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Israel is set to occupy parts of southern Lebanon after a deadline for its full military withdrawal lapses on Sunday, the Israeli government implied in a statement on Friday, amid Israeli concerns that Hezbollah remains active there and doubts about the Lebanese Army\u2019s ability to stymie the militia\u2019s resurgence<\/a>.<\/p>\n Under the terms of a truce between Israel and Hezbollah in late November<\/a>, Israeli troops were supposed to withdraw within 60 days from areas of Lebanon that they had recently wrested from the group\u2019s control. Hezbollah was also required to withdraw from the region, allowing the Lebanese military to assert its control over an area where Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shiite force and political movement, had long dominated.<\/p>\n Less than two days before the deadline, the office of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, announced that Israel\u2019s withdrawal was dependent on the Lebanese Army asserting its full control over the area, adding that the timeline was flexible and implying that Israeli troops would remain in Lebanon beyond the cutoff.<\/p>\n \u201cSince the cease-fire agreement has not yet been fully enforced by Lebanon, the gradual withdrawal process will continue under full cooperation with the United States,\u201d the statement from the Israeli prime minister\u2019s office said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Asked for clarification, the prime minister\u2019s office declined to say if this meant that Israeli troops would definitely remain in Lebanon after the deadline. But Israeli leaders have told American and French mediators that they want to keep some soldiers in southern Lebanon beyond Sunday, according to three officials briefed on the negotiations.<\/p>\n There was no immediate response from Hezbollah or the Lebanese government. But in a statement released publicly on Thursday, Hezbollah said that any \u201cbreach\u201d of the deal would not be tolerated, because it would be \u201ca blatant violation of the agreement, an attack on Lebanese sovereignty and the beginning of a new chapter of occupation.\u201d<\/p>\n Hezbollah officials did not respond to accusations that Hezbollah has failed to live up to its commitments and that the Lebanese military had not yet taken control of the territory in question. Its media relations office said the group was \u201ccommitted\u201d to the terms of the cease-fire deal but would not go into further detail.<\/p>\n Violations of the truce are monitored and investigated by a committee chaired by the United States and involving France. Hezbollah has called on those international monitors and the Lebanese government not to allow \u201cany pretexts or excuses for prolonging the occupation,\u201d but did not say what action it would take if Israeli troops remained.<\/p>\n After two months mostly without conflict, despite occasional<\/a> violations<\/a>, the specter of renewed fighting looms again, even if Hezbollah, battered and exhausted, no longer poses the same threat to Israel as it did at the start of the war nearly 16 months ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n If Israeli troops do remain beyond the weekend without Lebanon\u2019s blessing, Hezbollah will have to choose between accepting the status quo and losing face \u2014 or resuming battle and risking a large Israeli counterattack that would further damage both its decimated ranks and Lebanese civilian infrastructure. Should fighting restart, Israel\u2019s defense minister, Israel Katz, has warned that Israeli strikes would no longer differentiate between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s a serious dilemma for Hezbollah. They are damned if they resist and damned if they don\u2019t,\u201d said Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based analyst for the Atlantic Council, an American research group. \u201cHezbollah\u2019s supporters will not thank the party for resuming war when they are trying to return to their homes and begin rebuilding.\u201d<\/p>\n Since November, Israel has transferred more than 100 military installations and villages to the Lebanese authorities, but still occupies roughly 70 percent of the areas that it captured after invading Lebanon last fall, according to Andrea Tenenti, a spokesman for UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon.<\/p>\n Israeli officials say that the Lebanese Army has yet to signal its willingness to fill the void in those areas, all which are south of the Litani River. Mr. Tenenti said that the Lebanese military stood ready to do so but could not enter places that the Israeli military has yet to vacate.<\/p>\n Asked for comment, the Lebanese military referred to a public statement in which it said that it \u201cmaintains readiness to complete its deployment in the area south of the Litani River immediately after the Israeli enemy withdraws from it.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In recent days, Israeli troops did not appear to be preparing for a complete evacuation, according to an official and an Israeli military officer who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The deadline poses an early quandary for President Trump, who strongly backs Israel but campaigned on a promise of peace for Lebanon.<\/p>\n It is also a test for Lebanon\u2019s new leaders. President Joseph Aoun<\/a> and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam<\/a>, both selected this month, need a peaceful environment to rebuild Lebanon after years of war, political chaos and economic catastrophe. Their authority risks being undermined if they prove powerless to control their own territory and influence either Hezbollah or Israel.<\/p>\n The new Lebanese leadership \u201chas yet to demonstrate adequately that it can be a confident leader in managing Hezbollah \u2014 a weakness that, of course, Israel is going to continue to exploit as justification for staying past the deadline,\u201d said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East program at Chatham House, a London-based foreign affairs research group.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The current conflict began after Hezbollah\u2019s ally Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostages. The next day, Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israeli military positions in solidarity with Hamas, and Israel fired back, leading to daily exchanges that displaced hundreds of thousands of Israeli<\/a> and Lebanese<\/a> civilians and damaged towns on either<\/a> side<\/a> of the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The fighting escalated last summer, after a rocket from Lebanon killed<\/a> a group of children and teenagers in an Israeli-controlled town. Israel assassinated<\/a> most of Hezbollah\u2019s top leadership, sharply increased<\/a> its bombardment of Hezbollah strongholds and then launched a ground invasion<\/a> into southern Lebanon.<\/p>\n The Israeli offensive destroyed<\/a> whole neighborhoods, displaced<\/a> more than a million people and killed several thousand, including many civilians.<\/p>\n The war also led to direct confrontations<\/a> between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah\u2019s main backer.<\/p>\n Bruised and distracted, Hezbollah and Iran were both powerless to prevent the collapse of a third member of their alliance, the Syrian government. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was toppled<\/a> by rebels in December, making it almost impossible for Iran to send arms to Hezbollah through Syrian territory. Within Lebanon, Hezbollah\u2019s strength was diminished<\/a>, leading to the rise of Mr. Aoun and Mr. Salam, who both promised to restore the cohesion and authority of the Lebanese state.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n