\n<\/p>\n
The contest to run city hall in Istanbul, Turkey\u2019s largest city and economic dynamo, is in many ways between one man who is on the ballot and another who is not.<\/p>\n
The first is the incumbent, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a rising star in the political opposition who won in a surprise victory in 2019 and is widely seen as a potential contender for the presidency.<\/p>\n
The second is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as Istanbul\u2019s mayor decades ago and has wanted to return his hometown to the control of his governing Justice and Development Party since Mr. Imamoglu\u2019s win.<\/p>\n
The outcome will be decided by municipal elections on Sunday that will in many ways shape Turkey\u2019s political future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
A win for Mr. Erdogan\u2019s party would allow it to reclaim the political and financial clout of running Turkey\u2019s largest city, further empowering a leader whom critics accuse of leading the country toward autocracy. A win for the incumbent mayor, however, could reinvigorate the anti-Erdogan opposition and propel Mr. Imamoglu toward the next presidential election, expected in 2028, when he could face off against Mr. Erdogan.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis election will determine the nature of the political race in Turkey for the years to come,\u201d said Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based research organization.<\/p>\n
The vote comes amid a prolonged cost-of-living crisis, during which the value of Turkey\u2019s currency has sunk and many people have come to feel poorer. It also follows presidential and parliamentary elections last May that granted Mr. Erdogan another term<\/a>, dashing the hopes of a coalition of opposition parties that had joined forces to try to unseat him.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In that election, Mr. Erdogan secured victory despite widespread voter anger at inflation that had soared to more than 80 percent<\/a> and criticism that his government had failed to swiftly respond to powerful earthquakes<\/a> that killed more than 53,000 people in southern Turkey in February 2023.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The opposition\u2019s loss battered its morale and its coalition fell apart. <\/p>\n Many opposition voters now see Mr. Imamoglu as uniquely capable of winning against Mr. Erdogan\u2019s party, so much so that they predict he could be Turkey\u2019s next president.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Imamoglu wins Istanbul again, people will think that the chance to beat Erdogan is not all gone,\u201d said Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science at Isik University in Istanbul.<\/p>\n On Sunday, voters will elect mayors and other municipal officials across Turkey, but much of the focus is on Istanbul, given its size and political and economic importance.<\/p>\n Home to some 16 million people and straddling the Bosporus between Europe and Asia, Istanbul generates much of Turkey\u2019s economic output. The metropolitan municipality has about 90,000 employees, many working for municipal companies whose directors the mayor nominates. All of that gives whoever sits in city hall significant opportunities to reward supporters with municipal jobs and contracts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The race is also personal. Mr. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, where his father worked as a ferryboat captain. His own political career leaped forward when he won an upset victory to become the city\u2019s mayor from 1994 to 1998. Many residents hailed him for practical governance that focused on quality-of-life issues in the ancient city: cleaning up polluted streets and waterways and expanding running water and sewer networks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While he later ascended to serve as prime minister and president, jobs technically based in Ankara, the capital, he often speaks of his love for Istanbul, whose rich history, cosmopolitan elite and booming tourist sector have long made it the jewel of Turkey.<\/p>\n Mr. Erdogan\u2019s party maintained control of the city for most of the 25 years after he was elected there.<\/p>\n That is why it was such a blow to Mr. Erdogan\u2019s party when Mr. Imamoglu, 52, defeated its candidate<\/a> in 2019. Mr. Erdogan\u2019s party alleged electoral irregularities, and Turkey\u2019s election board ordered a rerun.<\/p>\n