\n<\/p>\n
From the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has performed a delicate balancing act<\/a>, portraying itself as an ally to the warring sides while reaping economic and political benefits from its relationship with both.<\/p>\n Turkey has condemned Russia\u2019s invasion<\/a> and extended diplomatic and material assistance to Ukraine\u2019s war efforts. At the same time, the country\u2019s leader, Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, has pointedly opted not to join<\/a> the Western-led sanctions against Russia or cut ties with Moscow.<\/p>\n But Turkey\u2019s neutrality in the Ukraine conflict<\/a> is seemingly meeting with growing impatience in Washington and Moscow, and may be difficult to sustain amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n In September 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Turkish companies<\/a> and a businessman accused of helping Russia to circumvent U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, Erdo\u011fan has failed to revive a deal<\/a> with Russian President Vladimir Putin that allowed the export of Ukrainian grain shipments via Turkey\u2019s Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits and eased global food prices.<\/p>\n The developments suggest that both Washington and Moscow are seeking to pressure Turkey into taking a decisive stand. Already there are signs of Erdo\u011fan bending. On Oct. 25, 2023, Erdo\u011fan signed Sweden\u2019s NATO accession protocol<\/a> and sent it to the Parliament for ratification, having earlier refused to endorse the move \u2013 much to the annoyance of Turkey\u2019s NATO allies<\/a>.<\/p>\n The move may be interpreted as a sign that Turkey\u2019s balancing strategy is reaching its limits. But it may also be another tactical move in Erdo\u011fan\u2019s geopolitical chess game, which has expanded as he seeks to position Turkey as a diplomatic force<\/a> amid escalating violence in the Middle East.<\/p>\n As an expert on Turkish politics and international affairs<\/a>, I have watched as Erdo\u011fan walks a fine line between the country\u2019s commitments as a longtime NATO member and its reliance on Russia for trade<\/a>, economic resources and energy imports. But this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult the longer the war goes on.<\/p>\n Erdogan\u2019s approach aligns with Turkey\u2019s historical foreign policy trajectory. Turkey has maintained a balance between Western European powers and Russia since the latter emerged<\/a> as an ambitious regional player along Turkey\u2019s northern border in the early 18th century.<\/p>\n The balancing act allowed the Ottoman Empire<\/a>, Turkey\u2019s predecessor, to survive the 19th century largely intact despite mounting pressures from the Russian Empire and European powers. Failure to utilize a balancing strategy in the First World War facilitated the empire\u2019s demise. Joining forces with<\/a> the losing Central Powers, Turkey had to share a catastrophic fate. In contrast, in World War II, a strategy of neutrality<\/a> helped Turkey to weather the war unscathed.<\/p>\n Against a mounting Soviet threat during the Cold War, Turkey took refuge under Western security guarantees, joining NATO in 1952<\/a>.<\/p>\n Relieved of the Soviet threat in the 1990s, Ankara sought greater foreign policy autonomy. However, it lacked the necessary economic and military resources and domestic political will to fully realize this ambition<\/a>, leading to alignment with U.S. policies in the Middle East and Balkans until the early 2010s.<\/p>\n But U.S. support to Kurds in northern Syria, aligned to the militant separatist Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party, and the 2016 coup attempt<\/a> against Erdo\u011fan marked the beginning of a more confrontational relationship between Washington and Ankara.<\/p>\n Blaming the U.S. and its Persian Gulf allies for complicity in the coup, Erdogan began to court Putin, who openly stood behind him<\/a> during and after the attempted coup. Ankara\u2019s acquisition of Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air missiles led to its removal from the U.S.\u2018s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program<\/a> and a set of U.S. sanctions<\/a> on Turkey\u2019s defense industry. Coupled with its repeated military interventions in Syria, Turkey\u2019s closeness with Russia has, critics say, reduced it to a status of \u201cunreliable partner<\/a>\u201d in the North Atlantic alliance.<\/p>\n But it didn\u2019t take long for Ankara\u2019s flirtation with Moscow to reach a deadlock. The death of 34 Turkish soldiers<\/a> in a Russian bombardment in northern Syria in February 2020 prompted a renewed effort to seek reconciliation with the U.S. However, the Biden administration hesitated to reset relations<\/a> due to concerns over Erdo\u011fan\u2019s increasingly authoritarian rule.<\/p>\n War in Ukraine offered a new boost to Erdo\u011fan\u2019s balancing act. Turkey\u2019s control of two major straits<\/a> and established ties with Ukraine and other states along the Black Sea provided significant leverage for a multifaceted and neutral approach. Erdo\u011fan seemingly hoped that maintaining trade relations with Russia and arms sales to Ukraine<\/a> would bolster the struggling Turkish economy and rehabilitate his image in the West.<\/p>\n But Erdo\u011fan\u2019s early blocking of Sweden\u2019s and Finland\u2019s entry into NATO stirred resentment in Washington and Brussels<\/a>.<\/p>\n As the Ukraine conflict continued and Erdo\u011fan\u2019s domestic popularity dipped in the lead-up<\/a> to the May 2023 elections, the sustainability of Turkey\u2019s balancing act seemed uncertain again.<\/p>\n In need of financial and political support, Erdo\u011fan has turned to the West and Persian Gulf countries. He approved Finland\u2019s NATO accession and forged economic deals with West-friendly Saudi Arabia<\/a> and the United Arab Emirates<\/a> \u2013 Turkey\u2019s two bitter rivals in the Middle East.<\/p>\n In summer 2023, Erdo\u011fan announced a new cabinet<\/a> that projected a pro-Western outlook<\/a>. He mended ties with Egypt<\/a>, another traditional regional rival, aligning with the new balance of power that the U.S. and its regional allies were shaping in the Middle East. And then, at the July 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Erdo\u011fan announced the withdrawal of his veto<\/a> against Sweden\u2019s accession to NATO.<\/p>\n Erdo\u011fan\u2019s pro-Western moves have prompted a cautiously optimistic approach by Western leaders, using both incentives and punitive measures: extending a US$35 billion World Bank credit<\/a> to aid Turkey\u2019s economy, while penalizing Turkish entities for violating U.S. sanctions<\/a>. The latter has been taken as a not-so-veiled message to Ankara to take a definitive stance in its foreign affairs.<\/p>\n Erdo\u011fan has received a similar message from Putin. Disappointed in part by Turkey\u2019s reconciliation with the West, Putin chose not to renew<\/a> the Ukrainian grain deal despite Erdo\u011fan\u2019s earlier successful brokerage. It was a considerable blow for Erdo\u011fan, who sought to position himself as a crucial power broker in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.<\/p>\n Although Erdo\u011fan faces pushback from the U.S. and Russia, this does not necessarily signal the demise of his middleman strategy. Turkey\u2019s location on the Europe-Asia boundary and historical ties to neighboring regions provide Erdo\u011fan opportunities to sustain and even expand a strategy of neutrality among regional and global actors.<\/p>\n Developments in the South Caucasus and the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip are two recent examples. They add a new layer of complexity for Erdogan\u2019s balancing act, but also more room for him to maneuver. Turkey has been a key backer<\/a> of Azerbaijan\u2019s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh \u2013 something that has exposed Russia\u2019s waning influence in the region and created a major geopolitical setback for Iran. Meanwhile, Erdo\u011fan\u2019s ties with both Hamas<\/a> and the Israeli government<\/a> provide an opportunity for him to play a mediator role<\/a> there.<\/p>\n This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a>, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.<\/em><\/p>\n It was written by: Ozgur Ozkan<\/a>, Tufts University<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n Read more:<\/strong><\/p>\n Ozgur Ozkan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\nThe middleman strategy<\/h2>\n
Splintered support<\/h2>\n
The balancing act and Ukraine<\/h2>\n