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As China faces off with the United States over a punishing trade war, it is under pressure to shore up its friendships around the world, starting with its neighbors in Southeast Asia. But its relations there are complicated.<\/p>\n
China\u2019s leader, Xi Jinping, will be testing these ties this week as he visits Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia in the hope of blunting the effect of huge tariffs imposed by President Trump on Chinese exports to the United States.<\/p>\n
Mr. Xi is likely to cast China as a reliable global partner in contrast to the unpredictable United States of President Trump, whose on-again, off-again tariffs have upended financial markets and confounded governments. While in Vietnam, for instance, Mr. Xi is expected to oversee the signing of around 40 agreements, including deals that would advance plans for Vietnam to accept Chinese loans for part of a $8.3 billion railway connecting northern Vietnam with China.<\/p>\n
But his visit also points to a diplomatic tightrope that countries like Vietnam and Malaysia must walk as the Southeast Asian nations try to negotiate with the Trump administration for a reprieve from the tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Mr. Xi\u2019s tour will start in Vietnam on Monday, followed by a three-day visit to Malaysia, ending the week in Cambodia.<\/p>\n
For the past decade, Beijing has engaged in a huge push to extend its economic and political influence across Southeast Asia. <\/strong>China is now the region\u2019s most important trading partner. Senior officials, including Mr. Xi, regularly travel there.<\/p>\n China is a major market for Vietnam\u2019s agricultural products, while Vietnam imports raw materials from China for many factories driving exports. Between 60 and 90 percent of the raw materials for Vietnamese apparel heading for the U.S. market comes from China.<\/p>\n Trade, a complicated issue, is likely to top the agenda. Caught between the U.S. tariffs and the risks of China\u2019s goods flooding local economies, Southeast Asia finds itself with limited options.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in his first term, these countries have been alternative routes for those goods to reach the United States. That made Vietnam and Cambodia a target for Mr. Trump\u2019s steep tariffs \u2014 which he has paused for 90 days.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n These countries will also be concerned that as a result of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has maintained on Chinese goods, a glut of cheap Chinese goods, shut out of the U.S. market, could instead flow into Southeast Asia and overwhelm economies there.<\/p>\n Mr. Xi will want to know more about how other countries might respond to the U.S.-China trade war. He will also want to bolster ties in case frictions arise, said Ja Ian Chong, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is the very real potential that P.R.C. goods will start flowing to these areas and questions about overcapacity, potential Chinese dumping would come up again,\u201d he said, referring to the People\u2019s Republic of China. \u201cSo he\u2019s got to fix those relations.\u201d<\/p>\n Sonal Varma, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Nomura, said that local economies would probably introduce measures to prevent China from dumping its goods on local economies. \u201cEvery country is now trying to protect its home turf,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While seeking opportunities from China, the Southeast Asian leaders may also need to avoid appearing too close.<\/p>\n There are fears among some Vietnamese officials, for instance, that the high-profile nature of Mr. Xi\u2019s trip, as well as language emphasizing China\u2019s partnerships, might make it harder for Vietnam to win a long-term reprieve from Mr. Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n \u201cVietnam surely welcomes Xi\u2019s visit to minimize its economic pains,\u201d said Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in the Political Science Department at Boston College. \u201cBut it will have to avoid creating the impression that Vietnam is siding with China while negotiating a tariff reduction with the Trump administration.\u201d<\/p>\n The prime minister of Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim, defended the region\u2019s relationship with China at a recent gathering of its officials.<\/p>\n \u201cChina is a very important player we can\u2019t ignore and yes, some countries have problems with it,\u201d he said at the meeting. \u201cWe continue to navigate in the best manner possible, to secure peace, security and obtain most benefits in terms of economy and investments.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nBalancing China with the United States<\/h2>\n
Security and Territorial Disputes<\/h2>\n