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But the Ukraine war and migration no longer dominate voters\u2019 concerns, said Agoston Mraz, director of the Nezopont Institute, which conducts polls for Mr. Orban\u2019s government.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe inflation issue is now the most important by far,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Still, eager to change the topic and rev up Mr. Orban\u2019s conservative base, his supporters in Parliament on Tuesday amended a law on public assembly to ban gay pride parades, the latest in a series of efforts to target the country\u2019s L.G.B.T.Q. community.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s no escaping the economic realities.<\/p>\n
Overall, Hungarian food prices in February, according to official figures released last week, were 7.1 percent higher than a year earlier, meaning that food is now more than 80 percent dearer than five years ago, according to calculations by ING Bank.<\/p>\n
Mr. Mraz said that, according to his institute\u2019s polling, Fidesz still had a solid lead over Mr. Magyar\u2019s Tisza party but was vulnerable on the economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Economic woes have also weakened Hungary\u2019s hand in its long struggle with the European Union over sanctions on Russia \u2014 Mr. Orban wants them removed \u2014 and a host of other issues relating to the rule of law, democracy and corruption.<\/p>\n
Short of cash to fill a big hole in its budget, Hungary has no real chance of getting financial aid from Mr. Trump, despite their close political ties, and increasingly needs money from the European Union, which has frozen more than $20 billion earmarked for it years ago.<\/p>\n
In a blunt warning to Mr. Orban, who has infuriated European leaders by constantly vilifying them, the European Union\u2019s executive arm on Dec. 31 took about 1 billion euros, or about $1.1 billion, of Hungary\u2019s frozen money off the table, saying a time limit had expired.<\/p>\n
On Friday, after weeks of attacks on the bloc by Mr. Orban as an \u201cempire\u201d of \u201cwarmongers\u201d before which his country would never bow, Hungary quietly sheathed its veto power and agreed to allow the renewal of European sanctions imposed on more than 2,400 mostly Russian individuals and entities.<\/p>\n
Mr. Orban\u2019s jeremiads against Brussels, said Zoltan Pogatsa, an economics professor at the University of West Hungary, play well with his nationalist political base but \u201cdon\u2019t help pay the bills.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Before the European Union froze the bulk of its funding, he added, \u201cmoney from Brussels drove most of the growth during what Mr. Orban calls the golden years,\u201d a period of high growth and relatively stable prices during his first decade in power before the Covid pandemic.<\/p>\n
After slipping into recession last year, Hungary\u2019s economy is growing again, albeit at a very slow pace. But investment, a key driver of future growth, has plummeted, Mr. Pogatsa said. And the hole in the budget \u2014 a gap criticized by the European Union last month as an \u201cexcessive deficit situation\u201d \u2014 is likely to balloon if, as he did before the last election in 2022, Mr. Orban offers handouts to voters before the one next year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Mr. Orban last month announced what he described as the \u201cbiggest tax reduction program in Europe,\u201d promising to exempt mothers with two or more children from income tax and give pensioners a rebate on the value-added tax they pay on foodstuffs.<\/p>\n
At 27 percent, Hungary has the highest such tax in the European Union, and many economists say the easiest way to reduce food prices would be to reduce it, and also a special 4.5 percent tax on retailers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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But doing that would increase the budget deficit at a time when neither the European Union nor the United States is offering cash.<\/p>\n
The ratings agency Standard & Poor said in November that it had downgraded its outlook for Hungary to negative, largely because it \u201cmay ultimately lose out on a substantial amount of the envisaged European Union funds.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cNo matter how much anti-E.U. rhetoric he uses, Orban realizes that he still has to squeeze some juice out of Brussels,\u201d said Lajos Bokros, a former finance minister.<\/p>\n
He said Mr. Orban viewed inflation and other problems entirely through a political lens. \u201cHis government created inflation with its loose spending,\u201d he said, \u201cbut lies to voters that it was imported from outside\u201d \u2014 by supermarket chains, most of which are foreign-owned, and by higher energy prices because of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Sensing political danger ahead, Mr. Orban responded swiftly to the release of official data showing that Hungary\u2019s year-on-year inflation rate had risen in February to 5.6 percent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n