\n<\/p>\n
Russia and Ukraine have said they are committed to cease fighting in the Black Sea<\/a>, but it remains unclear whether an agreement can come into force soon \u2014 if at all.<\/p>\n Russia had a major caveat: it would abide by the deal only after various restrictions were removed from its agricultural exports. The penalties were imposed by the United States and the European Union, and removing them would be an arduous process.<\/p>\n Kyiv and Moscow also appear to have different interpretations of the U.S.-brokered agreement announced on Tuesday. Russia framed it<\/a> as a way to revive a 2022 U.N.-backed deal giving it some control over commercial shipping through the sea. Kyiv, however, insisted that<\/a> it would not allow the Russian Navy back into the western Black Sea, which Ukraine uses at its main seaborne export route.<\/p>\n Underscoring the mistrust between the two countries, each side accused the other of breaching the truce on Wednesday. Ukraine reported an attack on its port city of Mykolaiv, while Moscow said it shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Russia\u2019s conditions highlighted how it is in no hurry to end the war. With a sympathetic administration in the White House and as its forces have the upper hand on the battlefield, Moscow has been determined to get as many concessions as possible.<\/p>\n The Kremlin said<\/a> it would not agree to a maritime cease-fire deal unless its state agriculture bank and other financial institutions involved in the trade of food and fertilizers were reconnected to the international payment system known as Swift.<\/p>\n The system has its headquarters in Belgium, meaning that the United States would need to press European regulators to agree. In a statement<\/a> about the deal, the White House pledged that it would \u201chelp restore Russia\u2019s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports.\u201d<\/p>\n Moscow said it also wanted Western companies to restore deliveries of agricultural equipment to Russia and sanctions removed against its companies, ships and insurers involved in the food and fertilizer trade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Russia says its exports of grain and fertilizers reached $45 billion in 2023. Even during the war, Russia has been exporting record-high volumes of grain and fertilizers, said Andrei Sizov, director of SovEcon, a Russian consultancy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n If sanctions were lifted against a Russian state bank, the Kremlin could use it for other transactions, too, said Aleksandr Kolyandr, a Russia analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis.<\/p>\n \u201cThe minute you have a sanctions-free bank, you can use it for whatever you want,\u201d Mr. Kolyandr said. \u201cIt can be an instrument to crack the sanctions regime,\u201d he said, but \u201cit is much easier to monitor just one bank.\u201d<\/p>\n While Kyiv said it would comply with the maritime cease-fire, it remains skeptical about Moscow\u2019s intentions.<\/p>\n President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said on Tuesday that Russia\u2019s demand for lifting sanctions showed that it was \u201calready trying to distort agreements.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Mr. Zelensky also said the U.S. commitment to help bolster Russian agricultural exports was \u201ca weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n Given Russia\u2019s demands and the differing interpretations both sides have of the deal, it remains unclear what Ukraine stand to gain. Experts note the White House did not say whether the deal would protect Ukrainian ports from Russian attacks and enable the reopening of the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson \u2014 two demands that Ukraine had pushed for during negotiations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Kyiv also has little interest in returning to the 2022 U.N.-backed agreement that Russia wants to revive. The deal allowed Ukraine to export its grain through an agreed upon Black Sea corridor, and Russia to inspect all commercial ships to ensure that they did not carry weapons.<\/p>\n But Andrii Klymenko, the head of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, said the inspections delayed exports so much that it made the route unprofitable. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n After Russia backed out of the deal, Ukraine secured its own shipping corridor by pushing the Russian Navy out of the western parts of the Black Sea<\/a>. That allowed seaborne grain exports to return to near-prewar levels<\/a>.<\/p>\n Last week, in a phone conversation with President Trump, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia agreed to halt attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days. Ukraine, which has been in favor of a full immediate cease-fire, followed suit. Both countries have reaffirmed their commitment to institute a 30-day moratorium on energy strikes.<\/p>\n On Tuesday, the Kremlin listed facilities that fall under the moratorium. That includes refineries, pipelines and storage facilities, nuclear plants, hydroelectric dams and energy transmission infrastructure. But it seemingly excluded gas and oil extraction sites \u2014 facilities that Ukraine says have been increasingly attacked by Russia recently and that Kyiv included<\/a> in its own cease-fire list.<\/p>\n The energy cease-fire situation, experts say, highlights how Moscow portrays itself as open to negotiations without making major concessions.<\/p>\n Rustem Umerov, Ukraine\u2019s defense minister, said Tuesday<\/a> that \u201cadditional technical consultations\u201d were needed to effectively carry out the energy and maritime agreements.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nWhat were Russia\u2019s terms?<\/h2>\n
What is Ukraine\u2019s position?<\/h2>\n
What may happen next?<\/h2>\n