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We\u2019ve only just gotten this year\u2019s Oscar nominations, but is it already time to begin looking ahead to next season?<\/p>\n
I can sense you bristling, and I understand. \u201cKyle, no,\u201d you\u2019ve just muttered, because we\u2019re on a first-name basis now and you\u2019re still mired in dinner-party discourse over whether the snub of Greta Gerwig<\/a> in the best-director race is an extinction-level event.<\/p>\n I hear your concerns, and I share them. But even as we continue to sift through the wreckage and tea leaves following this season\u2019s Oscar nominations, I\u2019ve just come back from snowy Park City, Utah, where the 40th edition of the Sundance Film Festival<\/a> debuted a full slate of new movies that could give shape to next year\u2019s awards race. Make no mistake, trophy-related considerations can affect these films\u2019 fortunes even at this early date: I\u2019ve already heard that one terrific Sundance indie has had trouble selling because of concerns that its lead would be unavailable for a full-blown press tour next awards season.<\/p>\n Could any of these films follow best-picture nominee \u201cPast Lives<\/a>,\u201d which premiered at Sundance last January, or even \u201cCODA\u201d (2021)<\/a>, the first Sundance movie to win the top Oscar?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The likeliest film to factor into next year\u2019s race is \u201c<\/strong>A Real Pain<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> a dramedy starring Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin as mismatched cousins who embark on a road trip through Poland to better understand the personal history of their late grandmother, a Holocaust survivor. Eisenberg, who also wrote and directed the film, plays the by-the-book cousin and generously hands the flashy, sure-to-be-nominated role to Culkin: His cousin is a charismatic hot mess, and the Emmy-winning \u201cSuccession\u201d actor zigs and zags through every scene like a freewheeling live wire.<\/p>\n Searchlight bought<\/a> \u201cA Real Pain\u201d for $10 million, and I could see it making a deep run into awards season. Pronounced a \u201cknockout\u201d<\/a> by our critic Manohla Dargis, it\u2019s the kind of thematically resonant, culturally specific comedy that voters often respond to. Most of all, I think movie folks will be eager to welcome Culkin into their club: They were just as obsessed with \u201cSuccession\u201d as their TV brethren, and it\u2019s finally their turn to shower the 41-year-old with awards attention.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Outrun,\u201d<\/strong> based on the memoir from Scottish author Amy Liptrot, gives four-time Oscar nominee Saoirse Ronan her best contemporary role since \u201cLady Bird\u201d and a strong shot at another awards-season run. Directed by Nora Fingscheidt, the film casts Ronan as a young hipster who returns to her hometown in Scotland\u2019s remote Orkney Islands after her alcoholism gets out of hand. \u201cThe Outrun\u201d is confidently made, and it\u2019s great to see Ronan in top form after recent missteps like \u201cFoe\u201d and \u201cSee How They Run\u201d; between this and her forthcoming role in Steve McQueen\u2019s \u201cBlitz,\u201d she\u2019s certain to have a major year ahead.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Ronan is also name-checked throughout \u201cMy Old Ass,\u201d<\/strong> an incredibly winning comedy about a teenage girl (Maisy Stella) who manifests an older version of herself (Aubrey Plaza) during a particularly potent mushroom high. Alongside audience award-winner <\/a>\u201cDidi,\u201d<\/a><\/strong> about a Taiwanese American boy navigating his awkward teenage years, it was one of two coming-of-age comedies that made a major impression on Sundance. Though that\u2019s not always a genre that awards voters take to, nearly everyone I spoke to had these films near the top of their personal-best lists.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Received more respectfully were three dramas about family trauma: \u201cExhibiting Forgiveness,\u201d<\/strong> with a juicy role for the \u201cMoonlight\u201d star Andr\u00e9 Holland as a painter who struggles with letting his father back into his life; \u201cIn the Summers,\u201d<\/strong> another fraught dad drama (this one won Sundance\u2019s grand-jury prize); and \u201cRob Peace,\u201d<\/strong> about a bright community activist who must navigate \u2014 you guessed it \u2014 a tricky relationship with his father, played by the film\u2019s director, Chiwetel Ejiofor, in a role that could see some supporting-actor traction.<\/p>\n Adventurous voters for shows like the Film Independent Spirit Awards may gravitate toward some of Sundance\u2019s most one-of-a-kind offerings, like the trippy \u201cI Saw the TV Glow,\u201d<\/strong> about teenagers who find themselves via a cult supernatural series, and \u201cSasquatch Sunset,\u201d<\/strong> which casts Riley Keough and Jesse Eisenberg as unrecognizable Bigfoots and ought to be in contention for a hair-and-makeup Oscar, if that branch of the academy is keen to make a daring choice.<\/p>\n Many of the movies nominated for the best-documentary Oscar first premiered at Sundance, but as that category has started trending more toward homegrown international films, it\u2019s hard to tell whether the documentaries that connect with festgoers in Park City will still click with the academy\u2019s membership. One I expect to keep hearing about regardless is \u201cWill & Harper,\u201d<\/strong> which sends Will Ferrell on a road trip with his longtime friend Harper Steele, who has come out as trans. This went over like gangbusters at its premiere, even as Utah lawmakers spent that week passing anti-trans legislation.<\/p>\n There\u2019s also \u201cDaughters,\u201d<\/strong> which won Sundance\u2019s audience award in its documentary category as well as the festival-favorite award across all films presented. This one is an emotional whopper, following a group of young girls and their incarcerated fathers as they prepare for a daddy-daughter dance at the prison. At a fest loaded with movies about the complicated relationship between fathers and their children, \u201cDaughters\u201d topped all competition. I saved it for last here because even thinking about the film prompts wrenching sobs, so that\u2019s my cue to cut off all this speculation and return to your regularly scheduled broadcast (which is weeks of wondering whether Christopher Nolan will finally win that Oscar).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n