By Natalia Siniawski and Adriana Barrera
MEXICO CITY, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Mexico’s finance ministry projects economic growth of between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2027, while the broader public sector deficit is forecast to narrow to 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a draft budget proposal submitted to Congress on Tuesday.
• The budget document shows a 2026 growth estimate of 1.0% to 2.0%, down from an earlier projection of 1.8% to 2.8%.
• The public sector deficit compares to 4.1% of GDP projected for 2026.
• The 2027 outlook is driven primarily by solid domestic demand, higher household incomes, less restrictive financial conditions, and investment tied to infrastructure projects and tax incentives under the “Plan Mexico” initiative.
• Additional support is expected from export growth backed by North American trade integration.
• Total public debt, as measured by the Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (SHRFSP), is seen reaching 55.0% of GDP in 2027, compared with 54.0% estimated for year-end 2026.
• Headline inflation is projected to finish 2027 at 3.0%, in line with the Bank of Mexico’s official target.
• State oil firm Pemex is slated to receive 81.1 billion Mexican pesos ($4.80 billion) from the federal government to pay down debt in 2027, compared with 263.5 billion pesos in the prior budget. The government also earmarked 255.5 billion pesos for Pemex’s priority investment projects.
• The macroeconomic framework assumes Mexico’s crude export mix will average $61.80 per barrel in 2027, down from an estimated $78.40 per barrel in 2026.
• Total liquid hydrocarbon production is projected at 1.80 million barrels per day.($1 = 16.9062 Mexican pesos)
(Reporting by Adriana Barrera and Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Anthony Esposito)