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Jordan already is more than half ethnic Palestinian, and for King Abdullah, who will meet with Mr. Trump next week, to accept more Palestinian refugees \u201cwould undermine the kingdom and be the end of the king,\u201d Mr. Milshtein said, a judgment echoed by many. Already, many Jordanians are suspicious that there is \u201ca Zionist conspiracy\u201d to annex the occupied West Bank and create a Palestinian state out of Jordan, he and Mr. Phillips said.<\/p>\n
Egypt may have more acreage and is in desperate need of American financial aid, but its president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, is a fierce opponent of Islamist radicalism, which he has tried to stamp out brutally in the Sinai, and of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a part. The notion that he would allow \u201chundreds of thousands of people supporting Hamas into Egypt\u201d is unthinkable, Mr. Milshtein said.<\/p>\n
Even at the height of the fighting, Mr. el-Sisi created a walled-off area near the border with Gaza in case Gazans were pressed into Egypt, to prevent them from going any farther. And Egypt, which considers itself the most important Arab country, would not want to be seen as being pushed around by Washington.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Christoph Heusgen, a former German ambassador to the United Nations who leads the Munich Security Conference, recalled that Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump\u2019s son-in-law, talked of Gaza as great real estate last year, but then suggested resettling Gazans in Israel, in the Negev. Arab countries will simply refuse a population transfer, he said, \u201cand the only other way is military force, and that\u2019s genocide.\u201d The Saudis are demanding a Palestinian state that Mr. Netanyahu opposes, and Mr. Trump \u201csays he wants out of conflicts,\u201d not to send American troops into another one, Mr. Heusgen said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\u201cIt seems dead on arrival,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
There has been serious diplomatic conversation, begun under Mr. Biden, of some sort of international grouping to oversee Gaza and its reconstruction that would involve officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and other countries under the aegis, at least, of the weak Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas. That presumes that Hamas will no longer be in control.<\/p>\n
But Hamas has no intention of giving up its control or its aims, let alone disarming. It has expressed willingness to create an \u201cadministrative committee\u201d to rule Gaza with other parties, including Arab countries and the Palestinian Authority, expanding on an Egyptian initiative. Such a committee is thought to be only a cosmetic cover that allows Hamas to retain control of security while reducing its responsibility for civilian governance.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump was silent on the future of an independent Palestinian state, which has become a crucial demand of Saudi Arabia after the destruction and death in Gaza. The Saudis were quick to oppose Mr. Trump\u2019s plan in a statement overnight, and made it clear that any normalization with Israel, as Mr. Trump wants to promote, is dependent on concrete steps toward a viable independent Palestinian state, including Gaza. That is exactly the outcome that Mr. Netanyahu has vowed to prevent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the first Trump presidency, said Mr. Trump was setting out an initial negotiating stance. This is \u201ca starting position,\u201d she said. \u201cIt\u2019s a negotiation \u2014 it\u2019s the Middle East.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n