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(The Center Square) \u2013 The United Nations\u2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change threw out one of its most extreme emissions scenarios last week, a major development in climate science that will likely echo across markets, federal and state government policy, and education.<\/p>\n
What is RCP 8.5?<\/p>\n
RCP 8.5 is the stuff of climate apocalypse nightmares. RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway, a future climate scenario Earth could face by the end of the century if no policies were adopted to address climate change.\u2018Concentration\u2019 refers to greenhouse gas concentrations in Earth\u2019s atmosphere, and the 8.5 refers to the amount of additional heat those gases would trap by 2100.<\/p>\n
RCP 8.5 became the highest-emission climate scenario widely used in both academic research and media coverage over the past decade. But last week, the panel determined that RCP 8.5 described a future that subsequent data has shown to be too implausible to remain a useful benchmark for climate projections.<\/p>\n
Why is the panel\u2019s decision-making headlined?<\/p>\n
The panel\u2019s decision was significant because of how influential RCP 8.5 has been, not only within the field of climate science, but within academia, the media, business and government. It became foundational in climate science education, shaped outward-facing climate communication and was sometimes utilized in localized climate-impact modeling.<\/p>\n
It influenced corporate climate-risk assessments used by insurance companies, banks and investment firms to evaluate long-term property and infrastructure risks, which can affect insurance costs and investment decisions. It also informed some taxpayer-funded climate planning and policy analysis at the federal level.<\/p>\n
Reactions to the IPCC\u2019s decision are varied<\/p>\n
Some scientists and policy analysts have welcomed the change and said RCP 8.5 was obviously an unreliable benchmark since its inception.<\/p>\n
Travis Fisher, director of energy and environmental policy studies at the Cato Institute, believes the warming scenario was based on \u201cimplausibly, absurdly ridiculous\u201d assumptions from the start.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat if we decide to dig up every ounce of coal on planet earth and burn it at the same time? Yeah, what if?\u201d Fisher said in an interview with The Center Square. \u201cThis world where we find every hydrocarbon on planet earth and burn it \u2014 that [was] the scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n
Others say the panel\u2019s retirement of RCP 8.5 is evidence that climate policy is working.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough often slow and incomplete, our efforts to tackle climate change have made a tangible difference,\u201d wrote<\/a> Andrew King, an associate professor in climate science at the University of Melbourne. \u201c[But] the job is far from done. Emissions are at record highs and global warming is speeding up.\u201d<\/p>\n