{"id":57218,"date":"2026-03-04T00:06:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T05:06:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/world\/israeli-and-lebanese-analysts-assess-a-war-with-no-clear-endgame\/04\/03\/2026\/"},"modified":"2026-03-04T00:06:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T05:06:30","slug":"israeli-and-lebanese-analysts-assess-a-war-with-no-clear-endgame","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/world\/israeli-and-lebanese-analysts-assess-a-war-with-no-clear-endgame\/04\/03\/2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Israeli and Lebanese analysts assess a war with no clear endgame"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Smoke rises after an Israeli strike on Beirut<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Across the border, two analysts describe a situation shaped not only by military maneuvers, but also by eroding trust, weak institutions, and a profound uncertainty about what comes next.<\/p>\n

As Israeli ground forces advance into southern Lebanon<\/a> and Hezbollah expands its fire across northern Israel, the conflict is unfolding in real time, with the past 36 hours bringing new uncertainty for civilians on both sides.<\/p>\n

Across the border, two analysts describe a situation shaped not only by military maneuvers, but also by eroding trust, weak institutions, and a profound uncertainty about what comes next.<\/p>\n

In Israel, Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of the Alma Center, framed the operation as a response to what she described as Hezbollah\u2019s escalation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don’t know where this is heading, but let’s just see what we had until now,\u201d she said. \u201cHezbollah started the war against us almost 48 hours ago, launching drones and rockets against various places in Israel,\u201d she told The Media Line<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Zehavi described the scope of the attacks as spanning multiple targets: \u201cThis means next to the border, it means in depth, into strategic sites in Israel, and it means against the communities over here in the north.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although most projectiles were intercepted, she acknowledged the impact: \u201cMost of the weapons that Hezbollah launched were intercepted, but not all of it, causing some damages in different places.\u201d<\/p>\n

Near the northern border, she said, residents have almost no margin for reaction. \u201cIt means that the Israelis that are living up north, especially those who are living next to the border, have only 15 seconds to get to the bomb shelter.\u201d<\/p>\n

Unlike in 2023, communities were not evacuated, a choice she attributed to Hezbollah\u2019s weakened posture. \u201cThe decision was not to evacuate the communities, as opposed to what happened in 2023 when we evacuated the communities next to the border. The reason is because Hezbollah is not at the same place as it used to be. It is much weaker.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even so, she acknowledged residual risks from Hezbollah\u2019s forces, including the Radwan Brigades<\/a>. \u201cThe Radwan Brigades are not at the same capability, the anti-tank missiles are not at the same capability, and yet there is understanding that if Hezbollah will decide to send squads here and there to reach to the border, some of them may cross.\u201d<\/p>\n

Asked about Israel\u2019s stated objective on the ground, Zehavi said the goal is to deepen the buffer beyond limited positions. \u201cIDF entered Lebanon in order to create a better buffer in not only the five hills that we are holding; five hills are not enough to create a buffer towards 20 communities that are located at the fence.\u201d<\/p>\n

She added: \u201cYou need much more presence of soldiers in those areas, and that way, you create a buffer that doesn\u2019t enable Hezbollah to come nearby, to go down south and to launch anti-tank missiles from the borderline against anybody who is living here in Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n

People uncertain in Lebanon over war<\/h3>\n

In Lebanon, the picture is defined by uncertainty, limited state capacity, and public questioning.<\/p>\n

From Beirut, Azzam, a Lebanese political analyst, said strikes were taking place in real time. \u201cOne minute before you called me, there was a bombing here,\u201d he told The Media Line<\/em>.<\/p>\n

He described doubts that have surfaced even within Hezbollah\u2019s base. \u201cSo, of course, there\u2019s a huge doubt about this step being done by Hezbollah, as in people are questioning themselves, why would you do this? It seems to be counterintuitive that they would win because of these acts. And therefore, there\u2019s lots of questioning even among the Shia about the Hezbollah move,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Waiting for clarity, he added, \u201cWe\u2019re just bracing ourselves to see what happens. Everything happened so fast.\u201d<\/p>\n

Linking Lebanon\u2019s trajectory to developments in Iran<\/a>, he said: \u201cI would assume that if Iran, if the regime in Iran actually falls, then Lebanon would be a detail and a footnote to whatever happens there. But if not, then we will have to wait and see how this unfolds in Lebanon. But I don\u2019t think it\u2019ll be easy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Civilian protection, Azzam suggested, looks very different on the two sides of the border.<\/p>\n

In Israel, residents have seconds to reach shelters. In Lebanon<\/a>, he said, there are none. \u201cNo, there are no bunkers at all and no ways to intercept any threats like other Arab countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, civilians navigate what they believe are safer areas. \u201cThere are areas where it\u2019s likely that there is some Hezbollah facilities or personnel. There are areas where it\u2019s highly unlikely they will strike. And therefore, you get safer areas,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Movement itself is uncertain. \u201cBut this also depends on, are people able to move? Do they have someplace else to stay? What if there\u2019s no place to sleep? What do they do then?\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, he said, warnings are inconsistent. \u201cIn some cases, the Israelis are sending warnings. But in others, especially in the case of assassinations, there are no warnings. And this also leads to the increase on the civilian toll,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Zehavi, for her part, said Israel is issuing warnings and urges civilians to avoid Hezbollah-linked sites, including in Dahiya, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut. \u201cActually, since the beginning, if I\u2019m going back 36 hours, Israel has been calling to Lebanese to stay away of any military infrastructure of Hezbollah and to stay away of any infrastructure of Hezbollah, including in Beirut.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the Lebanese will listen to us, I believe there will be hardly any collateral damage. The targets are not civilian targets. The targets are military targets of Hezbollah,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

Arguing that Hezbollah embeds within civilian infrastructure, she said: \u201cHezbollah is hiding its weapons and military infrastructures inside the homes\u2026 On our website, you can find the human shield map, which are more than 50 proofs for what was found in south Lebanon inside the houses, inside the cemeteries and the mosques.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have no business in attacking civilians. We don\u2019t get any benefit by attacking civilians,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

On Beirut\u2019s Dahiya district, Zehavi said: \u201cThe Lebanese living in the Dahiya [neighborhood] know exactly what Hezbollah is hiding there. They know that Hezbollah is hiding missiles in those places. They know that the Dahiya is used for the headquarters of Hezbollah.\u201d<\/p>\n

Azzam described a shift in targeting patterns compared to previous rounds. \u201cHowever, there is now more targeting of the civilian infrastructure of Hezbollah, of course. And this is big because this will largely impact \u2026 not how much Hezbollah is a threat to Israel, but how much Hezbollah is entrenched into the civilian infrastructure,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

He said strikes on service networks could weaken Hezbollah\u2019s societal grip. \u201cWith the targeting of the service provision facilities, what that means is that its very own influence within the society is being eroded as well.\u201d<\/p>\n

Politics, both analysts suggested, may be as decisive as firepower, especially in Lebanon\u2019s fractured internal landscape.<\/p>\n

Zehavi expressed frustration with Beirut. \u201cI am tired of empty promises of the Lebanese government. I want to see deeds and not just words,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Azzam described internal divisions. \u201cThere seems to be the beginning of a rift between what Shia are and what Hezbollah is,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added that there is debate over whether actions are driven by Hezbollah factions or by Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). \u201cThis is not clear yet, but it seems more and more likely that this is either a faction of Hezbollah or the IRGC maneuvering from here the attacks,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

On the risk of internal collapse, he acknowledged: \u201cYeah, definitely. The risk of civil war is present in case the Lebanese army decides to stop Hezbollah directly.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, he emphasized that the Lebanese army is unlikely to decisively shape outcomes. \u201cBut the army will act based on an already established regional balance of power. It will not be a maker of that regional balance of power.\u201d<\/p>\n

Placing the confrontation in broader regional terms, Zehavi linked it to Iran\u2019s ideology. \u201cThe radical Islamic Republic does not acknowledge our values of democracy, of freedom\u2026 We had to choose between a bad option to a bad option\u2026 Everybody is paying a high price, but if this attack would not happen, everybody would be paying a much higher price.\u201d<\/p>\n

She argued that dismantling Tehran\u2019s influence would benefit the wider West. \u201cgetting rid of the Islamic Republic regime is doing a favor to all the Western world\u2026 For sure, it is still uncertain whether the Iranians can start an inner revolution soon without weapons, but we have to hope they may manage through our help,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

By contrast, Azzam urged caution about expectations of liberation. \u201cI don\u2019t think that the horizon for freedom is clear yet. Perhaps the horizon for the removal of the Islamic Republic is clearer and clearer, but freedom is a different thing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cFreedom is a big word that I would avoid using, especially given that the day after is so unclear at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Describing the mood on the ground in Beirut, Azzam said: \u201cDo you know in movies when someone has been slapped and therefore, they can\u2019t really stand straight, and they don\u2019t know what\u2019s happening? That\u2019s the atmosphere now. What\u2019s happening? We have no idea. It doesn\u2019t make sense. We just ended this, now we\u2019re going to do it again.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Zehavi, the endgame involves regional alignment. \u201cThe quicker the Gulf countries will join this campaign in a public way\u2026 it will be helpful to finish this campaign as quickly as possible,\u201d she concluded.<\/p>\n

Azzam, meanwhile, said the endgame remains undefined. \u201cSo as a political analyst, I\u2019m waiting for the day after, because this game doesn\u2019t end now. And as the day after comes, you don\u2019t know what will happen, really,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n

Together, their accounts capture a shared reality of fear and uncertainty, even as they interpret the same escalation through different lenses: One side sees a chance to reshape the border\u2019s security equation; the other sees fragility, erosion, and the question of what survives when the current round ends.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Smoke rises after an Israeli strike on Beirut Across the border, two analysts describe a situation shaped not only by military maneuvers,