\n<\/p>\n
The dragons are back. And not a moment too soon.<\/p>\n
On Sunday, \u201cHouse of the Dragon,\u201d the \u201cGame of Thrones\u201d prequel series, will return to HBO for its second season. The show became a bona fide hit in its first season, in 2022, and helped kick off a torrid winning streak for the network that included the beloved sophomore season of \u201cThe White Lotus\u201d; the premiere of a new hit, \u201cThe Last of Us\u201d; and the decorated final season of \u201cSuccession.\u201d<\/p>\n
But over the past year, HBO has encountered a fallow stretch \u2014 unusual for America\u2019s pre-eminent premium television network.<\/p>\n
There have been disappointments (the music drama \u201cThe Idol\u201d and the Kate Winslet-starring limited series \u201cThe Regime,\u201d for instance), and delayed premieres because of the double Hollywood strikes last year. According to one widely used industry metric, Max, the 13-month-old streaming service that houses HBO\u2019s shows, has plateaued during that time. One high-ranking executive at Warner Bros. Discovery, HBO\u2019s parent company, chalked up Max\u2019s slow start to \u201cprobably the lightest content slate we\u2019ve ever had.\u201d<\/p>\n
HBO\u2019s one-year slowdown could be underscored when Emmy nominations arrive next month, usually a cause for celebration for the network. But in contrast to previous years, shows from HBO and Max will not be favorites in some of the major categories, including drama, a category that HBO dominated at the most recent Emmys.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
According to some award forecasters, HBO could finish third among networks in total nominations, which would be its lowest ranking since 1996.<\/p>\n
HBO executives acknowledged that they were anticipating reduced award recognition this year. But they said they were looking to the months ahead, starting with this weekend.<\/p>\n
\u201cKnowing the returning shows we have, and the new shows coming up, I can tell you I\u2019m feeling very good going into the next 18 months to two years,\u201d Casey Bloys, the chairman of HBO and Max content, said in an interview.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
In addition to \u201cHouse of the Dragon,\u201d Mr. Bloys pointed to several series debuting this year, including \u201cThe Penguin,\u201d starring Colin Farrell; a prequel series from the \u201cDune\u201d universe; and a new comedy from Armando Iannucci, the creator of \u201cVeep.\u201d Two hits will return next year: \u201cThe White Lotus\u201d and \u201cThe Last of Us.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cWhen I look to the future, it\u2019s not an unknown at all,\u201d Mr. Bloys said.<\/p>\n
Industry insiders have long looked for signals of an HBO slump. And given its outsize success over the past three decades, it generally draws more scrutiny \u2014 from viewers and critics \u2014 than other networks.<\/p>\n
Still, the slowdown comes at a fragile time in the entertainment industry. The lucrative cable bundle is eroding, being replaced by the dicey economics of streaming. The Peak TV era has ended<\/a>, and Hollywood is in the midst of an industrywide contraction.<\/p>\n HBO\u2019s parent company faces all of those challenges, and more: The company has a debt load of roughly $40 billion, and its share price has declined more than 30 percent this year.<\/p>\n When Warner Bros. Discovery was formed in 2022, the promise of Max \u2014 a combination of Warner Bros. movies and shows, including those from HBO, and Discovery\u2019s enormous supply of unscripted content \u2014 was a big justification for the merger. The idea was that the combination could compete more directly with streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime.<\/p>\n But engagement on Max \u2014 renamed from HBO Max in 2023 \u2014 has not been growing. The service accounts for 1.2 percent of television use in the United States, according to Nielsen, just as it did a year ago. Netflix\u2019s share is significantly higher (7.6 percent), and even middle- or lower-tier services like Tubi (1.7 percent), Roku Channel (1.4 percent) and Peacock (1.3 percent) now slightly eclipse Max. Warner Bros. Discovery, however, said its streaming division was profitable, whereas Peacock, for example, lost nearly $3 billion last year. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n At a conference this year, JB Perrette, the president of global streaming at Warner Bros. Discovery, acknowledged that the strikes had contributed to a weaker lineup of shows and movies. \u201cWe had a much lighter slate in the second half of the year than we ever expected,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Mr. Bloys said the labor strife slowed the releases of many of the network\u2019s hits \u2014 including delays for \u201cThe White Lotus\u201d and \u201cThe Last of Us\u201d \u2014 and \u201cThe Penguin,\u201d a show that Mr. Bloys said he felt \u201cvery strongly\u201d about. Another \u201cGame of Thrones\u201d spinoff is also scheduled to premiere next year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n There have been some recent successes. The fourth season of \u201cTrue Detective\u201d premiered this year, averaging roughly 13 million viewers an episode, more than the final season of \u201cSuccession,\u201d according to the network. The Max original series \u201cHacks\u201d also just finished its critically acclaimed third season.<\/p>\n Still, \u201cHacks\u201d is likely to have an uphill climb at the Emmys against the most recent best comedy winner, the FX and Hulu series \u201cThe Bear.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Netflix is widely expected to lead all networks in Emmy nominations this year, besting HBO for the first time in four years. It\u2019s also possible that FX, which has another strong awards contender in \u201cShogun,\u201d could be in a dead heat with HBO and Max for the second-most nominations. Emmy voting began on Thursday, and nominations will be announced on July 17. <\/p>\n But to HBO\u2019s executives, questions about whether it can maintain its high standards are all too familiar. The network, Mr. Bloys said, has endured \u201cvarious periods of hand-wringing\u201d in which the industry fixated on any perceived signs of weakness.<\/p>\n Shortly after \u201cThe Sopranos\u201d ended in 2007, for instance, rival executives labeled the network \u201cHB-Over.\u201d<\/a> Similarly, when it encountered a drama drought in 2015, or when \u201cGame of Thrones\u201d went off the air in 2019, the network was peppered with questions about its future.<\/p>\n HBO, to say the least, survived.<\/p>\n Mr. Bloys maintained that it was \u201cdifferent this time\u201d because during those earlier periods, HBO did not have any sure bets waiting in the wings. This time, it does, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThings will happen \u2014 Emmys will come and go,\u201d he said. \u201cI think what serves us is to just continue to concentrate on our own shows and doing the best possible shows we can.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n