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Since President Trump took office vowing to pull back U.S. support for Ukraine, European leaders have worried that they would be unable to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs.<\/p>\n
So far, it looks like they were right.<\/p>\n
The so-called coalition of the willing<\/a> of European nations backing Ukraine has struggled to get materiel to its battlefields in the time since Mr. Trump made clear that Europe needed to shoulder more<\/a> of the load for Ukraine\u2019s security and its own.<\/p>\n That is one reason Ukraine\u2019s Parliament overwhelmingly approved on Thursday a deal to give the United States a share of future revenue over natural resources, including minerals. While short of a security guarantee, it keeps open<\/a> the possibility of continued shipments of American arms and other military assistance.<\/p>\n \u201cThis gives us hope,\u201d said Yehor Chernev, the deputy chair of the Ukrainian parliament\u2019s committee on national security, defense and intelligence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n In an interview shortly after the vote, Mr. Chernev said Ukrainian forces were running low on long-range missiles, artillery and, above all, ballistic air-defense systems \u2014 the majority of which are manufactured in the United States, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n By summer, military aid approved under the Biden administration will run out, and Mr. Trump appears reluctant to renew it.<\/p>\n \u201cHe told me that he needs more weapons, but he\u2019s been saying that for three years,\u201d Mr. Trump said after meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine last month in Rome. (The Trump administration has allowed Ukraine to buy some small-dollar arms directly from American manufacturers, but not with U.S. government assistance.)<\/p>\n Allies in Europe have collectively given about half of the estimated $130 billion in military support provided to Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022. The United States sent the rest.<\/p>\n On Friday, a congressional official said that the United States had approved Germany\u2019s transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air-defense missiles to Ukraine. The critically needed weapons are made in the United States and cannot be exported \u2014 even if another country owns them \u2014 without American government approval.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While European leaders and investors<\/a> appear willing to pump more money into weapons production, industry executives and experts predict it will take a decade to get assembly lines up to speed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cEurope is trying to replace the assistance that we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they don\u2019t have the capacity to do this,\u201d Mr. Chernev said. \u201cIt takes time between the decision and the real assistance.\u201d<\/p>\n Though Mr. Trump has shown more alignment with Ukraine in recent days, including on Thursday threatening sanctions<\/a> on Russia if it declined to agree to an extended cease-fire, his broader dismissiveness toward 80 years of U.S. protections for Europe has prompted allied nations there to rethink their security.<\/p>\n Allies fear that Mr. Trump will pull Russian deterrents, like U.S. troops and the American nuclear umbrella<\/a>, out of Europe. Focusing on their own protection eats into what other European countries might have given to Ukraine.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cThey are hitting the dual problem of having to rearm themselves and supply Ukraine, and industrial capacity isn\u2019t big enough to do both,\u201d said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group affiliated with the British military.<\/p>\n He said Europe could backfill most of what the United States had provided in weapons to Ukraine, \u201cin the medium- to long-term, if it has the will, and I\u2019m not sure it has the will.\u201d<\/p>\n And for now? \u201cNo. Not in the short term,\u201d Mr. Savill said.<\/p>\n The weapons<\/a> are not just a matter of life and death for Ukraine\u2019s soldiers. Without adequate supplies, Ukraine could lose territory if it is forced to retreat. The cease-fire agreement that Mr. Trump is trying to broker would freeze the conflict in place. That would let Russia keep whatever ground it has captured in the meantime.<\/p>\n To be sure, the flow of weapons to Ukraine from Europe will continue even if American deliveries dry up. Germany recently sent Ukraine more than 60 mine-resistant armored vehicles, about 50,000 artillery rounds and air-defense ammunition, including an IRIS-T interceptor that can take down cruise missiles. Some drones that Britain and Norway bought, announced last month as part of a $600 million security package, have since arrived in Ukraine. Estonia is sending 10,000 artillery shells.<\/p>\n But many of the European military assistance pledged last month at NATO headquarters amounted to commitments for producing or procuring weapons in the years to come, not immediately. Ukraine may need American weapons for some time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Some of Europe\u2019s financial support will help Ukraine\u2019s defense industry. Mr. Chernev said that about 800 companies in Ukraine produce weapons. He estimated that Ukraine could produce $35 billion worth of weapons in coming years, but that it needed at least $14 billion invested from allies to get there. On Saturday, Denmark announced<\/a> that it would send about $930 million in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine\u2019s defense industry on behalf of a European Union fund.<\/p>\n Already, Ukraine is churning out millions of drones each year, including cheap kamikazes to save its supply of artillery shells, Mr. Savill said. Similarly, a Western intelligence official who closely monitors the war said Ukraine\u2019s forces have gotten better at rationing its Patriot air-defense missiles, by using less costly interceptors to take out smaller threats.<\/p>\n \u201cThey would like more cruise missiles and more ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons,\u201d Mr. Savill said, \u201cbut for the time being, they\u2019re going to have to fill the gap.\u201d<\/p>\n Edward Wong contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n