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(Bloomberg) — Oil may hit a record $200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.<\/p>\n
A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts including Vikas Dwivedi said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%. An alternative outlook, with probability of 60%, suggested the war may finish at the end of this month, they said.<\/p>\n
Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March, as the war between the US, Israel and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East. The conflict has seen Tehran oversee a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting flows of energy vital to the global economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,\u201d the analysts said in the March 27 report. \u201cThe timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brent was last near $108 a barrel on Friday, after touching a crisis-high of $119.50 earlier this month. The benchmark set a nominal peak of $147.50 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump pushed back a deadline for striking Iran\u2019s energy sites by 10 days, with the second pause to that threat stretching the timeline on potential attacks to April 6. Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to sail through the strait as a goodwill gesture, he said.<\/p>\n
The closure of the strait \u201chas sent both crude and refined-product prices soaring due to the magnitude of the disruption,\u201d the analysts said. In pre-conflict times, the waterway saw daily transits of about 15 million barrels of crude, as well as 5 million barrels of refined-products, they said.<\/p>\n
(Updates to add Trump\u2019s decision in penultimate paragraph.)<\/p>\n
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