\n<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t expect Gulf governments to stop Israel\u2019s ruthless campaign to root out Iran\u2019s proxies.<\/p>\n
As Israel unilaterally upends the balance of power in the Middle East, Gulf countries will watch and wait from the sidelines, ready to re-engage if a new order actually emerges.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s because Israel\u2019s campaign to eliminate enemies of the state \u2014 Hamas and Hezbollah \u2014 aligns with the interest of Gulf governments. They, too, are committed to eliminating Iran\u2019s proxies in the region. Despite horrific loss of life in Gaza and a rising death toll in Lebanon, the Abraham Accords remain intact, and Saudi Arabia continues to work towards normalization of ties with Israel, collecting security guarantees from the US along the way.<\/p>\n
Gulf governments spent years funneling money to various Lebanese political parties, governments, and aid groups with nothing to show for it. The country\u2019s inability to effectively govern itself has been exploited internally and externally for years, creating a vortex of wasted time, talent, and money that Gulf governments don\u2019t see much point in perpetuating: One Gulf official recently likened the previous policy of patronage in places like Lebanon to lighting money on fire, just to enjoy the flames.<\/p>\n
Back in 2019, Saad Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister with deep Saudi ties, told me his compatriots were their own worst enemy. Then, he was leader of a state on the verge of economic collapse, custodian of a country whose banking system was rigged. Lenders financed post-war reconstruction, but politicians never implemented economic reforms needed to keep it stable. After a prolonged period of high interest rates, banks collapsed, wiping out savings.<\/p>\n
With the currency losing over 90% of its value, Lebanon was then hit repeatedly by a series of crises \u2014 economic, humanitarian, and security, amongst them the explosion of Beirut\u2019s port. In the last few years, the only people that have been doing well were those with fresh dollars, and that is what Iran\u2019s proxy in Lebanon could provide. Despite a crippled state, Hezbollah and its followers have been enjoying a prolonged period of strength, calm, and growth. For years I\u2019ve listened as members of every sect \u2014 Muslims, Christians, and Druze \u2014 condemned Nasrallah, openly calling on Israel to take him out.<\/p>\n
But now that the deed is done, the price of killing the Hezbollah commander may be too much for most to bear. In an interview last week at his Beirut compound, longtime Druze leader Walid Joumblatt told me those who continued to shout for a swift Israeli intervention should be careful what they wish for.<\/p>\n
When I spoke to him, the 75-year-old, whose political survival skills are legendary, told me he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to change the whole Middle Eastern order, potentially resulting in total chaos.<\/p>\n
History has shown there is no upside to Gulf involvement. The region\u2019s rulers may be happy to return and rebuild what Israel destroys in Lebanon and Gaza, as long as this \u201cnew order\u201d emerges. Until that happens, the Gulf is resting on a lesson about throwing good money after bad, and will be content to abhor the method without engaging in the madness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n