{"id":51877,"date":"2025-08-23T00:27:54","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T04:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/world\/china-india-watch-as-myanmar-rebels-advance-on-strategic-western-frontier\/23\/08\/2025\/"},"modified":"2025-08-23T00:27:54","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T04:27:54","slug":"china-india-watch-as-myanmar-rebels-advance-on-strategic-western-frontier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/world\/china-india-watch-as-myanmar-rebels-advance-on-strategic-western-frontier\/23\/08\/2025\/","title":{"rendered":"China, India watch as Myanmar rebels advance on strategic western frontier"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n<\/p>\n<div data-article-body=\"true\">\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Rakhine State stands at a pivotal moment as the <span>Arakan Army (AA) edges closer<\/span> to seizing control of Myanmar\u2019s strategic western frontier region, a shift in power that could redefine both the country\u2019s civil war and regional geopolitics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">While Myanmar\u2019s military government has clawed back territory elsewhere in the country, the AA now controls 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine, which is situated on the Bay of Bengal in the country\u2019s west and shares a border with Bangladesh.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Flush from victories against Myanmar\u2019s military rulers, the rebel group has pledged to capture the remainder of Rakhine State, including the capital Sittwe, as well as a key Indian port project, and Kyaukphyu, home to oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port central to China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Analysts say the window is open for a decisive offensive by the rebel group.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">But the AA\u2019s fight against Myanmar\u2019s military government for self-determination unfolds amid a deepening humanitarian crisis and growing <span>reports of serious abuses<\/span> by the armed group against Muslim-majority Rohingya in Rakhine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The Myanmar military\u2019s blockade of supplies to Rakhine \u2013 historically known as Arakan \u2013 has worsened a crisis in which the United Nations estimates more than two million people face the risk of starvation. Earlier this month, the World Food Programme warned that 57 percent of families in central Rakhine cannot meet basic food needs \u2013 up from 33 percent in December.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Thousands of civilians are hemmed in the encircled Sittwe, which is now accessible only by sea and air.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Residents describe skyrocketing prices \u2013 pork that once cost $2 now exceeds $13. Local media have reported on desperate people taking their own lives, families turning to begging, sex work increasing, and daytime thefts as law and order collapses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">One resident who recently left by plane told of the growing danger from crime in Sittwe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cThey\u2019re like gangsters breaking into homes in broad daylight. They even take the furniture,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Inside Sittwe, a source who asked for anonymity told Al Jazeera that the Arakan Liberation Army, an armed group linked to the military, monitors conversations among local people while troops raid homes and check residents for tattoos as signs of AA support.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cThe situation is unpredictable,\u201d the source said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cWe can\u2019t guess what will happen next.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><button aria-label=\"View larger image\" class=\"group absolute bottom-3 right-3 size-10 md:size-[50px] lg:inset-0 lg:size-full lg:bg-transparent\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\"><span class=\"absolute bottom-0 right-0 rounded-full bg-white p-3 opacity-100 shadow-elevation-3 transition-opacity duration-300 group-hover:block group-hover:opacity-100 md:p-[17px] lg:bottom-6 lg:right-6 lg:bg-white\/90 lg:p-5 lg:opacity-0 lg:shadow-none\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 22\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"size-4 lg:size-6\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\"><path d=\"M12.372.92c0-.506.41-.916.915-.916L21 0l-.004 7.712a.917.917 0 0 1-1.832 0V3.183l-6.827 6.828-1.349-1.348 6.828-6.828h-4.529a.915.915 0 0 1-.915-.915M1.835 17.816l6.828-6.828 1.349 1.349-6.829 6.827h4.529a.915.915 0 0 1 0 1.831L0 21l.004-7.713a.916.916 0 0 1 1.831 0z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/button><dialog aria-label=\"Modal Dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" class=\"fixed inset-0 z-4 size-full max-h-none max-w-none bg-white hidden\"\/><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<p>Rakhine State, Myanmar map<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">A representative of the United League of Arakan (ULA), the AA\u2019s political wing, described Sittwe as \u201ca stark example\u201d of military rule, saying the regime\u2019s leaders have \u201ctreated Arakan as occupied territory\u201d for decades.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-4 text-xl font-bold md:text-2xl\">Rising civilian toll<\/h2>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">As the AA advances across Rakhine State, the military government has turned to air strikes \u2013 a tactic used nationwide since the generals seized power in 2021.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">In Rakhine, the ULA says air raids killed 402 civilians between late 2023 and mid-2025, including 96 children. Another 26 civilians died this year from artillery, landmines or extrajudicial killings, it said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Air strikes on civilians \u201ccannot produce tangible military outcomes\u201d, a ULA representative said, describing such tactics as \u201cterrorism\u201d in a country where more than 80,000 people are estimated to have been killed in fighting since the 2021 coup.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Amid the grinding conflict, both the AA and Myanmar\u2019s military have also implemented conscription to bolster their forces.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The AA has drafted men aged 18 to 45 and women aged 18 to 25 since May, calling its campaign a \u201cwar of national liberation\u201d, while the military has added an estimated 70,000 men to its ranks over its 16-month military draft drive.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Rakhine has also been scarred by ethnic violence, most brutally during the military\u2019s 2017 crackdown that drove more than 730,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh \u2013 atrocities from that time which are now before the International Court of Justice in a case of suspected genocide.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">More than <span>a million Rohingya remain in refugee camps<\/span> along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, with the UN reporting 150,000 new arrivals over the past 18 months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Reports accuse the AA of abuses against Rohingya civilians that remain in Rakhine, including an <span>alleged massacre<\/span> of 600 people last year \u2013 allegations the AA denies, claiming images of human remains were actually government soldiers killed in battle.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">According to the rebels\u2019 political wing, the ULA, \u201cMuslim residents\u201d in its areas of control in Rakhine \u201care experiencing better lives compared to any other period in recent history\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The ULA, like the military government, avoids the term \u201cRohingya\u201d in an attempt to imply the community is not indigenous to Rakhine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">To further confuse an already complex situation, the military has armed members of the Rohingya community to fight the AA, a dramatic reversal after decades of persecution of their communities by Myanmar\u2019s armed forces.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank also warns that Rohingya armed groups are using religious language to mobilise refugees in the camps in Bangladesh against the AA.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">But \u201ca Rohingya insurgency against the Arakan Army is unlikely to succeed\u201d, the ICG reports, adding that it could also heighten anti-Rohingya sentiment in Myanmar and damage prospects for the repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh to homes they fled inside Rakhine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Tensions are also simmering with Bangladesh, which wants the AA \u2013 in control of the entire border region between Myanmar and Bangladesh \u2013 to accept refugees back into areas under its authority.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Dhaka is also reportedly backing armed Rohingya groups to pressure Arakan forces, while the AA is wary that Bangladesh could support a breakaway zone in Rakhine, threatening its territorial ambitions for the state.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-4 text-xl font-bold md:text-2xl\">Battle for Chinese-built port<\/h2>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">South of Sittwe, a decisive fight looms for Kyaukphyu, the coastal hub linking Myanmar to China\u2019s Yunnan province through twin oil and gas pipelines and a deep-sea port that is part of <span>China\u2019s Belt and Road infrastructure project.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst with defence publication Janes, predicts the AA could launch a monsoon offensive between September and October, using cloudy skies as cover against aerial assaults by the military\u2019s warplanes and which would boost its chances of capturing Kyaukphyu.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Davis said munition stocks seized by the AA in 2024 could dwindle by 2026, while Chinese pressure may limit arms supplies used by the rebels from entering northern Myanmar \u2013 factors that add urgency to the AA pressing its attacks now.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">He estimated 3,000 government troops are defending Kyaukphyu, backed by jets, drones and naval firepower.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">With at least 40,000 fighters after its conscription drive \u2013 and now becoming Myanmar\u2019s largest ethnic army \u2013 the AA could likely commit 10,000 troops to the assault on Kyaukphyu, Davis said.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><img alt=\"This photo taken from a boat on October 2, 2019 shows vessels docked at a port of a Chinese-owned oil refinery plant on Made Island off Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State. Myanmar has declared Rakhine state -- associated by many worldwide with the military's 2017 crackdown on Rohingya Muslims -- open for business. Beijing is now poised to cement its grip on the area with the deep-sea port, signed off in November 2018, and a colossal Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of garment and food processing factories. (Photo by Ye Aung THU \/ AFP) \/ TO GO WITH MYANMAR-CHINA-ECONOMY, FEATURE BY RICHARD SARGENT AND SU MYAT MON\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"770\" height=\"513\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"rounded-lg\" style=\"color:transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/W041XWbw3zktAVATAeSlMw--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MDtjZj13ZWJw\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/al_jazeera_289\/9196a31f74614381a003ab26f2772bdc\"\/><button aria-label=\"View larger image\" class=\"group absolute bottom-3 right-3 size-10 md:size-[50px] lg:inset-0 lg:size-full lg:bg-transparent\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\"><span class=\"absolute bottom-0 right-0 rounded-full bg-white p-3 opacity-100 shadow-elevation-3 transition-opacity duration-300 group-hover:block group-hover:opacity-100 md:p-[17px] lg:bottom-6 lg:right-6 lg:bg-white\/90 lg:p-5 lg:opacity-0 lg:shadow-none\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 22 22\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"size-4 lg:size-6\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\"><path d=\"M12.372.92c0-.506.41-.916.915-.916L21 0l-.004 7.712a.917.917 0 0 1-1.832 0V3.183l-6.827 6.828-1.349-1.348 6.828-6.828h-4.529a.915.915 0 0 1-.915-.915M1.835 17.816l6.828-6.828 1.349 1.349-6.829 6.827h4.529a.915.915 0 0 1 0 1.831L0 21l.004-7.713a.916.916 0 0 1 1.831 0z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/button><dialog aria-label=\"Modal Dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" class=\"fixed inset-0 z-4 size-full max-h-none max-w-none bg-white hidden\"\/><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<p>This photo taken from a boat on October 2, 2019, shows vessels docked at the port of a Chinese-owned oil refinery plant on Made Island off Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State, Myanmar [Ye Aung Thu\/AFP]<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Based on its track record, Davis believes the AA has a \u201csignificant chance\u201d of seizing the port, in what could become \u201cone of the most consequential and costliest campaigns\u201d of the civil war.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">About 50 Chinese security personnel remain in Kyaukphyu, according to a Chinese industry source cited by Davis, who believes Beijing has accepted the AA might capture the facility \u2013 as long as its assets stay protected.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">But Beijing has also intensified its backing of Myanmar\u2019s military rulers in recent months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The ULA representative said Kyaukphyu is a \u201csensitive area\u201d for the AA, where it uses \u201cthe least amount of force necessary\u201d and maintains a \u201cfirm policy of protecting foreign investments and personnel from all countries\u201d.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The AA would \u201cstrive to pursue all possible means to foster positive relations with China\u201d, the representative added.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"mb-4 text-xl font-bold md:text-2xl\">Widening War<\/h2>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">India, too, has stakes in Rakhine through the Kaladan transport project, which aims to connect India\u2019s remote northeast regions to the Bay of Bengal via the India-built Sittwe port and river routes running through AA-controlled territory.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">That corridor would allow India to bypass Bangladesh and create an alternative trade route for India with Myanmar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Analysts say taking control of the port, road and river network could allow the AA to tax Indian trade, boosting its finances while also undermining the Myanmar military\u2019s ties with New Delhi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">If the AA does succeed in capturing Rakhine\u2019s coastal ports, the armed group could feasibly control transport and trade gateways vital to both China and India,\u00a0which would create leverage that no other armed participant in the Myanmar civil war holds.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">That could elevate the AA-backed Arakan People\u2019s Revolutionary Government as a regional powerbroker, Davis said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">The Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar says the AA is also deployed beyond Rakhine and now leads the country\u2019s most extensive alliance of armed groups.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cNo other ethnic armed group has woven such a far-reaching web of influence among the country\u2019s next generation of fighters,\u201d the institute wrote.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">But with the military regaining lost ground in other regions of the country while preparing to hold elections in December \u2013 already widely dismissed as a sham \u2013 there is a prospect the AA could one day agree to a ceasefire with the military government or continue to fight and potentially be strong enough to face the military alone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Commenting on such a scenario, the ULA representative called for vigilance against the military\u2019s traditional \u201cdivide and rule\u201d strategy.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">\u201cWar often involves advances and retreats,\u201d said the representative. \u201cThis time, we are confident that the resistance forces can achieve meaningful change in the country.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/articles\/china-india-watch-myanmar-rebels-030142200.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rakhine State stands at a pivotal moment as the Arakan Army (AA) edges closer to seizing control of Myanmar&rsquo;s strategic western frontier<br \/><button class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/world\/china-india-watch-as-myanmar-rebels-advance-on-strategic-western-frontier\/23\/08\/2025\/\">Read More 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