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A year of rapidly slumping poll results for the Liberal Party that has governed Canada for nearly a decade was bad enough. But then there came the almost unthinkable: a defeat in a special election in downtown Toronto, the party\u2019s longtime electoral fortress.<\/p>\n
The defeat last year, many analysts believe, triggered the chain of events that led to Justin Trudeau\u2019s resignation as prime minister and the federal election that will be held on Monday.<\/p>\n
Voters in Toronto had been vital to keeping Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals in power through three elections. So the loss of a Toronto district \u2014 held by a prominent Liberal for 28 years \u2014 to the Conservatives was a stunning blow and an omen of worse to come in a general election.<\/p>\n
Now, with all 343 seats in the House of Commons to be filled in the general election, the 56 at stake in the loosely-defined Greater Toronto Area will likely determine who will steer Canada through a trade battle with the United States that could deal a devastating economic blow.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The Conservatives had been making inroads in the crucial Toronto area, with about 7 million people, before President Trump upended the electoral landscape by imposing tariffs on Canada.<\/p>\n
The two leading contenders to become the country\u2019s next leader<\/a> are Prime Minister Mark Carney of the Liberals and Pierre Poilievre of the Conservatives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While the two dozen seats in Toronto have not been fertile ground for the Conservatives, despite the special election result, voters in the 32 districts in the fast growing communities surrounding the city are not particularly attached to either major party and are up for grabs.<\/p>\n \u201cI wouldn\u2019t say ideologically they\u2019re overwhelmingly Conservative,\u201d said David Coletto, the head of Abacus Data, a polling firm. \u201cBut that more leftist-center, or left-wing activist core we see in downtown urban centers \u2014 that doesn\u2019t exist.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In the past, Mr. Coletto said, many voters outside Toronto helped Liberals win federal elections, but would vote for candidates from conservative parties in Ontario\u2019s provincial votes.<\/p>\n Underscoring the importance of the region to the overall result, Mr. Carney is expected to spend much of the final weekend of the campaign in the Greater Toronto Area.<\/p>\n Many ethnic communities, including some with a large number of recent immigrants, dominate some of the communities surrounding Toronto, from South Asians and Italians northwest of the city, to Chinese and other Asian communities to the northeast.<\/p>\n While immigrants cannot vote until they obtain citizenship, all major political parties have long concentrated on courting their communities.<\/p>\n A federal task force on intelligence and security threats to the election has said that India, China, Pakistan and Iran are likely targeting those communities with disinformation campaigns related to the election. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n This week it said had discovered that China is seeking to turn Chinese-speaking Canadians against a Toronto-area Conservative candidate who is a critic of the limits on democracy in Hong Kong.<\/p>\n Dennis Pilon, a political scientist at York University in Toronto, said that some leaders of those ethnic groups can be important political influences.<\/p>\n The cost of living is a top concern for voters in communities outside Toronto, Mr. Coletto said, adding that many residents live in those ares largely because they cannot afford homes<\/a> in the city or in nearby suburbs.<\/p>\n House prices in Toronto have risen by 44 percent since 2020.<\/p>\n Until the beginning of this year, that worked in favor of Mr. Poilievre, who regularly blamed Mr. Trudeau for inflation and rising house prices.<\/p>\n And many voters, Professor Pilon said, had simply tired of the Liberals after a decade in power and a sense that the country was headed in the wrong directly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Both parties have promised to help financially-strapped Canadians by providing tax breaks for some home buyers.<\/p>\n Mr. Coletto said that his polling shows the Liberal now lead by 15 percentage points in Toronto and by eight percentage points in the broader Greater Toronto Area.<\/p>\nThese voters who could go in any direction<\/h2>\n
Appealing to immigrant voters is important<\/h2>\n
The cost of living and house prices are concerns<\/h2>\n
Trump\u2019s tariffs, a new leader bring a reversal<\/h2>\n