{"id":8607,"date":"2023-12-05T06:05:07","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T11:05:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/sport\/the-mvp-race-through-13-weeks-and-brock-purdys-growing-case-sandos-pick-six\/05\/12\/2023\/"},"modified":"2023-12-05T06:05:07","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T11:05:07","slug":"the-mvp-race-through-13-weeks-and-brock-purdys-growing-case-sandos-pick-six","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newssprinters.com\/index.php\/sport\/the-mvp-race-through-13-weeks-and-brock-purdys-growing-case-sandos-pick-six\/05\/12\/2023\/","title":{"rendered":"The MVP race through 13 weeks and Brock Purdy\u2019s growing case: Sando\u2019s Pick Six"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Cover 7<\/b><\/a>\u00a0| Monday<\/b>\u00a0A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football\u2019s biggest stories. Each Monday,\u00a0Mike Sando<\/a>\u00a0breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Football fans love a good MVP discussion. We are going to have one here after Brock Purdy<\/a>\u2019s San Francisco 49ers<\/a> ran the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles<\/a> off their own field on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Jalen Hurts<\/a>, Dak Prescott<\/a>, Lamar Jackson<\/a>, Patrick Mahomes<\/a> and Tua Tagovailoa<\/a> entered Week 13 as betting favorites to win the award. Purdy was next, followed by a big drop to Josh Allen<\/a> and C.J. Stroud<\/a> in the next tier.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s time to reassess not only the MVP race, but where Purdy fits into it after leading San Francisco to touchdown drives on six consecutive possessions against the Eagles \u2014 only the fifth time an offense has done that since at least 2000, per TruMedia.<\/p>\n

This edition of the Pick Six column strips away everything anyone has thought about Purdy<\/a> and his role in the 49ers\u2019 success, focusing instead on pure production. I\u2019ve pulled the relevant numbers for the past 10 MVP quarterbacks and will show exactly how the 2023 contenders stack up, with special attention on Purdy.<\/p>\n

\u2022<\/strong> MVP race: The case for Brock Purdy
\u2022<\/strong> Playoff race: Packers<\/a> & biggest swings
\u2022<\/strong> Looking toward the 2024 coach hiring cycle
\u2022<\/strong> Let\u2019s not overthink offensive declines
\u2022<\/strong> Putting a roof over Geno Smith<\/a>\u2019s head
\u2022<\/strong> Two-minute drill: LSU\u2019s Daniels over North Carolina\u2019s Maye<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

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\"go-deeper\"\/<\/div>\n
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GO DEEPER<\/p>\n

2024 NFL Draft order: Patriots move up to No. 2; how picks 1-32 stand after Week 13<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

1. Not long ago, we were discussing whether Brock Purdy was a legitimate starting quarterback. Now, we are asking whether he\u2019s a legitimate MVP candidate. The production says yes. So does the context.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Purdy finished the 49ers\u2019 42-19 victory against the Eagles with 314 yards and four touchdown passes. His receivers accounted for 212 yards after the catch, which plays into the thinking Purdy benefits from his receivers disproportionately. He does not on the whole.<\/p>\n

YAC accounts for 48.5 percent of Purdy\u2019s passing yards this season. The average is 47 percent for starting quarterbacks. The average was 48 percent for the past 10 MVP quarterbacks. Mahomes was at 54 percent during his 2022 MVP season.<\/p>\n

This sacks the YAC argument against Purdy.<\/p>\n

Researching where the past 10 MVP quarterbacks ranked in key categories within their award-winning seasons creates a profile we can apply to Purdy and the other betting favorites.<\/p>\n

The table below shows where those MVPs ranked in combined EPA on pass plays\/QB rushes, EPA per pass play and total touchdowns. Focusing on these metrics solves for volume and efficiency, while taking into account passing and rushing, with some acknowledgment of traditional stats (touchdowns are good).<\/p>\n

Nearly all the MVPs ranked near the top in all three categories. Cam Newton<\/a> was an exception because he started his MVP season slowly.<\/p>\n

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Where Last 10 MVPs Ranked<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
MVP Ranks<\/span><\/th>\nTOT EPA<\/span><\/th>\nEPA\/PP<\/span><\/th>\nTOT TD<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
\n

Patrick Mahomes (’22)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Aaron Rodgers (’21)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Aaron Rodgers (’20)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Lamar Jackson (’19)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Patrick Mahomes (’18)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Tom Brady (’17)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Matt Ryan (’16)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Cam Newton (’15)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Aaron Rodgers (’14)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Peyton Manning (’13)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Average<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1.6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1.8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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1.9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div><\/div>\n

Viewing 2023 MVP favorites entering Week 13 through the same lens shows Purdy at the top, with Prescott close behind. Josh Allen is third even though his Buffalo Bills<\/a> have a 6-6 record. Purdy and Prescott have no real blemishes. They are the most legitimate candidates. Purdy outproduced Prescott strikingly when the 49ers blew out the Cowboys<\/a> earlier in the season, but our production-focused approach doesn\u2019t take that into account.<\/p>\n

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Where Current MVP Favorites Rank<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Looking beyond production for greater context is part of the process. It also can distract.<\/p>\n

Purdy benefits from a differentiating play caller and multiple strong receivers. So did Joe Montana (1989, 1990), Steve Young (1992), Brett Favre (1995-97), Kurt Warner (1999, 2001), Tom Brady<\/a> (2007), Matt Ryan<\/a> (2016) and so many others. That is how MVP seasons come together.<\/p>\n

No one holds it against Montana or Favre that Mike Holmgren called offensive plays for all five of their MVP seasons. Should Kyle Shanahan\u2019s play calling disqualify Purdy?<\/p>\n

There is one final visual to consider. Pressing \u201creplay\u201d on the chart below reveals game-by-game EPA on pass plays and quarterback rushes for the 2023 MVP favorites. Toggling between \u201cscores\u201d and \u201cranks\u201d provides different perspectives on the same data.<\/p>\n

One of the lines represents average game-by-game EPA production for the past 10 MVP quarterbacks. Notice how closely Purdy\u2019s production tracks with theirs.<\/p>\n

Using averages for the past 10 MVP quarterbacks creates a line without the peaks and valleys those quarterbacks experienced individually. This line represents the gold standard for evaluating MVP quarterback production.<\/p>\n

Prescott has surged recently. Tagovailoa bounced back against Washington<\/a> on Sunday following a down stretch. Others vacillate week to week.<\/p>\n

Purdy\u2019s production tracks so closely with the 10 MVPs as to become almost indistinguishable in spots. No one knows what the future might hold. If the 49ers find themselves playing from behind and the offense melts down in those pure passing situations, we can revisit this conversation then. For now, it\u2019s clear we have reached the point where arguing for Purdy\u2019s MVP case is easier than arguing against it.<\/p>\n

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Never in a million years would I have thought that I\u2019d be cutting up snaps of Brock Purdy to use as teach tape for both pre- & post-snap processing and clean, efficient footwork in the same exact way I\u2019d done with Drew Brees before him. There are only a handful of ways QBs can go\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 Honest NFL (@TheHonestNFL) December 4, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

2. The Green Bay Packers\u2019 big victory against the Kansas City Chiefs<\/a> improved their playoff chances significantly. Here\u2019s how those chances changed for every team in Week 13.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Dramatic finishes in Week 13 altered the playoff landscape<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jimmie Ward<\/a>\u2019s interception for Houston<\/a> off Denver<\/a>\u2019s Russell Wilson<\/a> in the final minute secured a victory that upped the Texans\u2019 playoff chances from 50-50 to 70-30, while cutting the Broncos\u2019 chances in half to roughly 10 percent. That game produced the largest combined swing for a single game in Week 13.<\/p>\n

Using the model Austin Mock maintains for The Athletic<\/em>, I\u2019ve produced a table showing every team\u2019s playoff chances, and how those chances changed in Week 13.<\/p>\n

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Playoff Chance Swings in Week 13<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

The Packers\u2019 chances have improved from 15 percent to 25 percent to 53 percent to 67 percent during their three-game winning streak against the Los Angeles Chargers<\/a>, Detroit Lions<\/a> and Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers were underdogs in every game. They could be favored to win over the course of their remaining schedule, which features the New York Giants<\/a>, Tampa Bay Buccaneers<\/a>, Carolina Panthers<\/a>, Minnesota Vikings<\/a> and Chicago Bears<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love<\/a> now ranks 12th in EPA per pass play. The Packers\u2019 offense ranks 10th in EPA per play. Coach Matt LaFleur improved to 16-0 in December and can make it 20-0 if his Packers can beat the Giants, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings. It\u2019s a new day in Green Bay.<\/p>\n

3. The 2024 head coach hiring cycle is fast approaching, and with it the search for the next Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The favorite to win NFL<\/a> Coach of the Year was never a primary play caller before leading the Detroit Lions back from the dead into prime playoff positioning. Will Dan Campbell\u2019s success affect the 2024 hiring cycle? Will Campbell be a one-off? Are there enough offensive play callers to go around?<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper reportedly plans to target<\/a> an offensive-minded coach to replace the offensive-minded coach he just fired.<\/p>\n

Teams over the past five hiring cycles have chosen 23 coaches with backgrounds on offense, 11 with backgrounds on defense and one special-teams coach (Joe Judge).<\/p>\n

Deciding in advance you\u2019re only interested in candidates with a specific background reduces the probability a franchise will find the best candidate. That is notable for Tepper, who has spoken frequently about playing the probabilities.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe very model that the owners desire is probably the hardest one to achieve success with,\u201d an exec from a team with an established coach said. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to find the coach who can do it all well. Now, it gives you the best upside. Kyle Shanahan gives you the best upside, but it\u2019s the hardest one to make work because it is so hard to do.\u201d<\/p>\n

Owners fear losing a successful offensive play caller to head coaching jobs elsewhere, so they hire offensive-minded head coaches.<\/p>\n

But the most successful team-quarterback marriages over the past two decades featured coaches with backgrounds on defense and\/or special teams: Bill Belichick with Tom Brady in New England, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson in Seattle, John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco<\/a> in Baltimore, Mike Tomlin with Ben Roethlisberger<\/a> in Pittsburgh.<\/p>\n

These teams enjoyed far greater championship success than the teams that paired offensive-minded coaches with Aaron Rodgers<\/a>, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Why? Those coaches also were not play callers. They coached the full team and set the culture.<\/p>\n

Scoring is down. So many offenses are struggling. Top offensive assistants have already been hired away from Sean McVay\u2019s Los Angeles Rams<\/a>, Shanahan\u2019s 49ers and Nick Sirianni\u2019s Eagles.<\/p>\n

The search for the next elite offensive play-calling head coach will continue.<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stands out. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy should be in the mix. Perhaps the Cincinnati Bengals\u2019 Brian Callahan will get a chance. Houston\u2019s Bobby Slowik could draw interest after a strong initial season as a coordinator. Miami<\/a>\u2019s Frank Smith is finishing his second season with the Dolphins\u2019 Mike McDaniel.<\/p>\n

Some of the most successful veteran defensive coordinators generate almost no buzz.<\/p>\n

Steve Spagnuolo has won three Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator and has the Chiefs\u2019 defense playing its best football in years.<\/p>\n

Jim Schwartz, another former head coach with a Super Bowl pedigree as defensive coordinator, has had the Cleveland Browns\u2019 defense in the top five statistically.<\/p>\n

The Pittsburgh Steelers\u2019 defense under coordinator Teryl Austin recently allowed no more than 20 points in seven successive games, the team\u2019s longest streak within a season since 2004.<\/p>\n

Dan Quinn, Brian Flores, Raheem Morris, Ejiro Evero and Lou Anarumo are among the defensive coordinators who could get interviews.<\/p>\n

4. The past month has produced the four least-experienced weeks of starting quarterback play since at least 2000, which is interesting because \u2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n

With offensive production down over the past couple seasons, conversations around the subject have proliferated. Former GM Bill Polian suggested during our radio conversation Wednesday that officials are letting defensive backs play more aggressively, affecting production. ESPN analysts have suggested delayed pressures on defense are having an impact.<\/p>\n

Multiple explanations could be true, but nothing affects offense more than quarterbacks do. With so many young quarterbacks starting, teams have shifted even harder toward shotgun formations while simplifying their offenses. Both factors have made it tougher for teams to present a credible threat in the running game, and thus passing becomes more difficult.<\/p>\n

Teams that present a credible run threat through scheme, personnel or both have remained explosive in the passing game. Miami, San Francisco and Houston do this well. They rank 1-2-3, respectively in explosive pass gains this season. Yes, personnel matters, but these teams are scheming explosive gains partly because opponents must commit to defending their run schemes.<\/p>\n

That is my thinking, anyway.<\/p>\n