\nMohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), speaks at the opening of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference at the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, September 15, 2025. (credit: REUTERS\/LISA LEUTNER)<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
On September 24, a Houthi drone struck Eilat, injuring about 20 people; Israel hit targets in Sanaa in response. The exchange shows how Gaza-linked tensions stretch from the Red Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean and how peripheral fronts can spike precisely as the snapback clock runs down.<\/p>\n
Mohammad Alzghool, senior researcher and head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi, said, \u201cThe most likely scenario is that the European parties will move ahead with the snapback mechanism.\u201d He argued that such a move would mean \u201cthe collapse of the nuclear deal as the overarching framework\u201d and could \u201copen the political landscape to escalation scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added a warning on the economy, stating, \u201cThe impact goes far beyond psychology\u2014it risks pushing the economy toward collapse.\u201d Alzghool said plausible cases include oil exports falling to about 700,000 barrels per day, worsening the fiscal deficit and weighing on growth, even if Tehran keeps some crude moving via discounting or gray-market channels.<\/p>\n
Looking to diplomacy, Alzghool said, \u201cThe nuclear issue is no longer forcing the international community into immediate talks with Tehran.\u201d He also predicted, \u201cRather than negotiating on the basis of an established framework, the international community may push Iran into comprehensive talks from scratch, without legal reference points.\u201d<\/p>\n
In his view, the dynamics since June reduced Iran\u2019s leverage and increased the likelihood that any future process would demand deeper transparency on stockpiles and missiles.<\/p>\n
From the UN General Assembly this week, Pezeshkian tied Iran\u2019s posture to Gaza while reiterating that Tehran does not seek nuclear weapons. European capitals countered that verifiable steps\u2014restored inspector access, clarity on stockpiles, and credible de-escalation\u2014are the only way to halt snapback in the closing hours of the 30-day window.<\/p>\n
Daniele Garofalo, an expert on terrorism and armed Islamist insurgent groups in the Middle East, said European debates often miscast the Houthis, noting, \u201cThey are not Yemen and not the internationally recognized government.\u201d He added that the movement has leveraged the Palestinian cause to frame itself as a national defender while continuing to benefit from Iranian support, even as some of Tehran\u2019s other partners have lost capacity. \u201cIt\u2019s absurd that in 2025 I still have to explain that Yemen\u2014the Yemeni government and the Yemeni army\u2014is someone else,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
On staying power, Garofalo pointed to a durable force structure\u2014military, political, organizational, and governmental\u2014that leaves the group, \u201cIn short, \u2026 not an actor that can be easily removed right now.\u201d He said popular support in Shiite areas persists, and he described how identity politics and wartime mobilization sustain the movement even when battlefield costs rise.<\/p>\n
Iranian financing network<\/h3>\n Garofalo also described work-arounds that offset reduced direct Iranian financing, saying, \u201cEven if direct Iranian financing has been interrupted\u2014because of obvious difficulties\u2014the Houthis have found alternative ways over the past year to sustain their military logistics.\u201d He cited intelligence reporting of \u201ccollaboration with al-Shabab, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and Somali piracy\u201d in exchanges that sustain logistics, despite public denials. \u201cAQAP denies this, but it is evident the two groups have avoided attacking each other for several years,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cThey steer clear of clashes also because, as a reminder, al-Qaida\u2019s leader Saif al-Adel is still in Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
On proposed partition scenarios, he cautioned that plans often ignore the Southern Transitional Council (STC), United Arab Emirates patronage, and AQAP\u2019s persistence, saying, \u201cRemoving them would require substantial military commitment, which no one appears willing to make right now.\u201d He warned that installing a northern authority could \u201cinstall an enemy government closely aligned with Iran\u201d and \u201csolve one problem and create another.\u201d \u201cSecond, are we sure the STC, funded as we know by the Emirates, would accept this?\u201d he asked, noting that over the past year and a half, the STC cooperated with the internationally recognized government against al-Qaida and the Houthis while repeatedly voicing political, military, and economic discomfort under that arrangement.<\/p>\n
If snapback proceeds, Alzghool outlined diverging paths. He said, \u201cTurning east toward China and Russia appears increasingly attractive for Iran,\u201d including interest in Eastern weapons systems, and hard-liners could push to accelerate a pursuit of nuclear weapons\u2014a course some argue would restore deterrence with even a small arsenal.<\/p>\n
He also offered a contrasting path: \u201cOn the other hand, Iran could still pivot toward regional and international integration,\u201d which would require scaling back sensitive nuclear activities, reducing militia networks, and tapping the growing influence of moderates in government and in the Supreme National Security Council.<\/p>\n
Over the next news cycle, the UN track will determine whether sanctions snap back and pressure intensifies\u2014or whether a narrow diplomatic lane remains. Either way, Tehran\u2019s near-term calculus rests on three facts: a sizable 60%-enriched uranium stockpile with inspector-access demands, a missile program rebuilding under constraints, and continued Houthi operations that keep the region on edge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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