\n<\/p>\n
Russia has said it would agree to a limited cease-fire<\/a> that would stop attacks on energy infrastructure, a proposal Kyiv has signaled it is open to but has yet to officially approve. An agreement would be the first significant step toward de-escalation since the start of the full-scale war more than three years ago.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, Ukraine<\/a> and Russia<\/a> traded accusations of attacks against each other\u2019s energy infrastructure, a day after the proposed agreement was reported, highlighting the lack of trust between the two countries and how tenuous any deal would be.<\/p>\n Strikes against energy facilities have been a key part of both countries\u2019 efforts to weaken the other. Russia has launched repeated attacks on Ukraine\u2019s power grid to undermine its war effort by making life as difficult as possible for civilians, experts say. Ukraine\u2019s strikes on Russian facilities are aimed at cutting the revenues of Russia\u2019s sprawling oil industry, which have been used to fund the country\u2019s military.<\/p>\n Russia began attacking<\/a> Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure in October 2022 after it became clear that its initial plan to achieve a swift victory had failed. Moscow opted for a war of attrition in which Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure became a key target.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Ukraine began repeatedly targeting Russia\u2019s energy infrastructure<\/a> in early 2024 to try to inflict pain on the heart of the Russian economy \u2014 its oil and gas industry \u2014 and to limit the supply of fuel to its military<\/a>. Kyiv\u2019s aim appeared to be twofold, experts say: to reduce Russia\u2019s oil revenues, and to produce a psychological effect by causing large-scale fires at critical infrastructure facilities.<\/p>\n Russian attacks on Ukraine\u2019s energy infrastructure have been a key part of Moscow\u2019s effort to bring the country to its knees<\/a>. The goal, energy experts say, has been to choke off the energy resources that fuel Ukraine\u2019s economy and ultimately its war effort. But it also appears intended to make life so unbearable for people \u2014 plunging them into cold and darkness<\/a> \u2014 that it breaks their morale.<\/p>\n Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the former head of Ukrenergo, Ukraine\u2019s national electricity operator, said Russia constantly changed its targets and tactics to undermine Ukraine\u2019s ability to defend its energy system.<\/p>\n Moscow has used complex waves of long-range drones and ballistic missiles<\/a> to overwhelm Kyiv\u2019s air defenses. After Ukraine began reinforcing its main electricity substations with concrete bunkers, Russia shifted to striking thermal power plants directly<\/a> and to attacking less protected substations connected to nuclear power plants<\/a>.<\/p>\n Over the past year, Ukrainian drones have flown deep into Russian territory, hitting oil refineries<\/a>, depots, storage units, pipelines and pumping stations. The attacks have disrupted oil flows that pass through Russian seaport oil terminals and the Druzhba pipeline, which takes crude to some European countries.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n That has threatened to undercut Moscow\u2019s revenue from energy sales abroad. It has not been possible to independently determine how much of Russia\u2019s oil revenues have been affected by the attacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The attacks on oil refineries reduced the country\u2019s refining capacity by around 10 percent at one point, according to Reuters<\/a>, which has been calculating the effect of damage.<\/p>\n But Russian oil giants have also been able<\/a> to quickly repair some damage. According to Mikhail Krutikhin, an independent Russian energy analyst living in exile in Oslo, the damage inflicted on Russian oil refineries \u201chas never been critical.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Krutikhin said in a phone interview that Russia could always redirect crude oil flows away from a damaged refinery since the country has so many refineries. Sometimes, refineries had to start producing jet fuel that had more sulfur in it, he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cThis is bad for the environment, but fighter jets can continue to fly,\u201d Mr. Krutikhin said. He added, however, that the attacks could produce damage in the long term, because some parts of oil refineries might take years to get produced and installed.<\/p>\n Sergey Vakulenko, an energy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a research group, said Russian oil companies had to spend no more than $1 billion to repair the damage inflicted by Ukrainian attacks.<\/p>\n Since the fall of 2022, Moscow has repeatedly used drones and missiles to strike substations that distribute electricity, power plants that generate it, and, more recently, gas facilities.<\/p>\n The Kyiv School of Economics<\/a> estimates that damage to Ukraine\u2019s energy sector has reached at least $14.6 billion. Several hydroelectric and thermal power plants have been completely destroyed by the attacks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n By the end of last year, Ukraine\u2019s total electricity-generating capacity had dropped to some 22 gigawatts, less than half of its prewar level, according to DiXi Group<\/a>, a Ukrainian energy research organization.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n The power shortages have forced Ukraine to impose nationwide rolling blackouts to ease strain on the grid<\/a>. On some days, neighborhoods in Kyiv, the capital, had as little as four hours of electricity. Many civilians have resorted to candles to light homes and relied on cellphone flashlights to navigate unlit streets.<\/p>\n Water pumping systems have sometimes failed, making life difficult for citizens as the flow of running water to their homes was cut. During the first winter of the war, long lines formed at wells in Kyiv as residents hauled jugs of water<\/a> back to their unheated apartments.<\/p>\n Still, Russia has failed in its attempts to completely collapse Ukraine\u2019s energy system. Ukraine has endured the assaults<\/a>, thanks to Western-supplied air defenses that enabled it to gradually intercept more Russian missiles, round-the-clock work by engineers to repair vital equipment and the energy-saving ingenuity of residents<\/a>.<\/p>\n Ukraine has also relied on its three operational nuclear power stations, which Russia has avoided targeting to prevent a nuclear disaster, to meet up to half of the country\u2019s electricity needs during certain periods.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Experts say it is difficult to determine which country stands to gain more from a cease-fire on attacks targeting energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n Mr. Kudrytskyi said a pause would give Ukraine crucial time to repair substations and power plants without the threat of new strikes. <\/p>\n The cease-fire would also give Ukraine time to replenish its stocks of critical spare equipment, including valuable transformers needed to transmit electricity from power stations to people\u2019s homes. Ukraine has burned through its stocks in an effort to replace damaged equipment.<\/p>\n For the Kremlin, the suspension in Ukrainian attacks would mean that the war and its effects would appear even more distant to the Russian public. Moscow also would no longer need to worry that such attacks could damage critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nThe Strategy Behind the Attacks<\/h2>\n
The Effect on Russia<\/h2>\n
The Effect on Ukraine<\/h2>\n
Who Has More to Gain?<\/h2>\n