed up and began playing, over the next four months, like a 101-win team.<\/p>\n If we start the comparison game with just those last four months, we find that the Braves and Phillies were either the two best teams in the National League the rest of the way, or at least were in a three-way conversation that also included the Dodgers<\/a>.<\/p>\n From that point on, the Braves and Phillies ranked 1-2 in the NL in wins, homers, slugging, barrels, average exit velocity and a bunch of other offensive departments, traditional and non-traditional.<\/p>\n But on the other side of the ball, in that span, the Phillies ranked No. 1 in the league in pitching Wins Above Replacement, according to FanGraphs. And the Braves placed a surprisingly distant sixth. But it was Atlanta that ranked first in staff strikeout percentage (24.7 percent), with the Phillies a close third (23.9) and Miami wedged in between them (at 24.5).<\/p>\n So there\u2019s an argument to be made that the Phillies have a supply of arms deep enough to neutralize all those Braves mashers, while uncertainty about the health and readiness of Max Fried<\/a> and Charlie Morton<\/a> creates questions about whether the Atlanta rotation can do the same to the Phillies\u2019 nine-deep offense in this NLDS.<\/p>\n We\u2019ll find that out on the field, too, of course. But there\u2019s one more thing you should know:<\/p>\n This is a\u00a0Rivalry,\u00a0<\/i>with a capital \u201cR.\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n At a time when Yankees-Red Sox, Dodgers-Giants and Cardinals-Cubs<\/a> are no longer the storybook material we\u2019re used to, is it possible that\u00a0this \u2014 <\/i>Braves versus Phillies \u2014 is suddenly \u2026<\/p>\n The best rivalry in baseball?\u00a0<\/b>Hey, why the heck not. Both teams used that word, \u201crivalry,\u201d repeatedly when they played each other in home and away matchups last month. And while the Braves won the season series, eight games to five, the Phillies won four of the seven games in Atlanta \u2026 not to mention both NLDS games in Philadelphia last October.<\/p>\n But are you familiar with rivalries and how they really work? It isn\u2019t numbers that define them \u2014 any kind of numbers. It\u2019s the look in all those eyes and the emotion that pulsates through the ballpark that truly define the best rivalries in sports. And it\u2019s all there when these two teams play.<\/p>\n \u201cI mean, it\u2019s a war, man,\u201d Bohm said. \u201cIt\u2019s a bunch of really good players on the field, just battling. They don\u2019t give anything away, and they play clean baseball. They\u2019ve got a good team, and we\u2019ve got the same. \u2026<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s this time of year. You play 27 outs, and you battle it out, and you just see where the chips fall.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThese games are stressful,\u201d Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto<\/a> said. \u201cVery stressful. Just navigating through that lineup is not easy because they have guys that have really good at-bats, and they do damage throughout their whole lineup \u2014 a lot like I feel our lineup is. So there\u2019s a reason why both of us keep showing up every postseason and having series like this.\u201d<\/p>\n So here we go. Fire up your favorite narratives, whatever it takes. Braves seek revenge \u2026 Phillies seek to prove last year was no fluke.\u00a0<\/i>\u2026 You know how this stuff works. But if you really know, you understand that it isn\u2019t narratives, or last year\u2019s highlight reels, that decide any postseason series.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re starting over,\u201d Realmuto said. \u201cIt\u2019s a brand new series. They had an incredible year this year. But we all know we have confidence in this clubhouse, and I think last year\u2019s series helped that. But that doesn\u2019t mean we can just show up and beat them. We\u2019ve got to play well. And we\u2019ve got to do what it takes.\u201d<\/p>\n But Realmuto also confessed that a year later, he still finds himself thinking about this electric NLDS Game 3 moment \u2014 the Rhys Hoskins bat-slam long ball<\/a> that felt as if it fueled everything that came afterward, on the Phillies\u2019 shocking ride to the World Series.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udca5 BAT \u0336F\u0336L\u0336I\u0336P\u0336 SLAM \ud83d\udca5<\/p>\n The Phillies take a 4-0 lead thanks to this three-run home run BOMB from Rhys Hoskins.<\/p>\n \ud83c\udfa5 @MLB<\/a> | #Postseason<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/nn7CKpIT47<\/a><\/p>\n
\n The Phillies celebrate after sweeping the Marlins. Next up: a date with the Braves. (Bill Streicher \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i3.wp.com\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/10\/05061111\/USATSI_21490004-1-scaled.jpg\")
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\n Zack Wheeler will start Game 2 for the Phillies. Aaron Nola will start Game 3. (John Geliebter \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/10\/05060648\/USATSI_21282394-1-scaled.jpg\")
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\n The Braves hit 307 home runs this season, 58 more than the next-closest team. (Robert Edwards \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/cdn.theathletic.com\/app\/uploads\/2023\/10\/05061559\/USATSI_21413360-scaled.jpg\")
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\n The Braves clinched the NL East title in Philadelphia last month. (Eric Hartline \/ USA Today)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n