\n<\/p>\n
Hollywood\u2019s movie factories run on conventional wisdom \u2014 entrenched notions, based on experience, about what types of films are likely to pop at the global box office.<\/p>\n
This year, audiences turned many of those so-called rules on their heads.<\/p>\n
Superheroes have long been seen as the most reliable way to fill seats. But characters like Captain Marvel, the Flash, Ant-Man, Shazam and Blue Beetle failed to excite moviegoers. Over the weekend, \u201cAquaman and the Lost Kingdom,\u201d which cost more than $200 million to make and tens of millions more to market, arrived to a disastrous $28 million in ticket sales in the United States and Canada. Overseas moviegoers chipped in another $80 million.<\/p>\n
In the meantime, the biggest movie of the year at the box office, \u201cBarbie,\u201d with $1.44 billion in worldwide ticket sales, was directed by a woman<\/a>, based on a very female toy and spray-painted pink \u2014 ingredients that most studios have long seen as limiting audience appeal. An old movie-industry maxim holds that women will go to a \u201cguy\u201d movie but not vice versa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cThe Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/a>\u201d collected $1.36 billion, a second-place result that also stunned Hollywood; studios have a troubled history<\/a> with game adaptations. \u201cOppenheimer,\u201d a three-hour period drama about a physicist, rounded out the top three, taking in $952 million and contradicting the prevailing belief that, in the streaming era, films for grown-ups are not viable in theaters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cWithout question, change is afoot \u2014 audiences are in a different mood,\u201d said David A. Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter<\/a> on box office numbers. \u201cThe country and the world are not in the same place. We\u2019ve had seven years of divisive politics, a severe pandemic, two serious wars, climate change <\/strong>and inflation. Moviegoers seem less interested in being overwhelmed with spectacle and saving the universe than being spoken to, entertained and inspired.\u201d<\/p>\n The biggest box office surprises of the year fell into the \u201cspoken to\u201d category. \u201cSound of Freedom<\/a>,\u201d a crime drama that cost $15 million to make, catered to the far right, an audience largely ignored by Hollywood, and generated $248 million in ticket sales, on a par with \u201cThe Eras Tour,\u201d which targeted Taylor Swift fans and also cost about $15 million.<\/p>\n \u201cSound of Freedom\u201d came from Angel Studios, an independent company in Provo, Utah, that supported the film<\/a> with an unorthodox \u201cPay It Forward\u201d program, which let supporters buy tickets online for those who otherwise might not see it. In a big break from Hollywood norms<\/a>, Ms. Swift cut out the middle company (a studio) and made a distribution deal directly with AMC Entertainment, the world\u2019s largest theater operator.<\/p>\n \u201cOur phone has been dancing off the hooks since the day we announced the \u2018Eras Tour\u2019 project,\u201d Adam Aron, AMC\u2019s chief executive, told investors on a conference call in November, referring to \u201calternative content\u201d opportunities.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Comscore, which compiles box office data, projected on Sunday that North American ticket sales for the year would reach about $9 billion, a 20 percent increase from 2022. (Before the pandemic, North American theaters reliably sold about $11 billion in tickets annually.) The average price for an adult general admission ticket in the United States was $12.14, up from $11.75, according to EntTelligence, a research firm.<\/p>\n Worldwide ticket sales are expected to exceed $33 billion, an increase of 27 percent, partly because of a surge in Latin America. (Before the pandemic, worldwide ticket sales easily exceeded $40 billion annually.)<\/p>\n Hollywood\u2019s climb back from the pandemic is expected to stall in 2024. With fewer movies scheduled for release \u2014 studio pipelines were disrupted by the recent strikes<\/a> \u2014 ticket sales will decline 5 to 11 percent next year, depending on the market, according to projections from Gower Street Analytics, a box office research firm.<\/p>\n Reading box-office tea leaves is like pontificating about symbolism in works of fiction: Any halfway plausible theory works. But studio bosses need something, anything, to guide them as they make billion-dollar judgment calls for the seasons ahead.<\/p>\n Here are five takeaways from this year:<\/p>\n People reach for nostalgia in times of stress, and movies that reminded audiences of the past \u2014 while also managing to feel fresh \u2014 have been succeeding. \u201cBarbie,\u201d \u201cThe Super Mario Bros. Movie,\u201d \u201cThe Little Mermaid,\u201d \u201cWonka\u201d and the retro-feeling \u201cTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem\u201d allowed people to revisit their childhoods. \u201cInsidious: The Red Door\u201d hit pay dirt by bringing back the franchise\u2019s original stars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cIndiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny\u201d could have tapped into nostalgia to become a hit. Instead, a huffing and puffing Harrison Ford, 81, simply reminded Indy fans that they, too, are getting old. \u201cDial of Destiny\u201d cost Disney $295 million to make and took in a flaccid $384 million. (Theaters keep roughly 50 percent of ticket sales.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Sophisticated dramas with modest budgets and aimed at older audiences have been showing signs of life after two years in the box office I.C.U.<\/p>\n The streaming era has forever shifted the bulk of prestige film viewing<\/a> to the home, analysts say. But theaters found a modicum of success in 2023 with offerings like \u201cPast Lives<\/a>,\u201d a wistful drama with some Korean dialogue, and Hayao Miyazaki\u2019s animated \u201cThe Boy and the Heron.\u201d The bespoke \u201cAsteroid City\u201d managed $54 million.<\/p>\n Early box office results have also been promising for Oscar-oriented films like \u201cPoor Things<\/a>,\u201d a surreal science-fiction romance, and \u201cAmerican Fiction<\/a>,\u201d a satire about a writer who puts together a fake memoir that turns on racial stereotypes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n For the past decade, Hollywood has kept audiences interested in sequels by making each installment more bloated and often nonsensical than the last. Bigger! Faster! More!<\/p>\n That strategy may need rethinking \u2014 it\u2019s just too expensive, analysts say, especially with Chinese moviegoers souring on American blockbusters. \u201cFast X,\u201d the 10th movie in the \u201cFast and Furious\u201d series, cost an estimated $340 million and took in $705 million worldwide, including $140 million in China. By comparison, \u201cFurious 7\u201d in 2015 cost $190 million and collected $1.5 billion, including $391 million in China.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Tom Cruise\u2019s seventh \u201cMission: Impossible\u201d spectacle, released in July in the wake of \u201cBarbie\u201d and \u201cOppenheimer,\u201d cost roughly $290 million to make and collected $568 million, including $49 million in China. The sixth \u201cMission: Impossible\u201d in 2018 cost $178 million and generated $792 million, with Chinese ticket buyers chipping in $181 million.<\/p>\n Increasingly, franchise sequels and spinoffs need to feel fresh to succeed. Lionsgate, for instance, delved deeper into the High Table underground crime organization in \u201cJohn Wick: Chapter 4\u201d and introduced \u201cHunger Games\u201d fans to a new story line (and cast) in the prequel \u201cThe Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.\u201d Both movies were hits. Lionsgate even revived its \u201cSaw\u201d horror franchise by shifting the narrative back in time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cEach of those movies did something different than the prior,\u201d said Adam Fogelson, vice chair of the Lionsgate Motion Picture Group. \u201cIt wasn\u2019t just \u2018spend more, make it bigger, make it louder and cram in more action.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n Horror continued to be a reliable performer, with \u201cFive Nights at Freddy\u2019s<\/a>\u201d and \u201cM3gan<\/a>\u201d starting new franchises for Universal and its Blumhouse affiliate. Together, the two films cost $32 million. They collected a combined $469 million. Also notable was \u201cThe Nun II,\u201d which cost Warner Bros. about $22 million and took in $366 million.<\/p>\n Superheroes may be down, but they\u2019re not out. Marvel\u2019s rollicking, well-established \u201cGuardians of the Galaxy\u201d series returned for a third chapter and generated $846 million against a $250 million budget. Sony\u2019s bold, anime-influenced \u201cSpider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse<\/a>\u201d cost an estimated $150 million and collected $691 million.<\/p>\n The conventional wisdom in Hollywood has been that movie stars are essentially part of the past. A celebrity name above the title no longer carries that much weight with ticket buyers. The underlying \u201cintellectual property\u201d is what fills seats.<\/p>\n People pay to see Barbie, not Margot Robbie.<\/p>\n Except that Mattel and various studios tried for at least 20 years to turn the toy into a live-action movie star. It took Ms. Robbie in the role (and Ryan Gosling as Ken) to finally make it happen. Other movies that benefited from star power in 2023 included \u201cWonka,\u201d with Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, and \u201cCreed III,\u201d anchored by Michael B. Jordan.<\/p>\n Stars don\u2019t have heft? Try telling that to the producers of \u201cGran Turismo,\u201d \u201cHaunted Mansion,\u201d \u201cDumb Money<\/a>\u201d and \u201cStrays<\/a>,\u201d all of which disappointed at the box office and arrived when their casts were barred from promoting their work<\/a> because of the SAG-AFTRA strike.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\nMoviegoers want comfort.<\/h2>\n
Art film has a pulse.<\/h2>\n
Bigger is not better.<\/h2>\n
Some audience patterns remain intact.<\/h2>\n
Stars matter.<\/h2>\n