\n<\/p>\n
The F-35, a fifth-generation fighter, was developed in partnership with eight countries, making it a model of international cooperation<\/a>. When President Trump introduced its successor, the F-47, he praised its strengths \u2014 and said the version sold to allies would be deliberately downgraded.<\/p>\n That made sense, Mr. Trump said last week, \u201cbecause someday, maybe they\u2019re not our allies.\u201d<\/p>\n For many countries wedded to the United States, his remark confirmed a related conclusion: that America can no longer be trusted. Even nations not yet directly affected can see where things are heading, as Mr. Trump threatens allies\u2019 economies, their defense partnerships and even their sovereignty.<\/p>\n For now, they are negotiating to minimize the pain from blow after blow, including a broad round of tariffs expected in April. But at the same time, they are pulling back. Preparing for intimidation to be a lasting feature of U.S. relations, they are trying to go their own way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n A few examples:<\/p>\n Canada made a $4.2 billion deal with Australia<\/a> this month to develop cutting-edge radar and announced that it was in talks to take part in<\/a> the European Union\u2019s military buildup.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Portugal and other NATO nations are reconsidering plans<\/a> to buy F-35s, fearing American control over parts and software.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Negotiations over a free trade and technology deal between the European Union and India have suddenly accelerated<\/a> after years of delays.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Brazil is not only increasing trade with China, it\u2019s doing it in China\u2019s currency<\/a>, sidelining the dollar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n In several countries, including Poland, South Korea and Australia, discussions about whether to build or secure access to nuclear weapons<\/a> for their own protection are now commonplace.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Some degree of distancing from the United States had already been in motion as other countries became wealthier, more capable and less convinced that American centrality would be permanent. But the past few months of Trump 2.0 have supercharged the process.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n History and psychology help explain why. Few forces have such a powerful, long-lasting impact on geopolitics as distrust, according to social scientists who study international relations. It has repeatedly poisoned negotiations in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It kept Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union burning for decades.<\/p>\n So-called realists \u2014 who see international relations as an amoral contest between self-interested states \u2014 argue that trust should always be assessed with skepticism, because believing in good intentions is risky.<\/p>\n But Mr. Trump has sparked more than cautious suspicion. His own distrust of allies, evident in his zero-sum belief<\/a> that gains for others are losses for America, has been reciprocated. What it\u2019s created is familiar \u2014 a distrust spiral. If you think the other person (or country) is not trustworthy, you\u2019re more likely to break rules and contracts without shame, studies show<\/a>, reinforcing a partner\u2019s own distrust, leading to more aggression or reduced interaction.<\/p>\n \u201cTrust is fragile,\u201d Paul Slovic, a psychologist at the University of Oregon, wrote in a seminal 1993 study<\/a> on risk, trust and democracy. \u201cIt is typically created rather slowly, but it can be destroyed in an instant \u2014 by a single mishap or mistake.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In Mr. Trump\u2019s case, allies point to a sustained assault.<\/p>\n His tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which ignored the North American free trade deal that he signed during his first term, stunned America\u2019s neighbors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n His threats to make Canada an American state and send the U.S. military into Mexico to go after drug cartels were brash intrusions on sovereignty, not unlike his demands for Greenland and the Panama Canal. His blaming of Ukraine for the war that Russia started further alienated allies, forcing them to ask: Is the United States a defender of dictators or democracy?<\/p>\n Relatively quickly, they have determined that even if Mr. Trump\u2019s boldest proposals \u2014 like turning Gaza into a Mideast Riviera \u2014 are fantasies, the trend lines point in the same direction: toward a world order less like the Olympics and more like Ultimate Fighting.<\/p>\n Perhaps no country is more shocked than Canada. It shares the world\u2019s largest undefended border with the United States, despite their wide disparity in military strength. Why? Because Canadians trusted America. Now, in large part, they do not.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Mark Carney, Canada\u2019s prime minister, said on Thursday that his country\u2019s traditional relationship with the United States was \u201cover.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTrump has violated the deep assumption in Canadian foreign policy that the U.S. is an inherently trustworthy nation,\u201d said Brian Rathbun, a global affairs professor at the University of Toronto. \u201cThat is very threatening to basic Canadian interests in trade and security, leading it to cast around for alternatives.\u201d<\/p>\n Economic patriotism is somewhat new for Canada, but it has given rise to a Buy Canadian<\/a> movement that urges consumers to shun American products and stocks. Canadians are also canceling U.S. holidays in large numbers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n More significant in the longer term, Mr. Trump\u2019s threats have forged a surprising consensus around a policy that had been contentious or ignored: that Canada should be building pipelines, ports and other infrastructure east to west, not north to south, to reduce its reliance on the United States and push its resources outward to Asia and Europe.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Europe is further ahead in this process. After the U.S. election, the European Union finalized a trade deal<\/a> with South American countries to create one of the world\u2019s largest trade zones, and it has worked toward closer trade ties with India<\/a>, South Africa<\/a>, South Korea<\/a> and Mexico<\/a>.<\/p>\n Japan, America\u2019s largest ally in Asia, has also been prioritizing new markets in the global south, where fast-growing economies like Vietnam\u2019s offer new customers.<\/p>\n \u201cThere has been the emerging perception in Japan that we definitely have to change the portfolio of our investments,\u201d said Ken Jimbo, a professor of international politics and security at Keio University in Tokyo. For the current administration and those that follow, he added, \u201cwe have to adjust our expectations of the American alliance.\u201d<\/p>\n On the defense front, what some call \u201cde-Americanization\u201d is more challenging. This is especially true in Asia, where there is no NATO equivalent, and reliance on American support has somewhat stunted the militaries of countries that the United States has promised to defend (Japan, South Korea and the Philippines).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n On Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was in Manila<\/a>, promising to \u201ctruly prioritize and shift to this region.\u201d But many of America\u2019s partners are now working together without the United States, signing reciprocal access agreements for each other\u2019s troops and building new coalitions to deter China as much as they can.<\/p>\n Europe, too, is years away<\/a> from being able to fully defend itself without the help of U.S. weaponry and technology. Yet in response to the Trump administration\u2019s tariffs, threats and general disdain \u2014 as in the leaked Signal chat in which Mr. Hegseth called Europe \u201cpathetic\u201d \u2014 the European Union recently announced plans to ramp up military spending. That includes a 150 billion euro loan<\/a> program to finance defense investment.<\/p>\n The 27-nation European Union is also increasingly collaborating with two nonmembers, Britain and Norway, on defending Ukraine and on other strategic defense priorities.<\/p>\n For some countries, none of this is quite enough. Poland\u2019s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told Parliament<\/a> in early March that Poland would explore gaining access to nuclear weapons, fearing that Mr. Trump could not be trusted to defend a fellow NATO nation fully.<\/p>\n\n