\n<\/p>\n
Army generals in Guinea-Bissau seized power<\/a> on Nov. 26, 2025 \u2013 the eve of a scheduled official declaration of the winner in the West African nation\u2019s presidential election.<\/p>\n Alleging a destabilization plot by unnamed politicians and drug lords, the military suspended the electoral process and blocked the results of a contest that both the now former president, Umaro Sissoco Embal\u00f3, and the opposition candidate had claimed victory<\/a> in.<\/p>\n General Horta Inta-a, the head of the presidential guard, was subsequently sworn in as \u201ctransitional\u201d leader<\/a> and Il\u00eddio Vieira T\u00e9<\/a>, a close Embal\u00f3 ally, was appointed prime minister. The timing of the development and Embal\u00f3\u2019s connection to the new government figures have led domestic opposition groups<\/a> and some West African political leaders<\/a> to claim the coup was staged to facilitate Embal\u00f3\u2019s continued rule by proxy.<\/p>\n Whatever the veracity of such claims, the events point to both a deepening regional crisis of democracy and the inability of Guinea-Bissau to escape its coup-prone history. Indeed, as a scholar who has compiled and updated<\/a> a dataset of coup types<\/a> and documented their history in Guinea-Bissau<\/a> since its independence from Portugal in 1974, I believe the country is caught in a classic coup trap<\/a> whereby poverty and coups d\u2019etat are mutually reinforcing.<\/p>\n The events in Guinea-Bissau reflect a so-called polycrisis for countries in and around the Sahel belt<\/a>, sandwiched between North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. This region has, since 2020, become the global epicenter of both terrorism<\/a> and coups \u2013 so much so that it is sometimes dubbed the Sahel \u201ccoup belt\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n The events in Guinea-Bissau, which is located just south of the Sahel region, represent the 11th successful coup in Africa since 2020 \u2013 and the second successful one in 2025 after the military takeover in Madagascar<\/a> in October following a wave of Gen Z protests<\/a>.<\/p>\n Indeed, nearly three-quarters of all coup attempts in the world since 2020 have taken place in West Africa or the Sahel. The region accounts for an even higher share of successful coups since 2020. This unprecedented cluster of coups comes in a region that accounts for less than 10% of both Africa\u2019s population <\/a> and the number of states in the world.<\/p>\n The Sahel region is responsible for around 75% of recent coups<\/p>\nThe Sahel coup belt keeps expanding<\/h2>\n