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Military analysts have mostly coalesced around the idea that Ukraine will, at best, hold existing front lines in ground fighting this year with a new influx of American weaponry \u2014 and risk falling back without it. It plans to replenish its ranks through mobilization while keeping Russia off balance with long-range drone strikes and sabotage operations behind enemy lines and inside Russia.<\/p>\n
In announcing the appointment of Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky to command the military, Mr. Zelensky said he wanted a \u201cnew management team\u201d for the armed forces. He has signaled a search for a new strategy that accounts for exhausted frontline soldiers in Ukraine\u2019s million-man army, which is fighting the largest war in Europe since World War II.<\/p>\n
He suggested a partial fix by cycling more soldiers from positions in the rear into combat, but he also signaled \u201ca new approach to mobilization and recruitment,\u201d without elaborating.<\/p>\n
Mobilization had been a factor in General Zaluzhny\u2019s dismissal. The plans for calling up more soldiers to fight in grim trench warfare was something nobody in Ukraine\u2019s military or civilian leadership wanted to be associated with. General Zaluzhny and Mr. Zelensky had been in open, public disagreement over mobilization since December.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Mr. Zelensky, at a news conference in December, said General Zaluzhny\u2019s staff had asked to draft 450,000 to 500,000 men, a comment that appeared intended to shift responsibility to the military for a decision to draft so many more soldiers, opposition politicians said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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General Zaluzhny responded that the decision to call up more soldiers was not up to the military. He said the armed forces had prepared estimates of their manpower needs to allow for rotations of those serving now, replace soldiers killed or wounded in combat and anticipate future losses.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe need shells, weapons and people,\u201d General Zaluzhny said. \u201cEverything else is done by the bodies that have the authority.\u201d<\/p>\n
In a statement after his appointment on Thursday, General Syrsky listed among his priorities \u201cthe life and health of servicemen,\u201d and said the military would seek a \u201cbalance\u201d for units between frontline deployments and training.<\/p>\n
On this extraordinarily delicate issue for Ukraine, \u201cthe unity is gone,\u201d Iryna Friz, a member of Parliament with the opposition European Solidarity party, said in an interview. \u201cThe question of mobilization was sabotaged for politics.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The bill on mobilization has passed a first reading in Ukraine\u2019s Parliament. It would lower the conscription age to 25 from 27 and stiffen penalties on draft dodgers.<\/p>\n
Ukraine currently drafts men between the ages of 27 and 60. Under martial law, all men 18 to 60 are prohibited from leaving the country, lest a decision be taken to draft them.<\/p>\n
Men with three or more children are exempted, but men with three children or fewer who volunteered, or whose families expanded as they served, have not been permitted to leave the military.<\/p>\n
The bill in Parliament also allows for the demobilization of troops after three years of service, holding out the prospect of a reprieve about a year from now for soldiers who have been fighting since the invasion in 2022. The law is expected to pass this month and take effect in March, Yaroslav Zhelezniak, a member of the opposition Holos party, wrote on Telegram.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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For draft-eligible men, trench warfare is a harrowing prospect. Soldiers die from artillery, exploding drones and snipers, as well as in close-quarters combat with Russian forces. Russia\u2019s ubiquitous land mines have blown legs or feet off thousands of Ukrainian men. And bunkers where soldiers slept last winter were overrun by rodents drawn to the warmth of the log or rough timber structures, worsening the unpleasant conditions on the front.<\/p>\n
Soldiers on the front typically spend three days or so sleeping in shifts in trenches and bunkers under fire, followed by three days in less-risky reserve positions, such as abandoned houses in nearby villages.<\/p>\n
Ms. Friz, the lawmaker, said Ukraine\u2019s government and Parliament must design the draft to balance the needs of the army and the economy and to maintain political stability, all issues beyond the scope of the military\u2019s duties.<\/p>\n
Lowering the draft age, for example, would bring more lithe, healthy soldiers to the fight, but poses long-term risks for sustaining Ukraine\u2019s population given the country\u2019s demographics.<\/p>\n
As in most former Soviet states, Ukraine has a small generation of 20-year-olds because birthrates plummeted during the deep economic depression of the 1990s. Because of this demographic trough, there are now three times as many men in their 40s as in their 20s in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Drafting more men in their 20s, given the likely battle casualties, would risk reducing the number of births in this small generation of Ukrainians, resulting in declines of draft- and working-age men decades from now and endangering the country\u2019s future security and economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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In one move to ease the concerns of men who are called up but want to have children, Parliament is considering a bill to pay medical bills for soldiers who wish to freeze their sperm to allow partners to become pregnant if they die in combat.<\/p>\n
Ukraine\u2019s labor pool is already vastly diminished by women fleeing war and men joining the army.<\/p>\n
A crowd angry about the draft blocked a road outside a western Ukrainian village last week in a rowdy confrontation with drivers and the police that illustrated the political risks of expanding mobilization.<\/p>\n
Villages in the west have been a primary source of soldiers for the Ukrainian army, and support for the war has been higher in the country\u2019s west than overall in Ukraine. But the loss of male loved ones has taken a toll on many families.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n