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The question now, analysts said, is whether Turkey will remain a mix of democracy and autocracy or shift significantly toward the latter.<\/p>\n
Barring Mr. Imamoglu from the presidential race would put Turkey in league with countries like Russia, Belarus or Azerbaijan, where elections happen but make little difference, said Hasan Sinar, a professor of criminal law at Altinbas University in Istanbul, who is also defending another elected Istanbul official accused of terrorism links.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey have elections, but they are so-called elections because the president himself is designing the opposition and deciding who is going to run against him,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Mr. Erdogan on Thursday dismissed opposition calls for protests over the mayor\u2019s arrest as \u201ctheatrics.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\u201cThe opposition never responds to the allegations brought forward by the judiciary,\u201d he said. \u201cInstead, they confine the matter to political slogans, resorting to the easy way of provoking their base and deceiving the public.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The political turmoil came as Turkey found itself well-positioned to benefit from recent global events. A rebel group it supported leads the new government in Syria. The Trump administration has shown little interest in whether its foreign partners follow democratic standards. And concerns that the United States will stop supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia have pushed European leaders to seek stronger defense ties with Turkey.<\/p>\n
Those interests could blunt foreign criticism of Mr. Erdogan\u2019s governance, analysts said. U.S. officials have said little about Mr. Imamoglu\u2019s arrest, but some European leaders have expressed concern.<\/p>\n
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany on Thursday called the arrest a \u201cvery, very bad sign\u201d for Turkey\u2019s relations with the European Union.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe can only call for this to end immediately and for the opposition and the government to stand in competition with each other, and not the opposition being brought to court,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Mr. Erdogan\u2019s current, second presidential term ends in 2028. The Constitution allows only two terms, but he could legally run again if Parliament called early elections, which are widely expected. That could put Mr. Erdogan, 71, on the ballot against Mr. Imamoglu, 54.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The mayor\u2019s arrest followed a series of recent government moves against perceived critics.<\/p>\n
Since January, a well-known journalist and an agent who represents famous actors have been arrested in connection with anti-government protests more than a decade ago that the state suppressed and criminalized.<\/p>\n
Last month, two top officials in a prominent business association criticized the government\u2019s economic program, the prosecutions of prominent figures and insufficient adherence to the rule of law. State prosecutors indicted them both on charges of spreading false information and recommended prison sentences of up to five and a half years.<\/p>\n
Since October, the authorities have removed three Istanbul district mayors on accusations of corruption and terrorism. One has been replaced with a government appointee.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Less prominent figures have also fallen afoul of the government. An astrologer was detained last month and accused of insulting Mr. Erdogan and another senior politician. The Trade Ministry investigated a food vlogger who positively reviewed a restaurant subsidized by Mr. Imamoglu\u2019s city government to see if he had been paid to do so.<\/p>\n
Mr. Imamoglu became mayor in an upset victory in 2019. The government got the results thrown out, citing alleged irregularities, but in a redo, Mr. Imamoglu won again by an even larger margin. He was re-elected last year, defeating a candidate backed by Mr. Erdogan.<\/p>\n
During his time as mayor, the government has launched 42 administrative and 51 judicial investigations of Mr. Imamoglu, his aides said, which together seek to hobble his administration and remove him from the presidential race. In one case, he stands accused of corruption during a previous job as a district mayor. He was convicted in another of insulting public officials by calling the judges who overturned his initial victory in 2019 \u201cfools.\u201d He has appealed the verdict.<\/p>\n
Before his arrest this week, his alma mater, Istanbul University, announced that it had annulled his diploma, citing improper procedures in his transfer from a university in Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus in 1990. He has vowed to appeal, but if the decision stands, it could bar him from the presidency because the Constitution stipulates that the president must have a university degree.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n