\n<\/p>\n
\u201cAll of these things are happening all at the same time,\u201d Mr. Gill said. \u201cWe are in one of the most fragile junctures for the world economy.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr. Gill\u2019s assessment echoes those of other analysts. Jamie Dimon,<\/a> the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said last month that \u201cthis may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,\u201d and described the conflict in Gaza as \u201cthe highest and most important thing for the Western world.\u201d<\/p>\n The recent economic troubles have been fueled by deepening geopolitical conflicts that span continents. Tensions between the United States and China over technology transfers and security only complicate efforts to work together on other problems like climate change, debt relief<\/a> or violent regional<\/a> conflicts.<\/p>\n The overriding political preoccupations also mean that traditional monetary and fiscal tools like adjusting interest rates or government spending may be less effective.<\/p>\n The brutal fighting between Israel and Hamas has already taken the lives of thousands of civilians and inflicted wrenching misery on both sides. If the conflict stays contained, though, the ripple effects on the world economy are likely to remain limited, most analysts agree.<\/p>\n Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said on Wednesday that \u201cit isn\u2019t clear at this point that the conflict in the Middle East is on track to have significant economic effects\u201d on the United States, but he added, \u201cThat doesn\u2019t mean it isn\u2019t incredibly important.\u201d<\/p>\n Mideast oil producers do not dominate the market the way they did in the 1970s, when Arab nations drastically cut production and imposed an embargo on the United States and some other countries after a coalition led by Egypt and Syria attacked Israel.<\/p>\n At the moment, the United States is the world\u2019s largest oil producer<\/a>, and alternative and renewable energy sources<\/a> make up a bit more of the world\u2019s energy mix.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a highly volatile, uncertain, scary situation,\u201d said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. But there is \u201ca recognition among most of the parties, the U.S.<\/a>, Europe, Iran, other gulf countries,\u201d he continued, referring to the Persian Gulf, \u201cthat it\u2019s in no one\u2019s interest for this conflict to significantly expand beyond Israel and Gaza.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Bordoff added that missteps, poor communication and misunderstandings, however, could push countries to escalate even if they didn\u2019t want to.<\/p>\n And a significant and sustained drop in the global supply of oil \u2014 whatever the reasons \u2014 could simultaneously slow growth and inflame inflation, a cursed combination known as stagflation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n