The War Zone\u00a0<\/em>readers can catch up on our previous rolling coverage here<\/u>.<\/p>\nThe Latest<\/h2>\n Little has changed on the battlefield over the past 48 hours, with small territorial turnovers continuing in the Robotyne-Verbove salient in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said it repelled Russian attacks near Novoprokopivka while the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces “took intensive actions to capture favorable lines and new positions and repelled two counter-attacks.”<\/p>\n
A well-known Ukrainian milblogger and reserve officer who goes by the pseudonym Tatarigami offered a stark assessment of Russia\u2019s ability to counter the counteroffensive.<\/p>\n
Claims that the Russians are running out of troops to defend against the counteroffensive are not only wrong, they are \u201cpotentially harmful,\u201d according to Tatarigami.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/tatarigami_ua\/status\/1710382234803290154?s=12\\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A<\/u><\/p>\n
\u201cThis information is not only inaccurate but also lacks substantiated data on the location and availability of Russian reserves,\u201d said Tatargami of a counteroffensive grinding out incremental gains at high costs. \u201cIn the past, I made a similar comment when regiments from the 76th Division started moving southward. Unfortunately, I continue to witness the deployment of additional units and reserves across various parts of the frontline.\u201d<\/p>\n
Russia may not be able to mount a new offensive, he said, but \u201cthey appear to be deployed in the areas where Ukrainian forces might breach defenses. Their purpose seems to be slowing down Ukrainian troops and severely limiting their ability to exploit any breakthroughs.\u201d<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/astraiaintel\/status\/1710317326875181080<\/u><\/p>\n
Russia, he added, doesn\u2019t need to mount an offensive to blunt Ukrainian goals.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey aim to undermine both political and military support for Ukraine,\u201d he said. \u201cThe enemy remains formidable and capable, despite all their shortcomings. They still possess significant anti-tank capabilities, the ability to deploy remote minefields, employ loitering munitions, maintain artillery and counter-battery capabilities, and continue fortifying their defenses.\u201d<\/p>\n
The narrative that Russians are on the verge of collapse \u201cfosters unrealistic expectations and diverts attention from the necessity for long-term planning and vision. It can lead to an overemphasis on short-term optimism and hinder the recognition of mistakes, the need for change, or an increase in support.\u201d<\/p>\n
Earlier this spring, \u201cI cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations and the belief that Russian defenses would collapse within weeks or days, leading to celebrations in liberated Crimea,\u201d he said. \u201cI emphasized that a counter-offensive alone would not win this war and that we needed to plan for the long term. I hope that now, my message will resonate more strongly.\u201d<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheStudyofWar\/status\/1710331583708742039<\/u><\/p>\n
Several Russian milbloggers are reporting that another Russian aircraft was shot down by friendly fire, apparently the second one in as many weeks.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1710289373256696262<\/u><\/p>\n
\u201cYour face when you publish a fresh air defense launch, and an hour later you read the news about a Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft being shot down by \u2018friendly fire,\u201d the Voin DV Telegram channel wrote Friday on a post with the iconic two monkey meme.<\/p>\n
\u201cPS. We allow ourselves to joke about this topic only because the pilot survived. The situation itself with the latest fire is not funny at all.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAt this rate of work of our valiant air defense, we will soon be left without aviation,\u201d the Fighterbombmer Telegram channel said.<\/p>\n
Last week, Fighterbomber posted a short message about an Su-35 Flanker being shot down, with other reporting claiming Russian air defenses shot it down near Tokmak in Zaporizhizhia Oblast. You can read more about that in our initial reporting here<\/u>.<\/p>\n
It’s a situation the U.K. Defense Ministry picked up on earlier this week.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/DefenceHQ\/status\/1709440815666250075?t=zjgaijIucfa-xbVNB5Kdxw\\u0026s=19<\/u><\/p>\n
In the wake of this latest incident, yet another milblogger complained about the communications between Russian aircraft and air defense forces and suggested the creation of an air battle management system similar to those in other countries.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t want to point my finger again, but the enemy has had analogues of such systems for a long time,\u201d the Military Informant Telegram channel wrote. \u201cThis does not eliminate friendly fire incidents, but it does reduce them significantly.\u201d<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/boris_beissner\/status\/1710305861451559347<\/u><\/p>\n
In addition to announcing a new $199 million aid package for Ukraine consisting mainly of badly needed artillery ammunition, Sweden\u2019s defense minister formally broached the issue of that nation giving some of its Jas-39 Gripen<\/u> fighters to Kyiv.<\/p>\n
Pal Jonson told a news conference the armed forces were due to report by Nov. 6 on the potential for sending some of those jets to Ukraine after the government asked them to assess the issue, Reuters<\/em> reported.<\/p>\nBut he reiterated that Sweden would – for domestic security reasons – need to join NATO before it would be able to potentially spare any fighter jets. Sweden is seeking membership in the alliance although its accession has been held up<\/u> by member states Turkey and Hungary.<\/p>\n
Jonson\u2019s public announcement that Sweden is at least studying how it might provide Ukraine with Gripens follows previous reporting suggesting that Sweden was considering such a move. You can read more about that, and how the aircraft could help Ukraine, in our initial reporting on the topic here<\/u>.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/front_ukrainian\/status\/1710219393282576607?s=12\\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A<\/u><\/p>\n
The 480th Fighter Squadron (480th FS)\u00a0is the U.S. Air Forces In Europe (USAFE’s) “only suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) squadron, providing\u00a0airpower operations to NATO, EUCOM, and AFRICOM with a ‘Combat Ready’ F-16 squadron prepared to deploy combat airpower in support of Joint, NATO & coalition taskings,” according to the Air Force<\/u>.<\/p>\n
An image has emerged of one of its F-16 pilots rocking a Ghost of Kyiv<\/u> patch, an especially symbolic display given where those fighters fly.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/blocksixtynine\/status\/1710249879392710673?s=20<\/u><\/p>\n
The German Rheinmetall arms maker is sending Ukraine \u201ctens of thousands\u201d of L15 155mm ammunition rounds.<\/p>\n
The company announced Friday that those rounds are headed to Kyiv as part of a larger deal, funded by the German Bundeswehr, to also provide 155mm Assegai artillery rounds to the German military.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe order is worth a figure in the lower three-digit million-euro range,\u201d the company said in a media release Friday. \u201cDelivery is scheduled to take place in 2024.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAs recently as July 2023, Rheinmetall announced the signing of a new framework agreement for artillery ammunition with the Bundeswehr and the expansion of an existing agreement,\u201d the company said. \u201cThe contracts encompass the delivery of several hundred thousand shells, fuses and propelling charges.\u201d<\/p>\n
The war in Ukraine \u201chas compelled the armed forces of numerous nations to replenish their ammunition stocks. In this context, Rheinmetall has already booked several large orders for artillery ammunition.\u201c<\/p>\n
The recently concluded framework agreement for 155mm artillery ammunition “runs until 2029 and represents a gross potential order volume of around \u20ac1.2 billion ($1.27 billion). The first orders of service and practice ammunition came directly after the contract was signed.”<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/KyivPost\/status\/1710308611547611368<\/u><\/p>\n
North Korea has begun transferring artillery to Russia, a U.S. official told CBS News<\/em><\/u>.<\/p>\n“It was not immediately clear whether the transfer is part of a new, long-term supply chain or a more limited consignment, or what North Korea is getting in return for the weapons,” the outlet reported.<\/p>\n
Pyongyang’s support for Moscow “appears to be the culmination of the rare summit last month in Moscow<\/u>, when Kim Jong Un traveled by train to meet Putin in person.”<\/p>\n
As we reported at the time<\/u>: “Kim pledged to support Russia in what he described as a \u201csacred fight\u201d against the West at large. Although details of a rumored deal involving the expected transfer of more North Korean artillery ammunition were not disclosed, the talks did touch upon possible Russian assistance for\u00a0North Korea\u2019s\u00a0<\/u>‘space program<\/u>,’ and, more broadly, \u201copportunities for bilateral military-technical cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/RALee85\/status\/1710321700628308243?s=20<\/u><\/p>\n
A Russian missile strike on the city of Kharkiv killed at least two people and injured at least 30 others, Ukrainian officials said Friday.<\/p>\n
A woman and her 10-year-old grandson were killed in the attack, Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said Friday on his Telegram channel. The dead boy\u2019s 11-month-old brother was also injured.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/zelenskyyua\/status\/1710205509142245586?s=12\\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A<\/u><\/p>\n
Friday\u2019s attack on Kharkiv city follows one yesterday near in the oblast near Kupiansk that killed at least 52 people, one of the deadliest Russian strikes in months. The death toll increased since the initial reporting Thursday.<\/p>\n
That attack hit a cafe and shop in the village of Groza. There was also one on a hospital in Kherson Oblast.<\/p>\n
\u201cToday, around 1:15 p.m., the Russians shelled a cafe and a shop in the village of Groza in the Kupyan district, where there were many civilians,\u201d Oleh Synehubov, Head of Kharkiv region military administration, said on his Telegram channel Thursday. \u201cNow rescuers continue to work on the spot. As of now, the bodies of 48 dead people, including a 6-year-old boy, have been recovered from the rubble.\u201d<\/p>\n
Another six people, including one child, were injured in that attack.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/kyivpost\/status\/1709916013280514455?s=12\\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A<\/u><\/p>\n
\u201cA demonstrably brutal Russian crime \u2013 a rocket attack on an ordinary grocery store, a completely deliberate act of terrorism,\u201d Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on his Telegram channel. \u201cAs of this time, more than 48 dead are known. My condolences to all those who have lost loved ones! Assistance is provided to the wounded.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Kherson Oblast, \u201cRussian troops shelled Beryslav, destroying a hospital, Head of Kherson Oblast Military Administration Oleksandr Prokudin said on his Telegram channel. <\/u>\u201cThe fourth floor was completely destroyed, another floor was partially destroyed. Emergency vehicles were also damaged by enemy fire.\u201d<\/p>\n
In addition, two medical workers were injured, he said.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/KyleJGlen\/status\/1709893267343434108<\/u><\/p>\n
There was a haunting moment after the strike in Groza. As people were frantically searching for survivors, someone tried calling one of the victims. One of them had a phone in a pocket with a ringtone of the patriotic Ukrainian song Chervona Kalyna that went off as someone tried to find them.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/jayinkyiv\/status\/1710262497960161317?s=12\\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A<\/u><\/p>\n
Commenting on the attack on Groza, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov on Friday claimed Russia does “not strike at civilian objects. Strikes are made on military infrastructure, military personnel and representatives of military leadership.”<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1710254096702132256?s=12\\u0026t=BQRSNakUKt7_8ssZiGBW-A<\/u><\/p>\n
Ukraine was once again forced to shut down<\/u> a Danube River ferry crossing to Romania overnight after another Russian drone attack.<\/p>\n
No one was injured in the attack on the port and border infrastructure, but the Orlivka ferry has been temporarily suspended, according to Ukraine\u2019s State Border Guard<\/u>.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll vehicles are diverted to other directions,\u201d the State Border Guard warned. \u201cCitizens are asked to take into account the above temporary circumstances when planning a trip to or from Romania.\u201d<\/p>\n
Travelers needing to cross over to Romania were advised to travel to Reni, a port about 12 miles to the northwest.<\/p>\n
Ferry service at that crossing was suspended on Sept. 26 after a previous drone attack there<\/u>.<\/p>\n
The attack on Olivka was one of many carried out by Russian drones that night, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, which claimed that 25 of 33 Shahed-136 drones were eliminated.<\/p>\n
The attack was captured on video, shot from across the Danube in Romania, showing air defense munitions streaking into the air trying to shoot down the drones. The loud noise of at least one of the drones can be heard before the video ends with a fireball, apparently from one of them crashing.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/clashreport\/status\/1710225637485543832<\/u><\/p>\n
Several noted Russian milbloggers hit back Friday at Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s insinuation on Thursday that drugs or alcohol may have played a role in the Aug. 23 plane crash<\/u> that Russian authorities say killed Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and several of his top aids.<\/p>\n
Putin on Thursday said that there were grenade fragments found<\/u> on some of the bodies in that crash, suggesting it might have been blown up from the inside. The corpses, he said, should have been tested for drugs and alcohol. Putin also said that FSB investigators found 11 pounds of cocaine during searches of Wagner offices in the wake of Prigozhin\u2019s putative putsch<\/u> in June.<\/p>\n
The Wagner-associated Grey Zone Telegram channel did not take kindly to Putin\u2019s presumption, dismissing the notion that anyone on board that plane would have been playing with a live grenade.<\/p>\n
Then they took a not-so-subtle shot at Putin without actually naming him.<\/p>\n
\u201cConclusion: the voiced version, especially when sprinkled with alcohol and cocaine, is epically idiotic and raises concerns about the sanity and competence of its creators. A pathetic, hastily put together, ugly, mediocre attempt to trample the dead Heroes of the Fatherland into shit.\u201d<\/p>\n
Grey Zone was not alone in lashing out.<\/p>\n
“So a short summary: the most combat-ready unit in the history of modern Russia was commanded by alcoholics and junkies who, being professional military men, did not know how to handle hand grenades?” said the Children of the Arbat pro-war Telegram channel, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/u>.<\/p>\n“Two heroes of great Russia died in this plane crash, just in case someone forgot, and not druggies,” said the Southern Front Telegram channel, according to Reuters<\/em>. “The version about a self-detonation is laughable and a farce.”<\/p>\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1710306049608106093<\/u><\/p>\n
Ukraine\u2019s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) on Thursday released a new video of a raid it says it recently conducted on Crimea with troops on personal watercraft, and vowed there are more to come. You can read more about that raid in our original reporting here<\/u>.<\/p>\n
The 66-second video opens with a short scene of two troops riding individually on personal watercraft past a tree-lined shore, then at the 3-second mark shifts to two-men teams aboard jet skis seen through the greenish glow of a night vision device. It later cuts to video of Ukrainian troops in support vessels firing machine guns, then to several personal watercraft riding in formation, then back to a support vessel and back to the troops on personal watercraft. It ends with one soldier flexing his biceps in triumph, another on a machine gun giving a thumb-up and finally another scene of the troops on personal watercraft.<\/p>\n
https:\/\/twitter.com\/DI_Ukraine\/status\/1709936375859233126<\/u><\/p>\n
A GUR special operation mission, scouts of the special purpose unit \u201cArtan landed on the western coast of the peninsula, as well as on the Tendriv and Kinburn spits,\u201d\u00a0 Artan commander Viktor Torkotyuk said Thursday on the GUR Telegram channel.<\/p>\n
The Tendriv and Kinbur spits are two points on a Kherson Oblast peninsula jutting out into the northern Black Sea about 70 and 80 miles respectively northwest of western Crimea.<\/p>\n\n