\n<\/p>\n
As the leaders of the West gathered in Munich over the past three days, President Vladimir V. Putin had a message for them: Nothing they\u2019ve done so far \u2014 sanctions, condemnation, attempted containment \u2014 would alter his intentions to disrupt the current world order.<\/p>\n
Russia made its first major gain in Ukraine in nearly a year, taking the ruined city of Avdiivka, at huge human cost to both sides, the bodies littered along the roads a warning, perhaps, of a new course in the two-year-old war. Aleksei Navalny\u2019s suspicious death in a remote Arctic prison made ever clearer that Mr. Putin will tolerate no dissent as elections approach.<\/p>\n
And the American discovery, disclosed in recent days, that Mr. Putin may be planning to place a nuclear weapon in space \u2014 a bomb designed to wipe out the connective tissue of global communications if Mr. Putin is pushed too far \u2014 was a potent reminder of his capacity to strike back at his adversaries with the asymmetric weapons that remain a key source of his power.<\/p>\n
In Munich, the mood was both anxious and unmoored, as leaders faced confrontations they had not anticipated. Warnings about Mr. Putin\u2019s possible next moves were mixed with Europe\u2019s growing worries that it could soon be abandoned by the United States, the one power that has been at the core of its defense strategy for 75 years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Barely an hour went by at the Munich Security Conference in which the conversation did not turn to the question of whether Congress would fail to find a way to fund new arms for Ukraine, and if so, how long the Ukrainians could hold out. And while Donald Trump\u2019s name was rarely mentioned, the prospect of whether he would make good on his threats to pull out of NATO and let Russia \u201cdo whatever the hell they want\u201d with allies he judged insufficient hung over much of the dialogue.<\/p>\n
Yet European leaders seemed to also sense how slowly they had reacted to the new realities. European plans to rebuild their own forces for a new era of confrontation were moving in the right direction, leader after leader insisted, but then they added it would take five years or more \u2014 time they may not have<\/a> if Russia overwhelms Ukraine and Mr. Trump undermines the alliance.<\/p>\n The dourness of the mood contrasted sharply with just a year ago, when many of the same participants \u2014 intelligence chiefs and diplomats, oligarchs and analysts \u2014 thought Russia might be on the verge of strategic defeat in Ukraine. There was talk of how many months it might take to drive the Russians back to the borders that existed before their invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. Now that optimism appeared premature at best, faintly delusional at worst.<\/p>\n Nikolai Denkov, the prime minister of Bulgaria, argued that Europeans should draw three lessons from the cascade of troubles. The war in Ukraine was not just about gray zones between Europe and Russia, he argued, but \u201cwhether the democratic world we value can be beaten, and this is now well understood in Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n Second, European nations have realized that they must combine their forces in military, not just economic endeavors, to build up their own deterrence, he said. And third, they needed to separate Ukraine\u2019s urgent needs for ammunition and air defense from longer-term strategic goals.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n