Security officials say terror activity in the West Bank is at its lowest level since 2011, but warn of growing friction, weapons concerns and potential escalation ahead of the holidays.
Despite the fact that terror levels in the West Bank are very low, the lowest since 2011, security officials warned on Sunday that Hamas headquarters in Turkey, Gaza, Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, and other locations will likely attempt to advance terror plots targeting Israelis and IDF soldiers.
The low level of terror activity is attributed to combined operations by the Judea and Samaria Division, commanded by Brig.-Gen. Kobi Heller, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), Israel Police and Border Police.
Ahead of the holidays, the Judea and Samaria Division carried out extensive preventive operations, targeting not only suspects involved in terror activity but also incitement hubs, in an effort to minimize the potential for attacks in the area.
IDF expands preventive operations amid rising friction
According to security officials, “the IDF enjoys broad freedom of action in Judea and Samaria, especially after it captured the refugee camps in the West Bank, established a presence there, and built supporting infrastructure for rapid activity. In addition, outposts are being built that will strengthen the hold.”
Another development security officials view positively is the extensive scope of terror-prevention operations carried out on the ground and in the air. According to IDF data, five terrorists were eliminated by Israeli forces in various incidents over the past week.
(illustrative) Israeli Border Police forces from the Jerusalem Envelope unit uncover a tunnel that Palestinians allegedly attempted to dig beneath the separation barrier near the village of Al-Jib, West Bank, September 9, 2026. (credit: CHAIM GOLDBERG/FLASH90)
However, a source of concern is a new trend of increased friction on the ground. Security officials said the trend is growing, partly due to the significant increase in the number of new communities, with 84 added to the 180 existing communities in the West Bank, as well as the growth in the number of lone farms, which stands at around 140, and illegal outposts, of which there are more than 100.
This security reality requires the IDF to rethink its approach and update its security concept regarding communities and farms that have received state approval, so that they are not left at a disadvantage or facing a gap compared with hostile elements in the area.
Security officials warn of potential escalation scenarios
At the same time, the security establishment emphasizes that security coordination with the Palestinian security services has been maintained, alongside exceptional incidents that require constant monitoring and alertness. In addition, there is a large quantity of weapons held by the Palestinian Authority, alongside weapons smuggling across the Israel-Jordan border.
One extreme scenario being examined is the “turning of the guns” scenario, in which the Palestinian Authority enters a succession struggle over Mahmoud Abbas’s position and, during clashes, weapons are turned against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians. The political leadership has instructed officials to increase preparedness for such a possibility.
According to security sources, Defense Minister Israel Katz may pressure the IDF to capture additional refugee camps and carry out broader operations, with an emphasis on the West Bank, in order to reduce terror activity.