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Sometimes, the period after the Oscar nominations can feel like a snooze. There may be a notable snub<\/a> that\u2019s worth discussing for a few days, but things eventually settle down and people begin to behave themselves as they head into the final stretch of the season.<\/p>\n This hasn\u2019t been that.<\/p>\n The last two weeks in particular have been some of the most tumultuous in recent memory, thanks in large part to the controversy involving old tweets<\/a> made by one of the \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d stars, Karla Sof\u00eda Gasc\u00f3n. The initially defiant actress went rogue to defend herself, keeping her scandal in the headlines during several crucial voting periods. Now, a film that led the field with 13 Oscar nominations has been hobbled.<\/p>\n After all of that turbulence, where do things stand? Here are five narratives now emerging from the season that I plan to keep an eye on.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n As this year began, the awards-season aspirations of \u201cAnora<\/a>\u201d appeared to stall out. The Sean Baker-directed comedy went winless at the Golden Globes on Jan. 5, and that failure-to-launch feeling lingered over the next few weeks when the Critics Choice Awards, where \u201cAnora\u201d hoped to score anew, were postponed from Jan. 12 to Feb. 7 because of the Los Angeles wildfires.<\/p>\n What a difference a weekend makes. On Friday, \u201cAnora\u201d picked up a best-picture prize at that delayed Critics Choice ceremony,<\/a> and scored top honors the next night<\/a> at separate shows held by the Directors Guild of America and the Producers Guild of America. Any movie that triumphs with both of those guilds has to be considered the best-picture front-runner, even though five years ago, \u201c1917\u201d conquered at the PGA and DGA awards and still lost the top Oscar to \u201cParasite.\u201d<\/p>\n While surveying the best-picture field<\/a> in mid-December, I noted that whenever I spoke to voters and industry insiders about their favorite films of the year, \u201cAnora\u201d was the title that came up again and again. Both that movie and \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d had built strong coalitions across many different voting demographics. With the latter wounded, it\u2019s now \u201cAnora\u201d that has taken the lead.<\/p>\n \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d may be down, but can it be counted entirely out? This past weekend painted a mixed picture of its post-scandal chances: Though it managed three wins at the Critics Choice Awards, including a supporting-actress prize for Zoe Salda\u00f1a<\/a>, voting for that ceremony closed weeks before Gasc\u00f3n\u2019s tweets came to light. At the PGA awards, where voting ended just as the Gascon controversy ramped up, and the DGA awards, where voting closed two days after the film\u2019s director, Jacques Audiard, disavowed Gasc\u00f3n and her comments in an interview, \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d went home empty-handed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n If the movie still has a shot at picking up major Oscars, it needs to build a bulwark at this weekend\u2019s BAFTA awards, since that British voting body shares a significant overlap with the academy. The movie swept December\u2019s European Film Awards, where it won every category it was nominated in (including a best-actress victory for Gasc\u00f3n), so a good showing at BAFTA would indicate that international voters remain enamored with \u201cEmilia\u201d and either unaware or unconcerned when it comes to the controversies<\/a> that have engulfed it.<\/p>\n And though I don\u2019t think stateside voters will take Gasc\u00f3n\u2019s actions out on her co-star Salda\u00f1a, the Screen Actors Guild awards later this month will test that theory: That nominating committee went wild for \u201cWicked,\u201d so I expect the supporting-actress contender Ariana Grande to at least put up a fight.<\/p>\n To be considered a major best-picture contender, a film typically needs to score a best-director nomination, too. So how should a movie press on after the directors\u2019 branch delivers a snub?<\/p>\n Two of this year\u2019s contenders hope to chart an unconventional path. Pretty much everyone I\u2019ve spoken to enjoyed \u201cConclave<\/a>\u201d as a pulpy but elevated thriller, though it\u2019s rare to find someone who considers it their bar-none, number-one movie of the year. No matter: The \u201cConclave\u201d awards strategy, which counts on the unique preferential ballot used by the Oscars, is to make a strong go of it by being everybody\u2019s number-two<\/em> movie. A movie that compiles enough points from second-place votes could very well beat out a film that ranks first on some ballots, but toward the bottom on others. In a season packed with controversy, maybe that likability will be enough.<\/p>\n \u201cWicked\u201d has an even tougher path, since it lacks both a director and screenplay nomination, and no film since 1932\u2019s \u201cGrand Hotel\u201d has taken the best-picture trophy without those key nods. Still, I\u2019ve talked to voters who plan to cast votes for \u201cWicked\u201d simply because the success of that kind of spectacle is good for both Hollywood and the Oscars. (Pour out a glass of glowing Bene Gesserit juice for \u201cDune: Part Two,\u201d the other blockbuster nominated for best picture, as it simply hasn\u2019t been able to marshal that same rah-rah enthusiasm.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n At a reception before the DGA awards on Saturday, I polled my fellow pundits and a clutch of publicists on which contender they expected to prevail. Every person I spoke to predicted that Brady Corbet would take home the night\u2019s top honor for his epic period drama \u201cThe Brutalist,\u201d which he somehow pulled off on a budget of under $10 million. For rising to that challenge, Corbet had already won the Golden Globe for best director, and in an era in which the best-picture and best-director Oscars can often go to two separate films, he seemed to have a strong shot at taking at least one of those prizes.<\/p>\n I wondered if Sean Baker, who directed \u201cAnora,\u201d had heard those same predictions, since he seemed utterly shocked when he and not Corbet was announced as the DGA winner. It helped, I think, that Baker is an affable director who\u2019s known in filmmaking circles, while the serious-minded Corbet is an actor-turned-director who is only just now breaking into the mainstream. And though those who love \u201cThe Brutalist\u201d really, really love it, the three-hour, thirty-five minute movie can be polarizing: I have not encountered scads of women who consider it their favorite film of the year. Like \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez,\u201d the movie will now have to count on some BAFTA victories to help it make up momentum.<\/p>\n Is the international-film Oscar back in play? Just weeks ago, you\u2019d have been a fool to bet against \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez\u201d in that category, since the prize almost always goes to the movie with the strongest best-picture shot. But with that film now on the ropes, we could have a real race on our hands.<\/p>\n Any Oscar voter who has befriended or even brushed shoulders with a Brazilian has likely received a text from that person in recent weeks, since advocating for \u201cI\u2019m Still Here\u201d and its leading lady, Fernanda Torres, has practically become a national pastime. It\u2019s true that the Walter Salles-directed movie, about an activist whose dissident husband is disappeared by Brazil\u2019s military dictatorship, faces an uphill battle in the best-picture and best-actress categories. (\u201cThe Substance\u201d star Demi Moore<\/a> is still the favorite in the latter contest). Still, as the only other major contender in the international-film category, there\u2019s a path for \u201cI\u2019m Still Here\u201d to win over voters who\u2019d prefer a tasteful alternative to the scandal-tarred \u201cEmilia P\u00e9rez.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\u2018Emilia P\u00e9rez\u2019 looks for a lifeline<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u2018Conclave\u2019 and \u2018Wicked\u2019 go the long route<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Bupkis for \u2018Brutalist\u2019<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u2018I\u2019m Still Here\u2019 waits in the wings<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n