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Britain\u2019s governing Conservative Party on Friday lost two of its safest parliamentary seats in a significant and ominous setback for the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who must call a general election that will decide his fate within the next 15 months.<\/p>\n
Voting in the Conservative strongholds of Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth took place on Thursday to replace two of the party\u2019s lawmakers \u2014 one of whom quit after an allegation of sexual assault \u2014 and came as Britain\u2019s health care system faces acute strain and its economy stagnates amid high inflation.<\/p>\n
While that was always likely to put the Conservatives under pressure, the double defeat in the party\u2019s heartlands was a stunning blow to Mr. Sunak and a striking success for the opposition Labour Party and its leader, Keir Starmer.<\/p>\n
In Tamworth, northeast of Birmingham, Labour overturned a majority of almost 20,000 in the last general election to win narrowly, while in Mid Bedfordshire, around 50 miles north of London, the main opposition party overcame an even bigger deficit to seize the seat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Mr. Starmer described the vote as \u201ca phenomenal result that shows Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.\u201d<\/p>\n
In a statement, he added: \u201cTo those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.\u201d<\/p>\n
Analysts caution against over-interpreting these types of local contests \u2014 known as by-elections \u2014 where there is no prospect of the result changing the government, and voters often cast their ballots to register a protest against the governing party. Less than 36 percent of registered voters turned out to vote in Tamworth; in Mid Bedfordshire the number was higher, at 44 per cent.<\/p>\n
Because the Conservatives won so convincingly in the last general election, in 2019, Labour has an electoral mountain to climb if it is to win a clear majority the next time Britons are asked to decide who should govern them.<\/p>\n
Yet, the scale of the switch of votes revealed on Friday does not bode well for Mr. Sunak, suggesting that even some of his Conservative Party\u2019s more secure strongholds are no longer impregnable. It will also increase Mr. Starmer\u2019s confidence that, having shifted his party to the political center ground, he can win an outright majority in the next general election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cThis isn\u2019t destiny, but it is a pointer that unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are, in truth, staring defeat in the face in 12 months\u2019 time,\u201d John Curtice, a professor at the University of Strathclyde and a leading polling expert, told the BBC early Friday.<\/p>\n
The first result to be declared was from Tamworth, where voters were choosing a successor to Chris Pincher, the former Conservative lawmaker who had represented the district. He resigned from Parliament after a drunken incident in which, it was alleged, he had groped two men.<\/p>\n
In the last general election in 2019, Mr. Pincher won with a majority of 19,634, but on Friday that was overturned when the Labour candidate, Sarah Edwards, won 11,719 votes, and the Conservative candidate, Andrew Cooper, 10,403.<\/p>\n
\u201cTonight the people of Tamworth have voted for Labour\u2019s positive vision and a fresh start,\u201d Ms. Edwards told her cheering supporters after the result. \u201cThey have sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives that they have had enough of this failed government.\u201d<\/p>\n
Support for Brexit was strong in Tamworth, and Labour\u2019s victory will encourage it to think it is winning back voters who had deserted it for the Conservatives because they favored Britain\u2019s exit from the European Union.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
In Mid Bedfordshire the contest was to replace Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister and prominent supporter of Boris Johnson, who quit as prime minister last year. Ms. Dorries announced her intention to leave Parliament in June when Mr. Johnson stood down as a lawmaker, but she caused confusion by delaying her formal resignation and faced accusations of absenteeism and failing to represent local voters.<\/p>\n
In the 2019 general election, Ms. Dorries won a majority of 24,664 over Labour, and the Conservatives had represented the district since 1931.<\/p>\n
That ended on Friday when Labour\u2019s candidate, Alistair Strathern, won 13,872 votes, the Conservatives came second with 12,680, and the smaller, centrist Liberal Democrats won 9,420.<\/p>\n
Both results were a stinging blow to Mr. Sunak, who, since he became prime minister last year following the brief and disastrous leadership of Liz Truss, has failed to close a persistent double-digit deficit in the opinion polls against the opposition Labour Party.<\/p>\n
Mr. Sunak was praised for restoring some measure of stability after Ms. Truss\u2019s economic plans roiled the financial markets and she became the country\u2019s shortest lived prime minister in history. But he has struggled to win over<\/a> the British public after 13 years of Conservative government.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In recent weeks, Mr. Sunak has tried to seize the political initiative<\/a> with a series of eye-catching decisions: scaling back climate change targets<\/a>, canceling the second phase of a high-speed rail project, announcing new measures to phase out the sale of cigarettes to young people and proposing a shake-up to the high school examination system.<\/p>\n Little electoral reward appears to have flowed from these announcements, however, three of which were made at the Conservative Party\u2019s annual conference<\/a> in Manchester earlier this month.<\/p>\n That meeting was distracted by a high-profile appearance by Ms. Truss, and by scarcely concealed jockeying from those who see themselves as contenders<\/a> for the party leadership, should the Conservatives lose the general election.<\/p>\n By contrast, Labour\u2019s conference in Liverpool, the week after, presented a more unified and confident image of a party that sees itself as close to power.<\/p>\n Friday\u2019s results are the latest in a succession of election setbacks for Mr. Sunak. In July Labour won a by-election in Selby and Ainsty<\/a>, in the north of England, overturning a Conservative majority of more than 20,000.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n