\n<\/p>\n
Sometimes, when I poll Oscar voters about the films and performances they plan to nominate, they turn the tables on me.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat do you<\/em> want to happen?\u201d they ask.<\/p>\n Maybe they\u2019re expecting me to advocate for an underseen movie or steer them toward a performance that hasn\u2019t gotten its flowers. Usually, though, my answer is simple: I want them to surprise me. Don\u2019t adhere to the conventional wisdom. Take a chance on things that no one would expect to be nominated.<\/p>\n That goes double for this season, which has remained fairly fluid after back-to-back years when the names of the best picture winner and many of the acting victors felt engraved on statuettes months in advance. No single film has yet dominated this season and many still have a plausible path to victory at the Oscars. It\u2019s fun!<\/p>\n That\u2019s why I hope that more surprises are in store when the Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday, even though part of my job is predicting exactly which way the wind is going to blow. Here is what I project will be nominated (with my predictions in bold) in the top six Oscar categories after taking into account industry chatter and the nominations already bestowed by influential precursors like the Golden Globes<\/a>, Screen Actors Guild<\/a>, Producers Guild of America<\/a> and Directors Guild of America<\/a>. I hope I\u2019m right, but I\u2019d enjoy being wrong.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n At the beginning of the season, it felt like the five strongest best picture contenders came from what I called the A-B-C-D-E tier, since they happened to begin with the first five letters of the alphabet.<\/p>\n I still expect those films to claim half of the best-picture slots, though one of them has slipped somewhat. The four that are best positioned remain \u201c<\/strong>Anora<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> \u201c<\/strong>The Brutalist<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> \u201c<\/strong>Conclave<\/a><\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> and \u201c<\/strong>Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> with their alphabet buddy \u201c<\/strong>Dune: Part Two<\/a><\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> knocked down a few pegs for failing to score a DGA nomination.<\/p>\n After conquering the box office and earning a hefty nomination haul at the SAG Awards, \u201c<\/strong>Wicked<\/a><\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> should extend its magic touch with the Oscars; ditto \u201c<\/strong>A Complete Unknown<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> which took top nominations from the actors and directors guilds, indicating a broad swath of industry support. The wild and gory \u201c<\/strong>The Substance<\/a><\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> is the furthest thing from a traditional Oscar contender, but Demi Moore\u2019s strong campaign has helped to nudge it over the line. And two smaller but well-liked films, \u201c<\/strong>A Real Pain<\/a><\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> and \u201c<\/strong>Sing Sing<\/a><\/strong>,\u201d<\/strong> ought to claim the final slots on the strength of some sure-to-be-nominated performances.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n This category typically goes 4 for 5 with the directors guild, and I project that the auteurs likeliest to make both nomination lists are the Golden Globe winner Brady Corbet<\/strong> (\u201cThe Brutalist\u201d), Sean Baker<\/strong> (\u201cAnora\u201d), Jacques Audiard<\/strong> (\u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d) and Edward Berger<\/strong> (\u201cConclave\u201d). The fifth and most vulnerable DGA nominee is James Mangold (\u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d), who has never been nominated for a best director Oscar despite making Oscar players like \u201cWalk the Line\u201d and \u201cFord v Ferrari.\u201d If Mangold doesn\u2019t make the cut, then who might?<\/p>\n The academy\u2019s directors branch often turns a blind eye to blockbuster filmmaking, so if Jon M. Chu (\u201cWicked\u201d) and Denis Villeneuve (\u201cDune: Part Two\u201d) couldn\u2019t pass muster with the far friendlier directors guild, you shouldn\u2019t expect them to pop up here. This branch is far more partial to international directors, so I expect the European contingent to turn out for the French auteur Coralie Fargeat<\/strong> (\u201cThe Substance\u201d), though you can\u2019t count out Payal Kapadia (\u201cAll We Imagine as Light\u201d), RaMell Ross (\u201cNickel Boys\u201d) or Mohammad Rasoulof (\u201cThe Seed of the Sacred Fig\u201d).<\/p>\n Four best actor contenders have marched through this season in lock step, picking up nominations from the actors guild and the Golden Globes as well as BAFTA, the British awards group that has a significant member overlap with the American academy.<\/p>\n Those four men are Adrien Brody<\/strong>, whose performance in \u201cThe Brutalist\u201d as an immigrant architect won him the Globe for best actor in a drama; Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet<\/strong>, who plays Bob Dylan in \u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d; Colman Domingo<\/strong> as an incarcerated actor in \u201cSing Sing\u201d; and Ralph Fiennes<\/strong> as a conflicted cardinal in \u201cConclave.\u201d They\u2019re in.<\/p>\n The fifth SAG nomination went to Daniel Craig<\/a><\/strong>, who could earn his first Oscar nomination for playing the love-struck protagonist of \u201cQueer\u201d even though his BAFTA countrymen snubbed him: The British group\u2019s list of six instead included the \u201cHeretic\u201d star Hugh Grant as well as Sebastian Stan, for playing Donald Trump in \u201cThe Apprentice.\u201d Stan\u2019s got a shot, but I give Craig the edge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n After delivering a knockout speech at the Golden Globes, Demi Moore<\/a><\/strong> feels like this category\u2019s new front-runner for her role in \u201cThe Substance.\u201d She\u2019ll face competition from two actresses who hail from stronger best picture contenders: Mikey Madison<\/a><\/strong> (\u201cAnora\u201d) and Karla Sof\u00eda Gasc\u00f3n<\/a><\/strong> (\u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d), the latter of whom could become the first openly trans actress to earn an Oscar nomination.<\/p>\n Few contenders close on as strong a note as the \u201cWicked\u201d star Cynthia Erivo<\/a><\/strong>, who gets to belt \u201cDefying Gravity\u201d in her final scene, though it does feel like her character is only getting started and voters may be tempted to wait until the sequel for her just reward. Still, I think Erivo is safe, and this season\u2019s real blood bath will be for the fifth best actress slot.<\/p>\n Former winners Angelina Jolie (\u201cMaria\u201d) and Kate Winslet (\u201cLee\u201d) have been stumping for months, but their films have no momentum. Pamela Anderson (\u201cThe Last Showgirl\u201d) is peaking at the right time with her recent SAG nomination, but the academy can be awfully snobby sometimes and may prove immune to the \u201cBaywatch\u201d actress\u2019s bid for respectability. (Remember when Jennifer Lopez was denied<\/a> a nomination for her career-best turn in \u201cHustlers\u201d?)<\/p>\n With that in mind, the final slot may come down to the Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres, who just won a surprise Golden Globe for \u201cI\u2019m Still Here\u201d; the perennial Oscar favorite Nicole Kidman, so memorably exposed in \u201cBabygirl\u201d; and Marianne Jean-Baptiste<\/a><\/strong>, whose tetchy performance in \u201cHard Truths\u201d has won all the major critics\u2019 prizes. Since BAFTA went with Jean-Baptiste, that\u2019s who I\u2019m picking. Still, this race will be close.<\/p>\n Could this category host a \u201cSuccession\u201d reunion? Kieran Culkin<\/a><\/strong>, star of \u201cA Real Pain,\u201d has been picking up supporting actor prizes all season and is considered a mortal lock to be nominated, while his TV co-star Jeremy Strong<\/strong> has earned nominations from the actors guild, the Golden Globes and BAFTA for his performance as Roy Cohn in \u201cThe Apprentice.\u201d Strong hails from a much more underseen film, but it\u2019s a flashy role and he\u2019s picked up the precursors he needed, so I\u2019m predicting him to make the cut.<\/p>\n Two other men who have nabbed all of those crucial precursors are Edward Norton<\/strong>, appealing as Pete Seeger in \u201cA Complete Unknown,\u201d and Yura Borisov<\/strong>, the love-struck henchman in \u201cAnora,\u201d but who else might make it? In a field of strong contenders that includes Clarence Maclin (\u201cSing Sing\u201d), Denzel Washington (\u201cGladiator II\u201d), Stanley Tucci (\u201cConclave\u201d) and Jonathan Bailey (\u201cWicked\u201d), I\u2019m projecting a nomination for Guy Pearce<\/a><\/strong> (\u201cThe Brutalist\u201d), whose film is peaking at exactly the right time.<\/p>\n Two contenders feel like sure bets in this very uncertain category: Zoe Salda\u00f1a<\/a><\/strong>, who won the Golden Globe for her performance in \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez,\u201d and Ariana Grande<\/strong>, who proved to be a delightful comic actress in \u201cWicked.\u201d They\u2019re also the only two supporting actresses of the season to earn the golden trifecta of nominations from the actors guild, BAFTA and the Golden Globes.<\/p>\n That leaves three spots totally up for grabs. Two contenders scored with SAG but couldn\u2019t find purchase with the Golden Globes or BAFTA: Danielle Deadwyler (\u201cThe Piano Lesson\u201d) and Monica Barbaro (\u201cA Complete Unknown\u201d). Though both deliver strong performances, I\u2019d instead bet on the surging Jamie Lee Curtis<\/strong>, who earned both SAG and BAFTA nominations for her performance in \u201cThe Last Showgirl.\u201d Whether or not the academy ultimately nominates Pamela Anderson for that film, her high-profile campaign buoys Curtis, who is already Oscar-vetted<\/a>.<\/p>\n That leaves four more contenders for two remaining slots, and I\u2019d expect them to be filled by stars who appear in best picture candidates. One could be the \u201cSubstance\u201d star Margaret Qualley, though she missed out on SAG and BAFTA nominations and has seemingly been eclipsed by her co-star, Moore, who gets to do more of the movie\u2019s emotional heavy lifting. Instead, pencil in Isabella Rossellini<\/strong>, who has a small role in \u201cConclave\u201d but a big presence. If she doesn\u2019t score her first Oscar nomination at the age of 72, then when would she?<\/p>\n If voters really take to \u201cThe Brutalist,\u201d Felicity Jones may be our final nominee, but we already know the industry adores \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez,\u201d so watch out for Selena Gomez<\/strong>: Netflix has scored surprise supporting nods in the past for the likes of Jesse Plemons (\u201cThe Power of the Dog\u201d) and Marina de Tavira (\u201cRoma\u201d), and Gomez has been hustling hard all season. The streamer is selling the stars of \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d as a tight-knit trio, and since Salda\u00f1a and Gasc\u00f3n are bound to get in, the door is open for Gomez to dance through, too.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nBest Actor<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Best Supporting Actor<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Best Supporting Actress<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n