Lebanon.<\/a><\/p>\nSecondly, external deterrence by Israel – asserting that Hezbollah is held back by Israeli military pressure and the consequences of past confrontations.<\/p>\n
However, Beeri found both arguments insufficient: \u201cThe internal aspect certainly exists,\u201d he conceded. \u201cBut in our understanding, the argument that leans on this overestimates its influence on Hezbollah\u2019s status and decision-making. There is a wide gap between the current narrative of Hezbollah\u2019s alleged weakness and the actual situation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Support from within<\/h3>\n Hezbollah\u2019s civilian support structure \u2014 referred to as the Resistance Society \u2014 remains intact, Beeri explains. The group\u2019s Shi\u2019ite base, described as a \u201ccaptive audience,\u201d continues to benefit from a robust infrastructure operated by Hezbollah\u2019s Executive Council, functioning in parallel to the deteriorating Lebanese state.<\/p>\n
Beeri acknowledged: \u201cThere are quite a few financial difficulties in supporting civilian reconstruction,\u201d but insisted the infrastructure still operates.<\/p>\n
\u201cHezbollah can only be meaningfully affected by pressure from its Shi\u2019ite base. Is that pressure currently significant? The answer is no, mainly because of the \u2018captive audience\u2019 principle.\u201d<\/p>\n
He warned against misreading the group\u2019s current stance: \u201cThe claim that Hezbollah is deterred creates a dangerous illusion and takes us back to the days before October 7, 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hezbollah\u2019s ideology remains unchanged<\/h3>\n To reinforce his argument, Beeri cited Ibrahim Al-Amin, editor-in-chief of Al-Akhbar<\/em>, Hezbollah\u2019s main media outlet. A week before the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, Al-Amin wrote: \u201cThe current round [Hezbollah\u2019s fighting against Israel that began on October 8, 2023] is just another phase in the war against Israel, which must be destroyed. Hezbollah will work to rebuild its capabilities and regain strength\u2026\u201d<\/p>\nBeeri explained: \u201cThere is no peace. There are no compromises. There is only one ideology \u2014 endless armed resistance. Hezbollah\u2019s core \u2014 armed resistance \u2014 is not a means but an identity. Hezbollah is here to stay.\u201d<\/p>\n
He continued: \u201cThe word \u2018deterred\u2019 doesn\u2019t exist in the vocabulary of an extremist ideological\u2013religious organization like Hezbollah (or Hamas). Decisions about launching military or terrorist operations are based on religious directives. Any relevant interest (in this case, rehabilitation) is only a supporting factor in the decision-making process.\u201d<\/p>\n
Waiting on a directive<\/h3>\n According to Beeri, \u201cNo religious directive was issued to Hezbollah to join Iran in the war against Israel. While there were reportedly Iranian pressures on Hezbollah at the operational\u2013military level, the religious directive never came. It did not come from the Wilayat al-Faqih \u2014 that is, neither Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader nor Hezbollah\u2019s current leader issued such a command.\u201d<\/p>\n
He argued that Hezbollah\u2019s need to rebuild \u2014 especially militarily \u2014 reinforced its choice to avoid escalation:<\/p>\n
\u201cHezbollah needs time. Hezbollah needs \u2018reconstruction quiet.\u2019 Therefore, its interest was to avoid a major escalation with Israel that could severely undermine its rebuilding efforts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hezbollah, Beeri noted, has factored the Israeli strategy of \u201cmowing the grass\u201d into its current risk calculus:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe current state of Israeli \u2018mowing the grass\u2019 is one that Hezbollah can absorb while still managing reasonable reconstruction.\u201d<\/p>\n
Looking ahead<\/h3>\n \u201cWe don\u2019t know why the religious directive didn\u2019t come or whether it was even considered. But if it had come, Hezbollah would have joined the war alongside Iran. In that case, the popular claims of internal Lebanese pressure or deterrence would have collapsed.\u201d<\/p>\n
In conclusion, Beeri stressed that Israel has inflicted significant damage to Hezbollah\u2019s military capabilities \u2014 but not destroyed them. Despite mounting challenges, which could worsen in the post-Iran war period, Hezbollah\u2019s efforts to rebuild and rearm are well underway.<\/p>\n
He suggested existing resources may now be directed more toward military restoration, even at the expense of civilian services to its base, which remains a \u201ccaptive audience.\u201d<\/p>\n
Beeri concluded, \u201cHezbollah\u2019s various units are rebuilding and adjusting their operational plans, \u2018rerouting,\u2019 restoring capabilities and even preparing infrastructure for terrorist activity against Israel \u2014 both within Lebanon and beyond. In our assessment, Hezbollah\u2019s relevant units are capable of launching operations against Israel at any given moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven the command \u2014 the religious directive \u2014 Hezbollah could have joined the war alongside Iran, both in terms of arsenal redundancy and operational\u2013military capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Expert Tal Beeri discussed how it is unknown why the religious directive had not been given, but if it were, Hezbollah wouldRead More ›<\/a><\/button><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50565,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/jerusalem_post_articles_818\/0ed103a2c971d609cc17736f057bf719","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50564"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50564\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50565"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}