How Iran war is deepening food insecurity in parts of Africa

Four people died and dozens were injured in recent fuel protests in Kenya as prices rise amid conflict in the Middle East.

Kenyan police also arrested hundreds after transport sector workers including operators of shared taxis, digital ride-hailing services and transport companies demonstrated against soaring prices at the pump.

“Disrupting transport and destroying livelihoods will only worsen the situation facing Kenyans,” Kenyan Interior Minister Kipchumba Murkomen told Kenyans news website, seeking to calm the public.

But more protests may be expected in Kenya and beyond.

The war in Iran and the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route are driving up oil and petrol prices in many parts of the world.

In Africa, where average incomes are far lower than in Europe and large parts of the population already live in poverty, the impact is particularly severe..

The higher cost of food and imports of fertilizer from the Gulf region means food crises will worsen in many places that are already roiled by crises and conflict.

The situation is critical as many Kenyan farmers have planted their crops without using fertilizer, an emergency measure, says Welthungerhilfe, a non-governmental organization fighting hunger.

They may yet see crops fail.

“When maize reaches knee height about four to six weeks after planting, it requires large amounts of nitrogen,” says Miriam Wiemers, a policy advisor at Welthungerhilfe. “If additional fertilization does not occur by shoulder height after about eight to ten weeks, yield losses become irreversible.”

Many countries have not yet recovered from the impact of the pandemic and Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Now the Iran war threatens to significantly exacerbate the situation once again and is endangering livelihoods worldwide, but above all in Africa,” says Wiemers.

“We expect that the problems with fertiliser supplies will soon lead to crop failures and food inflation,” warns Wiemers.

“We are hearing from our project colleagues that, depending on the region, there are already much higher price rises locally, particularly where infrastructure is poor to begin with and where import or transport routes are very long.” She points to the Sahel region, where food has to be transported over long distances by land.

The United Nations Development Programme is warning that 30 million more people will be pushed into poverty.

Shipping costs are also rising and these costs are often passed on to consumers. Agra, an organization focused on sustainable agriculture and food security, noted even before the current war, shipping costs to East Africa were above the global average.

In April, it cost around $1.80 per kilometre to ship a container to East Africa, while the global average is $1. Industry observers say these costs could rise to $2.10 per kilometre if the higher fuel costs are passed on, Agra says.

Sudan, amid a bloody civil war raging for three years, is already mired in the world’s largest humanitarian crisis.

“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is further exacerbating the crisis in Sudan and contributing to higher prices for fuel, food and fertiliser,” says the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a food security monitor.

Even before the start of the war in Sudan, around 19.5 million people – two in five in Sudan – were affected by acute food insecurity, the IPC says. Now, 14 million people are in IPC Phase 3, meaning acute hunger.

More than 5 million are in IPC Phase 4, which indicates a humanitarian emergency, and around 135,000 people are in the final IPC Phase 5, meaning famine.

Sudan is just one example of looming famine crises. In Somalia and Congo, too, millions of people are in IPC Phase 4.

Aid organizations already struggling to operate in Sudan are also feeling the strain of rising food, petrol and diesel prices.

“We can clearly see that, with financial resources that have already been reduced, we are able to reach even fewer people whilst needs are rising,” says Wiemers from Welthungerhilfe.

The Sudan country office says the cost of humanitarian aid there is rising by 40% to 70%. Diesel prices reportedly rose by 133% between February and April – and the longer the Iran war lasts, the further prices could rise.

That comes as many aid groups have less money available since the withdrawal of the US Agency for International Development and further funding cuts.

With budgets remaining unchanged, estimates suggest aid measures in Sudan will reach between 25% and 40% fewer people.

All that makes further protests likely.

Earlier this year, the Sudanese Energy Ministry said petroleum stocks would cover domestic demand until April. But Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim told the Sudan Tribune that there would be “negative and harsh” consequences ahead.