The War Zone<\/em> has reviewed from Planet Labs show the Candid at its current position by December 9. An Il-76 was seen parked between the runways the day before and was not there on December 7.<\/p>\nA Syrian Airlines Yak-40, a passenger plane that is between a large business jet and a small airliner size-wise, also appeared at the base on December 8. The Yak-40 was initially parked on a different apron, but was moved next to the Il-76 by December 13.<\/p>\n
The video in the social media post below, which was taken via a drone and that Turkey-based <\/strong><\/em>Syria TV<\/strong> put out last week, clearly shows a Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim at multiple points in its runtime.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\nA satellite image of Khmeimim taken on December 13 showing the Syrian Airlines Il-76 and Yak-40, at left, and a Russian An-124 cargo plane, at right. Satellite image \u00a92024 Maxar Technologies<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\nThe Syrian Airlines Il-76 is seen at left in this December 10 satellite image of Khmeimim. A Russian Il-76 is also seen on the apron to the right. Satellite image \u00a92024 Maxar Technologies<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nIn addition, a Russian Il-76 was tracked leaving Khmeimim for Moscow on December 8, which further aligns with the timeline in the new statement attributed to Assad.<\/p>\n
Altogether, there are signs that the Syrian Airlines Il-76 at Khmeimim is YK-ATA and that Assad used that aircraft or the Yak-40 as part of his ultimate flight from the country on December 8. The Il-76 could have been used to help spirit other assets, including regime riches, to Khmeimim and then out of the country. It would have been a top priority for Assad to get physical assets, including gold and currency reserves, to a safe place. The Assad family has already been reportedly squirreling away<\/a> vast wealth overseas for years<\/a>. There are reports that other former regime officials have been fleeing<\/a> to the Russian base in order to get out of the country with the Kremlin\u2019s help, as well.<\/p>\nHowever, it remains unknown for sure whether or not it is YK-ATA at the Russian base. Syrian Airlines has four Il-76s in its inventory and no imagery has emerged so far clearly showing the registration on the example at Khmeimim. There is still a possibility that YK-ATA went elsewhere or came down.<\/p>\n
Questions very much remain about what might happen to the Khmeimim Air Base, including the Syrian Airlines aircraft there, as well as Russia\u2019s naval base at Tartus. The air and naval facilities are highly strategic facilities for the Kremlin that support operations beyond Syria. A substantial withdrawal of Russian forces<\/a> from the country is underway, but it remains unclear whether or not they are leaving for good<\/a>. Russian officials insist that they are still trying to hold on<\/a> to their two prized bases, but there are unconfirmed reports<\/a> that they could be ordered to vacate the country within a month. You can read more about what is known now about these deliberations in reporting here<\/a>.<\/p>\nThe end of Assad\u2019s regime has already provided the opportunity for unprecedented views of Khmeimim. Maybe now clearer imagery will emerge showing the Syrian Airlines Il-76\u2019s registration code to settle the question of whether this is the \u2018missing\u2019 jet for good.<\/p>\n
Contact the author: joe@twz.com<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n