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Mexicans will vote on Sunday in an election that is groundbreaking on several fronts: it\u2019s set to be the largest race in the country\u2019s history, it\u2019s already among the most violent in recent memory, and it will likely put a woman in the presidency for the first time ever.<\/p>\n
The two main contenders, who have largely split the electorate between them according to polls, are women. The front-runner is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist representing the ruling party and its party allies. Her closest competitor is X\u00f3chitl G\u00e1lvez, a businesswoman on a ticket that includes a collection of opposition parties.<\/p>\n
Ms. Sheinbaum has had a double-digit lead in the polls<\/a> for months, but the opposition has argued those numbers underestimate the true support for their candidate. In an interview, Ms. G\u00e1lvez said \u201cthere is an anti-system vote,\u201d and if Mexicans turned out in force on Sunday, \u201cwe will win.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cShe\u2019s in the mind-set where she\u2019s ahead by 30 points,\u201d said Ms. G\u00e1lvez, of her rival. \u201cBut she\u2019s going to have the surprise of her life.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The contest showcases the immense strides in Mexico\u2019s politics made in recent years by women, who weren\u2019t even allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both the top candidates come with considerable experience; Ms. G\u00e1lvez was a senator and Ms. Sheinbaum governed the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.<\/p>\n \u201cFor the first time in 200 years of the republic, we women will arrive at the highest distinction our people can give us: the presidency of Mexico,\u201d Ms. Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.<\/p>\n Yet much of race has focused on a figure who isn\u2019t on the ballot, but looms large: the powerful current president, Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador.<\/p>\n Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador has been a fixture of Mexican politics for decades, running for president in all three of the previous elections before finally winning in a landslide in 2018.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While broadly popular, Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador has been a polarizing figure, eliciting adulation from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His administration doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to help bring millions out of poverty, while empowering the military and pursuing measures that many warned would weaken democratic institutions.<\/p>\n His dominance upended establishment politics, prompting three parties, from the right, center and left, to form an uneasy union that is now backing Ms. G\u00e1lvez.<\/p>\n Ms. Sheinbaum has appealed to voters mainly by promising to continue his legacy. Ms. G\u00e1lvez has cast herself as an alternative for those unhappy with Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s leadership, vowing to reverse many of his policies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cThe way this election has played out is a testament to the impact L\u00f3pez Obrador has had on Mexican politics,\u201d said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. \u201cHe is the center around which political identities and political positions are defined.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Whoever succeeds Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador will face daunting challenges.<\/p>\n Cartel violence continues to torment the country, displacing people en masse and fueling one of the deadliest campaign cycles in recent Mexican history. Mr. L\u00f3pez Obrador directed government attention to addressing the drivers of violence instead of waging war on the criminal groups, a strategy he called \u201chugs not bullets.\u201d<\/p>\n Ms. G\u00e1lvez has slammed the approach.<\/p>\n \u201cEnough of hugs for the criminals, and bullets for citizens,\u201d she quipped on the campaign trail. She has said she would pull the armed forces out of civilian activities and direct them to focus on combating organized crime, while strengthening the police.<\/p>\n Ms. Sheinbaum has said she would continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but will also work to lower rates of impunity and build up the national guard.<\/p>\n On the economy, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the largest trading partner of the United States, benefiting from recent shift in manufacturing away from China. The currency is so strong it\u2019s been labeled the \u201csuper peso.\u201d<\/p>\n But there are also problems simmering. The federal deficit ballooned to around 6 percent this year<\/a>, and Pemex, the national oil company, is operating under a mountain of debt, straining public finances.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cThe fiscal risk we\u2019re facing at the moment is something we haven\u2019t seen for decades,\u201d said Mariana Campos, director of M\u00e9xico Eval\u00faa, a public policy research group.<\/p>\n Another challenge involves the broad new responsibilities granted to the armed forces, which have been tasked with running ports and airports, running an airline, and building a railroad through the Mayan jungle. Ms. Sheinbaum has said \u201cthere is no militarization\u201d<\/a> of the country, while suggesting she\u2019s open to re-evaluating the military\u2019s involvement<\/a> in public enterprises.<\/p>\n In addition to such pressing domestic challenges, the next president\u2019s destiny will be intertwined with the outcome of the presidential election in the United States. A re-election victory for President Biden would provide continuity, but a return of Donald J. Trump to the White House would likely be far less predictable.<\/p>\n