\n<\/p>\n
Crossings into the United States from Mexico dropped sharply last year. But countries south of the U.S. border are waiting nervously to see if President-elect Donald J. Trump orders mass deportations.<\/p>\n
The possibility that millions of undocumented immigrants could be expelled \u2014 what would be the largest deportation program in American history \u2014 has sent shock waves through Latin America and sowed confusion among migrants and asylum seekers.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe see dark times coming for the migrant community,\u201d said Irineo Mujica, the Mexico director of People Without Borders, a transnational advocacy group. \u201cAnyone who falls prey to the Trump administration is now going to be devoured, chewed up and spat out.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Mr. Trump has said that Mexico is allowing an \u201cinvasion\u201d of migrants into the United States. But the current situation on the ground tells a different story.<\/p>\n
Unlawful crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border have been declining since June<\/a>, when President Biden issued an executive order<\/a> to essentially block undocumented migrants from receiving asylum at the border.<\/p>\n That month, U.S. Border Patrol officials recorded 130,415 apprehensions of migrants \u2014 a sharp drop from the more than 170,710 recorded the previous month. The numbers in November were even lower<\/a>: U.S. officials recorded 94,190 people.<\/p>\n That is a stark shift from a year ago. Illegal crossings for November 2023 rose above 242,300, a record at the time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Critics who argue that asylum is legal and a basic human right say Mr. Biden\u2019s move was a short-term fix for a complex issue.<\/p>\n As part of Mr. Biden\u2019s order, restrictions are to be lifted when the number of people trying to cross illegally each day drops below 1,500 for one week. That has not happened. But it has sharply brought down border crossings<\/a> and allowed officials to deport those who cannot prove they would be endangered if they returned to their countries.<\/p>\n Mexico has also clamped down on people heading to the U.S. border.<\/p>\n It has deployed<\/a> National Guard troops to immigration checkpoints from north to south. More recently, the authorities have bused migrants farther south<\/a> into Mexico \u2014 in what officials and scholars call a migratory merry-go-round. They have prevented them from hopping onto trains<\/a> heading north and have broken up caravans, which no longer reach the U.S. border. <\/p>\n In 2023, Mexico mostly paused the issuance of humanitarian cards<\/a> that allowed asylum seekers to study, work and get access to basic services in Mexico. Under the law, they are supposed to stay in the state where they apply for asylum. But many use the cards to move north without being detained, officials say.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n As a result of the stoppage, between Oct. 1 and Dec. 26, 2024, Mexican security forces said<\/a>, they detained over 475,000 migrants, nearly 68 percent more than the number apprehended during the same period in 2023, government data<\/a> show.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n As Mexico\u2019s strategy has shifted, many migrants have become stranded.<\/p>\n \u201cBy not giving them cards, they could no longer access public services or enter the legal market,\u201d said Andr\u00e9s Ram\u00edrez Silva, who until September was the head of the country\u2019s Commission for Refugee Assistance. <\/p>\n The situation is unsustainable, advocacy groups warn<\/a>. More migrants have become easy prey for organized crime groups, which extort them.<\/p>\n \u201cMany people keep arriving\u201d in Mexico, said Mauro P\u00e9rez Bravo, the former president of the citizen council of the National Migration Institute. But they live in \u201cvulnerable conditions,\u201d he added, working low-paid jobs or sleeping in shelters, junkyards, construction sites or on the street.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Mexican border states have been working in coordination with the federal government to set up shelters to provide food and health services.<\/p>\n They have been making transportation arrangements for Mexicans who wish to return to their home states. In Tijuana, a border town south of San Diego, city officials have been coordinating with churches, bus companies and humanitarian groups to prepare for arrivals, said Jos\u00e9 Luis P\u00e9rez Canchola, director of the city\u2019s migration services office.<\/p>\n He worries that mass deportations from the United States could further strain Tijuana\u2019s resources for migrants, noting that many are likely to be unaccompanied minors or in need of medical attention.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Making sure people do not stay long in Mexican border cities like Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez is a major priority, said Mar\u00eda Eugenia Campos, governor of Chihuahua state, which shares an extensive border with Texas and New Mexico.<\/p>\n \u201cThe state of Chihuahua cannot become a sanctuary state\u201d for migrants and deportees, she said.<\/p>\n Until this month, Mexico\u2019s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, had said the country would not accept foreign deportees. On Friday, she signaled otherwise.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are going to ask the United States that, as far as possible, the migrants who are not from Mexico can be sent to their countries of origin \u2014 and if not, we can collaborate through different mechanisms,\u201d she told reporters, adding that her government had \u201ca plan,\u201d without offering details.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Not really.<\/p>\n About 392,000 Mexicans were displaced as a result of conflict and violence in 2023, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, which compiles data from federal governments. That was the highest figure since record-keeping began<\/a> in 2009.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The situation is somewhat similar in Central America. In some countries, criminal gangs and drug cartels have led many to flee.<\/p>\n Honduras had more than 240,000 people internally displaced because of insecurity by the end of 2022, according to a recent report<\/a> by the International Organization for Migration.<\/p>\n In Guatemala, factors that drive people out \u2014 inequality, poverty, climate change, economic instability and violence \u2014 have not improved much despite the election of a new president, Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo, an anticorruption crusader<\/a>, said Aracely Mart\u00ednez, a migration researcher at the Universidad del Valle in Guatemala City.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have a new government whose campaign proposed fundamental changes, but we still do not see direct results,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Still, the number of Guatemalans recorded at the U.S.-Mexico border decreased to nearly 8,000 in November from more than 20,000 in January 2024, when Mr. Ar\u00e9valo took office, U.S. Border Patrol data indicate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Venezuela and Cuba, which have faced harsh U.S. sanctions, are likely to refuse large numbers of deportation flights.<\/p>\n Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador signed asylum agreements with the first Trump administration to require people, mostly asylum seekers from Latin America, to first take refuge in those three countries before applying in the United States, though the policy was not put in place in Honduras and El Salvador.<\/p>\n The most concrete pushback<\/a> against Mr. Trump\u2019s vow of mass deportations has come from President Xiomara Castro of Honduras, who said this month that bases housing U.S. military forces \u201cwould lose all reason to exist\u201d in her country if he carried out his promise.<\/p>\n In Guatemala, the government denied<\/a> as \u201cfake\u201d reports that officials were open to receiving deported foreigners<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Panama in December reported 4,849 people migrating through the perilous Dari\u00e9n Gap \u2014 the stretch of jungle that has become a popular migrant route<\/a> \u2014 the fewest numbers in more than two years. Some experts see<\/a> that as a likely sign of migrants delaying their plans<\/a> until after Mr. Trump\u2019s election, as well as Panama\u2019s efforts to limit <\/span>undocumented migration taking effect.<\/p>\n \u201cWe can\u2019t claim victory, but for the moment we are curbing \u2014 the figures say so \u2014 the flow of migrants,\u201d Javier Mart\u00ednez Acha, Panama\u2019s foreign affairs minister, said in an interview.<\/p>\n In El Salvador, Mr. Trump may find an ally in President Nayib Bukele, who is close to members of the president-elect\u2019s inner circle.<\/p>\n The Bukele administration has not spoken publicly about mass deportations. Asked about specific preparations for mass deportations, an operator with one of the call centers El Salvador set up to provide information to Salvadorans in the United States said, \u201cWe can\u2019t get ahead of ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n Jody Garc\u00eda contributed reporting from Guatemala City, Gabriel Labrador from San Salvador and Mary Triny Zea from Panama City.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nHow have the U.S. and Mexico reduced crossings?<\/h2>\n
What is the status of migrants waiting in Mexico?<\/h2>\n
How is Mexico preparing for mass deportations?<\/h2>\n
Have the factors driving migration changed?<\/h2>\n
What is the situation elsewhere?<\/h2>\n