Nigeria’s economic gains collide with a kidnapping boom

The Nigerian economy is on a hot streak. New data published on Monday showed a 4.4% year-over-year expansion in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.9% in the first. Oil production rose from 1.6 million to 1.7 million barrels per day, while fuel exports climbed amid higher prices and global demand fueled by the Iran war. But the non-oil economy, which accounts for the majority of Nigeria’s real GDP, also accelerated, led by services, agriculture, information and communication, growing 4.3%, up from 3.9% in the previous quarter. Together, they helped deliver Nigeria’s fastest growth in five years.

But as the economy in Africa’s most populous country expands, so does one of its most lucrative criminal industries: kidnapping. According to Lagos-based risk consultancy SBM Intelligence, 7,825 people were kidnapped in Nigeria between July 2025 and June 2026, a 66% increase over the previous year. At least 1,142 people were killed in kidnapping incidents, while confirmed ransom payments more than tripled to nearly $5.8 million.

The attacks are growing in scale, as mass abduction becomes the “new normal,” according to SBM. Last week, gunmen stormed communities around the district of Dekera in north-central Niger State, killing villagers and abducting worshippers from mosques. An armed group later released a video purporting to show roughly 600 captives, including women, children, and elderly people. While officials have yet to confirm the figures, they would make the kidnapping one of the largest in Nigeria’s recent history.

The violence presents a stark contrast with Nigeria’s economic gains – and could ultimately threaten them.

A boom that many Nigerians can’t feel. President Bola Tinubu has won praise for a series of market-friendly reforms. Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu has scrapped Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy, liberalized the foreign-exchange market, which increased access to capital, and introduced electricity tariffs to eliminate chronic deficits in the power sector. The reforms have boosted the naira, Nigeria’s currency, by 5% against the dollar this year and helped stabilize public finances. Nigeria’s stock index has risen 52% in 2026, making it the world’s fourth-best performer. The IMF projects Nigeria will be the sixth largest contributor to total world output, ahead of the economies of Germany, Brazil and Indonesia.

But that prosperity is not equally shared – and has come at a cost. Higher currency and market prices for electricity have sent the prices of food, water, electricity, fuel, and transport costs soaring. Sixty-three percent of Nigerians live below the national poverty line, while nearly 30 million face food insecurity, according to the IMF. In the north, where most of the kidnappings are concentrated, the United Nations’ World Food Program found that over 17 million people across nine states “are experiencing crisis, emergency, or catastrophic levels of hunger.” Tinubu has even been nicknamed “T-pain” as food costs rise.

Cattle traders turned bandits. That cost-of-living crisis, rural underemployment, and the prospect of “easy money” from kidnapping ransoms have helped fuel a boom in abductions, and made kidnappings a lucrative business for bandit groups. The story is also one of ethnic and sectarian conflict. Most bandits belong to the Fulani ethnic group, who are predominantly Muslim and traditionally make their living by raising animals. Their livelihoods have come under growing pressure: Climate change has reduced traditional grazing grounds, while the practice of cattle rustling, in which criminal gangs steal animals from cattle herders, has plunged entire communities into poverty. Conflicts with farmers, who mostly belong to majority Christian ethnic groups, exacerbate the problem, as grazing lands are converted into farmland.

Weak state security has allowed that violence to flourish. So has the presence of jihadist organizations such as Boko Haram, which made international headlines for the abduction of over 200 Chibok schoolgirls in 2014. The group has had success in recruiting young people with few other prospects in the northern Lake Chad area with promises of steady income. SBM estimates that a Boko Haram faction collected roughly 90% of the recorded ransom money paid in northeastern Nigeria over the past year.

The hidden tax on Nigeria’s growth. The IMF warned this year that a deterioration in domestic security could impact oil production, fiscal and export revenues by deterring investment, and aggravate poverty and food insecurity. Kidnapping for ransom also allows criminal networks to buy arms for further attacks and perpetuate a cycle of violence.

That disruption is concerning because Nigeria needs growth at a faster rate than 4% to lift millions of people out of poverty – even double digits, according to some economists. Tinubu had set a goal of 7% by 2027, but reaching that goal would require huge amounts of domestic and foreign investment – precisely the kind that worsening security could deter.

Can Tinubu turn things around? Tinubu is now facing pressure to improve security. His government has ordered rescue operations, including one that freed over 300 captives in early August, as well as another recent one for kidnapped members of the National Youth Corps in Kogi state. This week, Defense Minister General Christopher Gwabin Musa reiterated a pledge to increase resources for Nigeria’s Armed Forces and other security agencies.

The timing may be no accident: security promises to be a major issue in Nigeria’s national elections in January. If Tinubu wants to remain in power and reassure foreign investors, clamping down on kidnapping would be an effective means of doing both.